Is trend following limited to buying new highs and selling new lows?

[hapaboy]

Quote from IN2WIN:

I agree, but do so on a very small time frames, use ONLY a 5-min chart.

Yes.

 

[marketsurfer]

i thought , for sure, by now, EVERYONE knew that "the turtles" was nothing but a marketing ploy.... started by richard dennis who lost 75 % of his capital in one month april 1988 then was "removed" as advisor/ trader to his fund. ( futures magazine , july 1988 )

then the marketing maving himself--LARRY WILLIAMS--- revives the "turtle system" and begins to earn a nice income marketing it to new traders.

get real !

surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from OPC:



Yes!

They also claim that they use only reactive indicators. Does anyone know of a proactive indicator, such as one that goes ahead of price? I would like to incorporate that into my tools.

i have found that several candlestick patterns are highly proactive when applied to the proper time frame.

best,

surfer

 

[OPC]

Quote from WDGann:

Another example is that you cannot systemize the whole style. They use a logical discretion of picking out markets and signals to trade.

Could you elaborate more on logical discretion? Thanks.

From reading their interviews, it seems that both Ed Seykota and George Soros aren't trading 100% mechanical systems. Here and there they use some discretion.

On the other hand, I don't think there are 100% discretionary traders. In a sense, they also have to be systematic in their approach.

 

[inandlong]

Quote from WDGann:

That's actually an empirical observation....

Yes, but it has been quantified.

 

[WDGann]

Quote from marketsurfer:

i thought , for sure, by now, EVERYONE knew that "the turtles" was nothing but a marketing ploy.... started by richard dennis who lost 75 % of his capital in one month april 1988 then was "removed" as advisor/ trader to his fund. ( futures magazine , july 1988 )

then the marketing maving himself--LARRY WILLIAMS--- revives the "turtle system" and begins to earn a nice income marketing it to new traders.

get real !

surfer

The truth with Richard Dennis is that he started trading out of his original trading methods and started trading agressive Options strategy. He then ignored his Money Management and went bust. He was said to admit the fact that hubris made him do stupid trades, realizing himself more than ever.

Also, it was not Larry Williams but it was Russell Sands (an original Turtle) who revived it, though Russell taught Larry before the material went public. But in a sense it is true, Larry actually convinced Russell to write a book about it.

 

[WDGann]

Quote from OPC:



Could you elaborate more on logical discretion? Thanks.

From reading their interviews, it seems that both Ed Seykota and George Soros aren't trading 100% mechanical systems. Here and there they use some discretion.

On the other hand, I don't think there are 100% discretionary traders. In a sense, they also have to be systematic in their approach.

You answered your own question.

But I didn't know Soros was a mechanical trader...

 

[WDGann]

Quote from inandlong:

Waahhh... here:


While the stochastic measures what has happened to price, it tends to turn prior to the change in trend. In the sense of its interpretation, it is "proactive", as it is being used here. I prefer the term predictive to proactive.

You contradicted yourself...

 

[WDGann]

Honestly, without playing word games like 777...

I understand that a lot of discretionary traders have a sense of how they use the edge.

They find a certain pattern in an indicator and use that as a base of their trading like inandlong. They use that confidence and experience of the edge and over-ride the systematic condition into a rule.

But... most of what people "say" and "interpret" to work is mostly not statistically valid. I've had 1,000,000 of suggestions from discretionary traders that had no value for me as a system trader. Like, "5 tick x 3 Point&Figure works good when you place Bollinger on top!"... statistically (well I can over fit the signals to make it profitable) I couldn't find any viable edge into it.

Things like that... the interpretation changes time to time for a person, which is a good thing because market also change time to time. Being in sync with the market is the same as changing with the market.

Anyways, empirical conclusion are not necessarily true for everyone.

 

[PetaDollar]

Quote from WDGann:



Let's say I make a stochastic system or pivot system like what you say... most likely it won't be a profitable system.

That's exactly right. First, I use pivots as an entry once i've decided to trade, I don't trade a pivot system. Same goes for 3-bar reverals.

On the NQ3M, only 26% of the pivots on the 3m chart afforded an opportunity, however brief, to earn 7 points or more. Like anything it comes down to art. You have to be able to identify losers and get out early, and stay in for the winners. Honestly I have a little voice in my head that says "get the f**k out now, get the f**k out now". Also, like on Friday, it sometimes says "that was the high of the day. get short get short get short". Maybe I should be on lithium.