Is Trading This Easy or Am I Missing Something?

[schweiz]

But... But... I’m always right. You are forgetting rule number 3: letting your profit run. Not holding on to not performing or losing trade.

You are now confirming that "How longer you can hold something, the bigger your reward can be." is completely irrelevant.

Holding time is irrelevant. You should hold till you should sell, no matter when this moment occurs. Decision to sell has no correlation with holding time.

 

[danielc1]

You are now confirming that "How longer you can hold something, the bigger your reward can be." is completely irrelevant.

Holding time is irrelevant. You should hold till you should sell, no matter when this moment occurs. Decision to sell has no correlation with holding time.

You are mixing two things. Reason to sell something and the longer you can hold something the bigger the reward can be. Your reason for exit has nothing to do with holding time. But your reward to risk ratio can go to the roof in a good way, if your trading plan includes some form of longer holding scenario’s. An instrument only moves so much in a hour, day, week, month or year. You can not make for example 100 dollar with one share, that trades around 10$ in one hour. But you have bigger gain probability if you go past an hour, day or even a week to let it just grow to 110$ share. We can agree to disagree, but that is my experience with trading. If it not fit in your beliefds, no problem.

 

[schweiz]

You are mixing two things. Reason to sell something and the longer you can hold something the bigger the reward can be. Your reason for exit has nothing to do with holding time. But your reward to risk ratio can go to the roof in a good way, if your trading plan includes some form of longer holding scenario’s. An instrument only moves so much in a hour, day, week, month or year. You can not make for example 100 dollar with one share, that trades around 10$ in one hour. But you have bigger gain probability if you go past an hour, day or even a week to let it just grow to 110$ share. We can agree to disagree, but that is my experience with trading. If it not fit in your beliefds, no problem.

Mathematically the POTENTIAL profit can never become smaller in time.So from that point of view you are right. The potential is the difference between the highest high an the lowest low in a period. So the potential can only grow, never shrink.

But my point is that it does not mean that the longer you hold the more profits you make. Making profits has to do with good timing, not with the lenght of time. Good timing sometimes means stay very long in a trade, but sometimes it means get out earlier.

The example below is an extreme example of what I mean:

• Sell out point 1.
• Buy at point 2 gives more profit then buying at point 3.

So length of time is irrelevant; getting in and out on the right moment is important. No matter how long you were in that trade.

 

[Sprout]

Mathematically the POTENTIAL profit can never become smaller in time.So from that point of view you are right. The potential is the difference between the highest high an the lowest low in a period. So the potential can only grow, never shrink.

But my point is that it does not mean that the longer you hold the more profits you make. Making profits has to do with good timing, not with the lenght of time. Good timing sometimes means stay very long in a trade, but sometimes it means get out earlier.

The example below is an extreme example of what I mean:

• Sell out point 1.
• Buy at point 2 gives more profit then buying at point 3.

So length of time is irrelevant; getting in and out on the right moment is important. No matter how long you were in that trade.

View attachment 179803

I agree with the sentiment in the difference between trading channels vs traverses vs tapes.

In terms of your first statement, frequently after a period of volatility expansion one has volatility contraction. Thus potential profit velocity can be proven mathematically to decrease with time - even if one is on the right side of the market.

Signals of change have contextual relevance that feedback between timeframes. An entry on a Dominant short at the beginning of a trading session on a smaller timeframe is a trade all by itself or an opportunity to hold or add if one is already long on that same move as it is perceived as a non-dominant traverse of a channel on the larger timeframe.

Tapes build traverses, traverses builds channels. These lines when geometrically annotated with volume levels and pace determine the potential money velocity as the future comes into now.

Edit: per your chart, there’s a point 4. It’s the point that comes before a RTL XO - the FTT. It’s the second bar in from the hard right edge.

What’s missing is the volume, having it would determine the context exactly.

 

[schweiz]

Edit: per your chart, there’s a point 4. It’s the point that comes before a RTL XO - the FTT. It’s the second bar in from the hard right edge.

What’s missing is the volume, having it would determine the context exactly.

Yes I saw the 4th point. Just wanted to demonstrate that 3 was worse than 2 as exit. It was hypothetical.

I never watch volume as I only trade items with big volume and only intraday and RTH.