Is Trading Right for Me or Should I Stick with Poker?

[bespoke]

Quote from LEAPup:

I don't think anyone told you this, but you need to rent the DVD "Casino." I actually know Lefty Rosenthall well (Robert Deniro played his part), and he will tell you in the beginning of the movie that Vegas is for suckers. The odds are ALWAYS in the house's favor. If you win on a consistent basis, they'll get rid of you before you can blink.

If you want to "gamble," there's better ways to do it... Best of "luck" to you.

I guess you have no clue about poker.

To the OP,

I, like a few other traders here made the transition. I didn't make as much as you do playing poker because I couldn't build a large enough bankroll because of all my expenses (university, car, rent, etc). Though I averaged 50/hour at the casinos, and 40/hour online over the 2-3 years I played as my only source of income. Meh, at least it was tax free.

While I was learning how to trade I played on weekends just to stay alive. I can tell you this, trading as a job is 10x better than poker. I hated playing poker after I knew how to make money because it was such a boring grind. I suppose trading isn't that much better but at least you don't have to tell people that you play poker for a living. Sure it sounds cool when you're 21, but not later in life. And while you wait for setups you can surf the web and relax. Can't do that with your eyes glued to 8 tables. And no more 24-48 hour sessions.....

Trading is now much more profitable for me than poker was. I suggest you do both for now. Move to Vegas and trade in the morning then play poker in the evening. You'll learn how to trade quickest if you do it full time and if you don't have to worry about money. Your opportunity costs are huge. I would never stop playing until you make the same amount trading.

I went to the casino today and played for the first time in a year. Made 10 BB an hour, yippie. But was boring as hell. Even went 2.5 hours without a winning a hand. No desire to go back for this donkey.

 

[The Tripster]

Quote from days:

You definately should go to trading. $275K-$325K a year from poke make you a very top poker player. A very top trader can make $20-$30M a year. For the best in the industry, even $200M - $300M a year.

Because when you are good trader, you have leverage, you play with other peoples money (in Billions). Can you do this as a poker player ?

On your first point, this is what is brought up on all the poker forums. If you can be very good at poker, then generally you can be very good at something else. It's a matter of motivation and intelligence. In trading, there is more money to be made. I don't want to make the point that money is everything, cause it's not. There are many other factors that I am thinking about that have no relation to money that will effect which direction I'll go in my life.

Very big difference on this point. In poker, you can't leverage effectively. By getting enough extra money to play twice as high in stakes, and you're winrate will not double. This is because the higher stakes you play in, the harder they are and the more variance they have (~95% true).

 

[The Tripster]

Quote from bespoke:

While I was learning how to trade I played on weekends just to stay alive. I can tell you this, trading as a job is 10x better than poker. I hated playing poker after I knew how to make money because it was such a boring grind. I suppose trading isn't that much better but at least you don't have to tell people that you play poker for a living. Sure it sounds cool when you're 21, but not later in life. And while you wait for setups you can surf the web and relax. Can't do that with your eyes glued to 8 tables. And no more 24-48 hour sessions.....

Yep, I have no desire telling people I play poker for a living. I would try to avoid the topic as often as possible. It would also make it more difficult in keeping a girlfriend cause they tend to like stability and most would think I'm a degen.

Also true about keeping my eyes on the screen. I play 9 tables and have no time to think about other shit. Got my music to keep myself at peace.

I play almost excusively online, so hell no to 24-48 hour sessions. I can barely do a 3 hour session straight through. Live poker is extremely boring to me.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from The Tripster:

I'm curious to hear how the responses will be different asking this in a trading forum vs. the ones that are posted on poker forums. I've been playing poker for about 4-5 years and have made good money from it while going to a good college; around $275K-$325K. I have an interest in the markets and I should naturallly be able to progress into becoming a good trader because of the similarities in the pyschological side of both of them. I graduate with a Finance major this semester and I'm at the turning point in deciding if I should just stick with poker or become a trader. I've gotten offers from top tier prop trading firms. I have also opened up an account at Tradestation and trade the e-mini S&P and NASDAQ with some minor success and I enjoy doing it. In terms of compensation in both, I would expect to make between 200K-400K a year in poker playing ~30 hours a week, and obv no idea in trading (in terms of profit splits). Other factors that I'm debating are how I would rather be in a social environment vs. at home just playing poker or trading. The negative to that is how I have to have set hours plus a boss and can't take off whenever I want to do random things. The freedom of playing poker is a huge factor for me because I'm not used to being in any other type of environment. I had an internship last year and enjoyed it, and I didn't mind the set schedule, but considering that was for only 3 months vs. a full time job might change my mind. Based on these set of facts, do you think I should stick with poker or give trading at a good firm a shot?

Go for the one you love doing.

You've already proven poker ability. So you could try trading, and if you hate it or suck at it, you can always go back and make money playing poker to make $$$. Be aware though that trading is different in some important respects, especially risk-taking (in pl/nl poker you get an edge from being unafraid of taking risks; in trading its the opposite) and changing cycles.

Personally I find poker boring and one-dimensional, and couldn't imagine spending the best years of my life mastering what is in effect just a game of cards. I feel the same about daytrading, whereas I find investment and speculation to be extremely interesting. Hence I concentrate on the latter.

So my advice would be try the trading, see how you like it, and if you get the bug, go for it. Don't do poker just because the money is reasonable.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from The Tripster:

This is key. I know there is no way I would ever be content just playing poker for the rest of my life. I would have to go into other opprotunities later on in life. Most likely real estate or other investments. I enjoy finance so I could never really leave the field as a whole.

Also, I play almost exclusively online. The political environment is a factor in what my winrate is. If McCain won the election, I would go into trading in a heartbeat because of the policies he wants to put in place. Obama is at least not against poker. Realistically, I could see myself playing poker for a max of 10 years before getting really bored of it.

Also, I know most people will call bs on me, and I really don't care. The responses I get on here are vastly different compared to responses on poker forums. Ironically, I know 2 people that made around 600K-800K playing poker a year that pretty much completely quit to go into trading at top firms and most people on the forums believed they did the right thing by switching into trading.

Be careful about the idea of doing poker for 5-10 years then switching. That's the old career mistake of doing something you don't really want to do, for the sake of money. The result is always the same - you end up staying in longer than you planned, and you end up getting too old and with too many ties & responsibilities, and too much "easy" income to feel safe switching. You will be 8-15 years behind people who did trading from the start. Late 20s/early 30s is really kinda late to be learning trading.

I would say you should get into trading/markets now, and try to land a job at a good firm (prop is not a good option really IMO, unless your CV sucks). Getting experience is key, and that's best done with other experienced traders who make money. Also consider your feelings on real estate - most people who are suited to trading are *not* suited to real estate (although there are exceptions). Real estate is a very time intensive business, that involves lots of red tape, people management, hassle & nitty gritty. It usually suits efficient, organised people who are good at managing day to day problems. Traders are usually good abstract thinkers, often ADD, and not particularly great at real world nitty gritty BS. Ditto with poker players. It is rare to see someone who excels at both. There is no such thing as passive real estate income - as a landlord you earn every cent.

Poker will always exist, you can always go back to it if necessary. Even if the US bans it totally, you can play abroad. Grinding poker for 200k and independence beats grinding a shitty job for 40k with a boss and regular working hours. So it's a backup.

Your responses say you don't really feel poker is for you as a lifetime thing. So I'd suggest give trading a shot. The key skill is pattern recognition, which is similar to poker. Just make sure you develop your risk control, it's the one thing that most poker players suck at.

 

[mrman500]

Trading...definately.

 

[gaj]

here's the situations you've got:

you do well at poker, better than most ppl could ever dream of doing. is it sustainable? only you honestly know. if the fish dry up, you've got problems, which means that the level you can take poker to is limited.

in some regards, trading is the same, but it takes a lot longer to reach your max. point where you can't go higher. that's because there's so many more market participants, eventually you reach a size that is too large, but you'd generally be raking lots of money before you reach that level.

you've got to enjoy doing what you do, i like my trading because of the freedom, and although i do research every day and lots of reading, it doesn't feel like a chore.

by the way, i've got a few little trading edges which i do well with. i've played poker at the cheap levels (SNG $10/20, PLO .10/.25, .25/.50) and don't make much, relative to those levels. i've remarked to some friends that i couldn't imagine having to play poker for a living, because of the grind - but i suspect that people would say the same thing about trading.

(EDIT) oh, one other thing - in poker, an individual can be the big fish in your pond (table) much easier than trading.

 

[Joab]

Quote from The Tripster:

This is key. I know there is no way I would ever be content just playing poker for the rest of my life. I would have to go into other opprotunities later on in life. Most likely real estate or other investments. I enjoy finance so I could never really leave the field as a whole.

Also, I play almost exclusively online. The political environment is a factor in what my winrate is. If McCain won the election, I would go into trading in a heartbeat because of the policies he wants to put in place. Obama is at least not against poker. Realistically, I could see myself playing poker for a max of 10 years before getting really bored of it.

Also, I know most people will call bs on me, and I really don't care. The responses I get on here are vastly different compared to responses on poker forums. Ironically, I know 2 people that made around 600K-800K playing poker a year that pretty much completely quit to go into trading at top firms and most people on the forums believed they did the right thing by switching into trading.

I understand.

I love poker because if the social aspects of the game (I only play live).

Trading is my bread and butter though and even though I do well with poker I would not just give up my bread and butter till I could easily afford to.

Save up about 6 months worth of income and give trading a shot or even better try and do both, even if you have to do both part time at the same time.

Best of luck to you and try and ignore the wanna bee's on this site who are just frustrated with trading.

The main difference between traders and poker players is that trading has a learning curve of 3-5 years where poker players who take the game seriously can usually make money within one year.

 

[Joab]

Quote from Cutten:

Be careful about the idea of doing poker for 5-10 years then switching. That's the old career mistake of doing something you don't really want to do, for the sake of money. The result is always the same - you end up staying in longer than you planned, and you end up getting too old and with too many ties & responsibilities, and too much "easy" income to feel safe switching.

You make a very good point.

I would prefer to be a high stakes poker player right now rather than a trader but after 25 years in this business I can't because I have grown accustom to the money.

 

[good one]

Quote from gaj:

(EDIT) oh, one other thing - in poker, an individual can be the big fish in your pond (table) much easier than trading. [/B]

First off, very cool post Tripster...as you can see this board has a very large % of complete morons.
If you have offers from firms I would take it in a second if they are talking about you trading their money.
If you have to use your own money its at least worth a shot.
I would say the only real difference with trading is that there are no small tables to sit at, you will be sitting at a million seat table up against the very best in the world on every hand. If elitetrader had its own market it would be easy with all the suckers at the table..
However, that is not how it works. You can make alot more money trading but because of that its levels of magnitude harder than poker just from the players it attracts.