Is trading really risky?

Quote from wally_:



I posted one simple technique that time and again makes you money even if not that frequently: 61.8% FR within 30 min bar.
Today was another day that this simple setup worked and what's particularly relevant to this thread you could clearly define your risk within it. Well, as far as I am concerned, it was not worth it because one individual just told me that I should consult a shrink. Not that I care about it, but to answer your question: people may sometimes cease to be altruistic because it is simply not worth the trouble. It's one thing to be altruistic and it's another to fight whiners and losers just because something you told them works.

I also wanted to share one of my mechanical systems with the public. I will still do it, but this time I will not make a mistake of being altruistic.

So perhaps we should ask another question: why do you expect others to be altruistic if you cannot appreciate that? I am not addressing it to you, but in general.
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1 : unselfish regard for or devotion to the welfare of others

when one expects praise, one is not altruistic
when one receives disdain and becomes upset, one is not altruistic

from all the posting i've seen on these boards, only a few people really take the time to help with and share their knowledge (many like to boast). however, to consider them altruistic would be absurd. they're here to learn and relate and maybe just expel a little boredom, and if they can, help a little on the way... hardly selfless. generous, yes... i've definitley learned a lot. thanks to those who take the time.
 
Quote from andrasnm:


There are lies, big lies and statistics.
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What do you have against statistics? It's just a tool - imperfect, of course. Can be useful. Ask quant traders... At least some of them make money :D
 
Wally,

**
I posted one simple technique that time and again makes you money even if not that frequently: 61.8% FR within 30 min bar.
**

What are the rules for this method?
What was today's entry point, stop and exit point?

Thanks!
 
The big problem is, in trading, unlike most jobs, if you fail, you don't just not make money. you lose money, and even the stupidest business has at least some kind of positive expectancy, whereas many trading systems if traded perfectly according to the rules will still make you broke.

And you can't just work hard and find it, and brains won't do it either, and luck is no help if you can't systematically capture it.

But other than all that, I agree it's great because you don't have to worry about anything accept yourself and a few small bills (small in comparison to a really bad day.)
 
"What do you have against statistics? It's just a tool - imperfect, of course. Can be useful. Ask quant traders... At least some of them make money"

Of course - I just think a quick quote of 95% of businesses fail and a paralell quote "95% of traders fail" hence the two must be equal risk type thinking is somehow faulty. Statistics and quants have their day under the sun as well as the hotdog vendor in NYC.
 
Quote from OPTIONAL777:



Well, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but I did look at franchises back 10 years ago or so.

At that time, you could buy vending machine routes with proven money streams for 25K.

I don't know what the cost would be now. People still drink sodas, and buy candy and chips, don't they?

I am not saying these small business "franchises" like the vending machine business are get rich deals, but they do produce steady streams....especially if you can hire some flunky to do the actual work (given that the flunky won't nickle and dime your profits).

Naturally, most name brand franchises are going to cost a lot more, but you would be surprised how some low tech, low profit meaningless businesses are out there that produce a small but steady stream of income.

As far as Don Bright goes, can I prove that he is a marketing machine who has a bottom line of new recruits for Bright Trading so that he can participate in the revenue stream from their commissions, and that he employs sales and marketing techniques to do so, and that he takes advantage of the Forum because he is a paying sponsor?

Can anyone prove intention? Reaching an idea about another's real intentions is a conclusion, not a provable fact.

I did ask Baron one time if Don pays for the space he takes up in the Forum, as in essence his posts are just ads for Bright Trading, and I never got an answer....which was enough of an answer for me to reach my own conclusions.
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777,

for someone who mistook his own piss for apple juice, you are extremely "cutting." :D i researched vending machines (candy) and kiddy rides years ago and almost bought 1/2 a business. when you think about businesses, think about barriers to entry; then think what a sure-thing selling sodas is? then think what happens when your machines "walk" across the border to TJ (im here in san diego). i also researched Laundromats, which looked good, until i was told the city fees were like $6,000 a machine - so i had to pay the city $300,000 for the right to risk my capital - again, thats $300K before the machines, T.I., lease/building, etc! i dont know of too many sure things, if you start from scratch. fact is, i cant think of any!

the beauty of trading is that there is a relatively low barrier to entry, limited start-up capital and as long as you dont totally implode, you only lose what you invest (unlike businesses). also, it is not a fixed-location business. no inventory. no long-term commitments. no pledging of assets. etc, etc, etc. the only problem is that it is very difficult to master, and i suspect that like businesses, many traders are initially undercapitalized both in terms of trading capital and intellectual capital (experience/expectations).

BTW, i wouldnt accuse someone of lying without serious proof, but maybe your were raised differently. that's not a accusation that is taken lightly in most circles. just food for thought - i think that's out of place on ET.
 
My ex owns vending machines. Suits him, he is one lazy person. He would find an easy way to make a living!

Sometimes what someone means is not exactly what he writes. That is the problem with forums.
Other times, we get to know exactly what is on their mind:eek:
 
Quote from QQQBALL:



777,

for someone who mistook his own piss for apple juice, you are extremely "cutting." :D i researched vending machines (candy) and kiddy rides years ago and almost bought 1/2 a business. when you think about businesses, think about barriers to entry; then think what a sure-thing selling sodas is? then think what happens when your machines "walk" across the border to TJ (im here in san diego). i also researched Laundromats, which looked good, until i was told the city fees were like $6,000 a machine - so i had to pay the city $300,000 for the right to risk my capital - again, thats $300K before the machines, T.I., lease/building, etc! i dont know of too many sure things, if you start from scratch. fact is, i cant think of any!

the beauty of trading is that there is a relatively low barrier to entry, limited start-up capital and as long as you dont totally implode, you only lose what you invest (unlike businesses). also, it is not a fixed-location business. no inventory. no long-term commitments. no pledging of assets. etc, etc, etc. the only problem is that it is very difficult to master, and i suspect that like businesses, many traders are initially undercapitalized both in terms of trading capital and intellectual capital (experience/expectations).

BTW, i wouldnt accuse someone of lying without serious proof, but maybe your were raised differently. that's not a accusation that is taken lightly in most circles. just food for thought - i think that's out of place on ET.
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Did Slick Willy lie when he said "I did not have sex with that woman....."

Technically, he did not lie, at least according to the definition of sex as it was used in the legal context of his statements.

However, ask anyone if he lied......

Does Don tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth without any embellishments or cosmetics added to enhance his marketing efforts?

So the difference between lying and telling the truth is often a technicality.

When a saleman says we are the best, and there is no ranking system to define best, did the salesman lie?

Only the salesman knows what was in his heart when he made the statement, we can only guess.
 
Quote from OPTIONAL777:

When a saleman says we are the best, and there is no ranking system to define best, did the salesman lie?
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That is not lying. However, that IS puffery.
 
Dearest Cathy - you recommend bonds and bills as low-risk. How did I lose $45K in one hour trading two-year notes?
 
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