is trading oil just trading the dollar

java said:
A barrel of oil will produce the same btu today or tommorow. A barrel of dollars may buy a car today and only a meal tommorow.
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I will take the barrel of dollars in gold one dollar coins thank you very much. Going to need to get huge forklift for this.:)
 
Handle123 said:
I feel Dollar may have topped and headed down and Currencies have either bottomed or will bottom soon. But regarding Dollar and Oil, they are opposite of each other. Crude Oil making Head & Shoulders pattern on the monthly.
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I was under the impression that the Euro and the Pound were likely to fall in the near to medium term and I saw something about the Australian dollar declining but I don't recall the source. Generally speaking, doesn't the dollar rise when other currencies fall?

BTW, they found a major oil field in Alaska. It has the potential to pump 200k barrels a day.
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In total the site is expected to hold 6 billion to 10 billion barrels of oil, of which about 2.4 billion are recoverable.

The site is in shallow waters in Smith Bay, near the northern tip of Alaska.

Caelus said that if the discovery turns out to be real, the field would be more fertile than the Alpine unit run by ConocoPhillips, Alaska's largest oil producer, which began production in 2000 and peaked at 139,000 barrels a day in 2007.

http://www.businessinsider.com/caelus-oil-discovery-in-alaska-arctic-2016-10
 
If you run the raw numbers for the CME Crude Oil futures contract and the ICE Dollar Index contract through correlation analyses, you definitely find enough variation in the on-the-run data to maybe not be so energetic about making a blanket statement. I went out to two years, and just the one month and the six month report results had enough variation that I personally wouldn't run a lead - lag strategy or an inter market spread between the two. In fact, there was enough variation between the one month and three month otr data for me to conclude the same.

My two cents, YMMV.
 
DallasCowboysFan said:
I was under the impression that the Euro and the Pound were likely to fall in the near to medium term and I saw something about the Australian dollar declining but I don't recall the source. Generally speaking, doesn't the dollar rise when other currencies fall?

BTW, they found a major oil field in Alaska. It has the potential to pump 200k barrels a day.
-------------

In total the site is expected to hold 6 billion to 10 billion barrels of oil, of which about 2.4 billion are recoverable.

The site is in shallow waters in Smith Bay, near the northern tip of Alaska.

Caelus said that if the discovery turns out to be real, the field would be more fertile than the Alpine unit run by ConocoPhillips, Alaska's largest oil producer, which began production in 2000 and peaked at 139,000 barrels a day in 2007.

http://www.businessinsider.com/caelus-oil-discovery-in-alaska-arctic-2016-10
More...
Its also light crude which is good to lower the viscosity (thickness) of the heavier crude to shove it all done the line.

From my best understanding (and i may be wrong but probably not) all oil is sold in us dollars. So there has to be correlation between the two. Direct or indirect. Now it might not be as profound as having a direct change of the currency value. But most certainly it helps the underlying support of the dollar.
 
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