Is Trading Just Guessing?

[Aas]

Quote from jeffalvinson:

For me trading is like being a life insurance company:
"I am assuming and managing risk based on historical mathematical probabilities."

I am also like a retail produce (fruit and vegetable) store:
"I don't pay the retail price price for inventory, I pay wholesale
and sell at retail, and I can't keep my inventory too long or it will spoil (expire)."

Jeff

Many will say it does not matter what market you trade. This is pure and utter rubbish!

You only trade the market that will allow you to make a certain % return for a certain % risk.

Forget about all the big-shots and their multimillion dollar accounts.

The sooner one realizes that certain markets are more suited for the retail trader than others, the better.

Of course, you will always have those who think they can;

make a silk purse out of a sow's ear

Such people will not be around too long to discover the reality of trading.

You get exactly what you deserve in this game!

 

[alsimpson88]

Guessing is telling a solution to a riddle, in trading You are using multiple data and are putting them together in order to invest and get good returns, without being left on Bankruptcy on the way.
Be on the plus side and may your trades lead you on.

 

[whale]

It has guessing & analytical both parts. It doesn't only depend on guessing, its beyond that.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from whale:

It has guessing & analytical both parts. It doesn't only depend on guessing, its beyond that.

41 pages, and nobody asks, "What's so wrong about guessing?"

They give you two choices

You can make money working hard

or you can make money guessing right

 

[Aas]

Quote from oldtime:

41 pages, and nobody asks, "What's so wrong about guessing?"

They give you two choices

You can make money working hard

or you can make money guessing right

Everyone knows what working hard means, so the big question is;

"How do you guess right"

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Aas:

Everyone knows what working hard means, so the big question is;

"How do you guess right"

if I knew how to guess right it wouldn't be guessing

otherwise, everybody has their idea how to guess right more than wrong, or guess right bigger and guess wrong smaller

if you don't think you are guessing, you are getting dangerously close to deception and complacency

me personally? I listen to what people say. I can usually spot somebody that is not talking bullshit. I just assume 99.99% is all bullshit, so when that .01 comes around it stands out from all the rest. Sometimes people talk with words, but usually they talk with prices in the market.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from oldtime:

if I knew how to guess right it wouldn't be guessing

otherwise, everybody has their idea how to guess right more than wrong, or guess right bigger and guess wrong smaller

if you don't think you are guessing, you are getting dangerously close to deception and complacency

me personally? I listen to what people say. I can usually spot somebody that is not talking bullshit. I just assume 99.99% is all bullshit, so when that .01 comes around it stands out from all the rest. Sometimes people talk with words, but usually they talk with prices in the market.

I have 4 fx currency pairs on now, and as far as I'm concerned it is just all bullshit. One player wins a pot then the next one wins a pot, nobody's stack changes that dramatically, and this can go on for a long, long time. They will tell stories. Some of them are out and out lies, some of them are true, but exaggerated.

It may go on for days, it may go on for weeks

But the great thing about trading is, you don't have to have the best hand, you just need to bet on who has the best hand

and one time, somebody will do something out of character. It may just be the tone of his voice, or he bets more or less than normal.

and it will become obvious, he is not bullshitting, so he probably has the nuts

and that is what you were waiting for

so you bet on him to win

and when they ask you how you knew

you just shrug and say, "I just guessed right."

 

[Mysteron]

Quote from Aas:

Everyone knows what working hard means, so the big question is;

"How do you guess right"

By following a process that has been proven to be profitable in the long run, and which avoids large drawdowns. The search for that process is where most will fail as they don't know how to separate fact from fiction.

 

[intervention]

Yes you can say it is guessing of market trend . May be it come true or not. We analyze market to do trading in a direction where we can find profit . But all the time our guess is not exact . hat is why we are in loss.

 

[marketsurfer]

It's guessing on multiple levels. It's guessing when to enter, when to exit, how much to bet, how long to stay in, etc. that's what makes it so much fun!