Is Trading Just Guessing?

[Aas]

Quote from Mysteron:

Ah well, as no one is playing maybe this'll get the ball rolling.

If a 1% average return per day can be achieved consistently then with compounding it would take 463 trading days to make $100k from $1k. Surely someone here is capable of 1% average rate of return consistently each day?

If a 5% average return can be achieved consistently then it would take 95 days to make $100k, is anyone here capable of that performance?

Its best to bet on the most probable outcome, but
of course anything can happen at any time.

Traders with the biggest $ account, fastest computers and most expensive information one can access can not make even 1% per month. How is a retail trader going to make 1% per day!

There are many misconceptions about trading, the biggest being the amount of money you can make per day. That said, anything is possible for one who has the mindset and ability to see and act beyond the normal activities of "the crowd".

Is someone capable of making 1% average per day?
Yes.
What is the approximate ratio?
About 1 in a million.
As you can see the odds are fairly stacked against the retail trader from day one, but the big question is why?

"Why does the retail trader stand a chance of about 1 in a million to achieve a return of 1% per day on available trading capital"

 

[xburbx]

Because he trades and thinks like a retail trader which has no bearing on the market. Retail traders accounts don't matter . If you think like a retail trader you will get what a retail trader usually gets. They usually lose. Making 1% then becomes 1 in a million

 

[baro-san]

Quote from Aas:

...

I noticed one of your posts, and I browsed a few others. I found some of your statements interesting, and some of your (rhetorical ?) questions to be intriguing, so I googled a couple of your references. One yielded an interesting site, but the next one was a $29.99 subscription on how to make money from thin air. So, now I wonder if you're a real deal or just a scam artist. It's like with your screen name which could be a play on "ace", or on "ass". The future will tell us

 

[Aas]

Quote from xburbx:

Because he trades and thinks like a retail trader which has no bearing on the market. Retail traders accounts don't matter . If you think like a retail trader you will get what a retail trader usually gets. They usually lose. Making 1% then becomes 1 in a million

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

There are many other Yes as well, but let us not get into the usual rhetoric carried out by most, as you know where this will get you.

If you are not making money trading then you need to stop and ask yourself why? There are many reasons why and all are common to the retail trader. I will not rattle them out as it is just a waste of time and effort.

You are a retail trader making no money.
You are fed up with all the usual repetitive stuff that you read and see on internet and tv.
You want to do things differently but for some reason just seem to keep going round and round in circles, getting nowhere.

"What do you need to do in order to effect change and start to make a difference in relation to your repetitive time wasting efforts"

 

[xburbx]

Stop thinking and acting like a retail trader.

 

[Aas]

Quote from baro-san:

I noticed one of your posts, and I browsed a few others. I found some of your statements interesting, and some of your (rhetorical ?) questions to be intriguing, so I googled a couple of your references. One yielded an interesting site, but the next one was a $29.99 subscription on how to make money from thin air. So, now I wonder if you're a real deal or just a scam artist. It's like with your screen name which could be a play on "ace", or on "ass". The future will tell us

氏バーロ、
私は他のトレーダーからお金を取る。
氏Aas

 

[Aas]

Quote from xburbx:

Stop thinking and acting like a retail trader.

So you now do what you say and stop thinking and acting like a retail trader. How is that going to effect change?

Odds are you will end up doing nothing of any real significance and end up back in the same old rut in a few short weeks.

"Why do most people, with the best intentions in the world, end up really getting nowhere and just keep going round and round in circles"

 

[jeffalvinson]

For me trading is like being a life insurance company:
"I am assuming and managing risk based on historical mathematical probabilities."

I am also like a retail produce (fruit and vegetable) store:
"I don't pay the retail price price for inventory, I pay wholesale
and sell at retail, and I can't keep my inventory too long or it will spoil (expire)."

Jeff

 

[Mysteron]

Quote from Aas:

Traders with the biggest $ account, fastest computers and most expensive information one can access can not make even 1% per month. How is a retail trader going to make 1% per day!

There are many misconceptions about trading, the biggest being the amount of money you can make per day. That said, anything is possible for one who has the mindset and ability to see and act beyond the normal activities of "the crowd".

Is someone capable of making 1% average per day?
Yes.
What is the approximate ratio?
About 1 in a million.
As you can see the odds are fairly stacked against the retail trader from day one, but the big question is why?

"Why does the retail trader stand a chance of about 1 in a million to achieve a return of 1% per day on available trading capital"

Of course the argument I made was very simplistic. A 1% gain per day seems reasonable but its easy to see some issues with that. Trading with a $1k account to make 1% requires a gain of just $10 after commission, which would not seem difficult by trading just 100 shares say. One UK broker CMC Markets currently charges $4 round trip per 100 shares with no minimum commission. So to gain 1% profit for 100 shares actually requires the trade to make 1.4% or $14. The same broker is about to introduce a minimum commission of $20 round trip. As a result, to make $10 profit will require $30 gain on a trade of 100 shares, or equivalently to make 1% profit requires 3% gain on capital for the trade. To make consistent profits while trading a small account with those minimum commission rates seems unlikely as the broker has stacked the odds against the trader.

For a larger trading account of say $100,000 then 1% gain per day is $1000 and if that requires larger trade sizes of say 5000~10000 shares the problem will then be executing orders and having to spread them out over a number of seperate trades. So its not just a matter of scaling up the same trading approach from a small account.

Anyone starting with a small account is almost certainly going to fail and give up unless they can keep costs low enough to survive long enough to gain the experience to see what works and what doesn't, to be able to spot the idiots, not to be taken in by all the rubbish that abounds and not to fight oneself.

 

[Aas]

Quote from Mysteron:

Of course the argument I made was very simplistic. A 1% gain per day seems reasonable but its easy to see some issues with that. Trading with a $1k account to make 1% requires a gain of just $10 after commission, which would not seem difficult by trading just 100 shares say. One UK broker CMC Markets currently charges $4 round trip per 100 shares with no minimum commission. So to gain 1% profit for 100 shares actually requires the trade to make 1.4% or $14. The same broker is about to introduce a minimum commission of $20 round trip. As a result, to make $10 profit will require $30 gain on a trade of 100 shares, or equivalently to make 1% profit requires 3% gain on capital for the trade. To make consistent profits while trading a small account with those minimum commission rates seems unlikely as the broker has stacked the odds against the trader.

For a larger trading account of say $100,000 then 1% gain per day is $1000 and if that requires larger trade sizes of say 5000~10000 shares the problem will then be executing orders and having to spread them out over a number of seperate trades. So its not just a matter of scaling up the same trading approach from a small account.

Anyone starting with a small account is almost certainly going to fail and give up unless they can keep costs low enough to survive long enough to gain the experience to see what works and what doesn't, to be able to spot the idiots, not to be taken in by all the rubbish that abounds and not to fight oneself.

You will not see experienced horse backers throwing away their money on the outsiders!

Advertising is everywhere in modern day society, and for most, they fall for the silly and ridiculous persuasions.

7.00 am, and the alarm clock has sounded it's familiar tune. Next time you get out of bed, it may help you to know that today you are going to be subjected to the same, if not more, silly ways of persuasion.

Trading! What has this got to do with trading?

Everything, if you are silly enough to let it be so.

Stupid is as stupid does