Is Trading Just Guessing?

just threw that out there, they work like your geometric calculations,cause or coincide with big moves, maybe 7 out of 10..i dont trade them but like to be aware of
 
Quote from Aas:

Most people have about the same chance of winning at trading as they do at winning the lotto.
The reason why is very simple in that they do not know what they are doing and take heed of endless rubbish as if they were the only real truths.
In doing so they fail to see the real truth and thus end up playing the lotto instead of playing to win.

"Why have stock market prices risen (especially) in the last 4 months with all the doom and gloom of the worst financial crisis to hit since 1929. In light of what has transpired over the recent past stock prices should be much lower"
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and the real truth would be that we are manipulated and regarded as cannon fodder by those in control?
 
No trading is not a guessing business.
It just depends on your skill and knowledge..
Who have good skill in trading they can do well in trading.
Sometimes it depends on your luck because no one can give you 100% surety to get earning in very day..
So for that I think you are not taking trading as a guessing business.
 
You will not find a legitimate professional trader; that is, someone who actually trades markets in order to make a living and support a household, who would agree that trading is just guessing.

Having said that, there are no absolutes in trading. Joe Kennedy Sr. during the month of October in the year 1929 being a notable exception. If you need absolutes, please find another profession. A US Federal Government Job comes to mind.
 
if i measure a wall to 104 5/8,cut a 2 x 4 to fit,i know it will fit,that is not guessing, if i short oil at 87,hoping not knowing it goes to 86,that is a guess,no matter how many variables you use to make the decision to put on the trade
 
There's a big difference between probability and guessing and then there's the element of.....experience. For the vast majority trading is guessing I suppose. Buffett once said something to the effect of, "if you don't know what you're doing you don't belong in the business." Trading is a craft, not unlike any other type of craft.

Quote from ammo:

if i measure a wall to 104 5/8,cut a 2 x 4 to fit,i know it will fit,that is not guessing, if i short oil at 87,hoping not knowing it goes to 86,that is a guess,no matter how many variables you use to make the decision to put on the trade
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It is like in Poker. On a long run little differences make all. You will see that some small % of people are almost every time on final table of "forex"...
 
Quote from davroz:

and the real truth would be that we are manipulated and regarded as cannon fodder by those in control?
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I do not have the stock market % of capital per month traded by the retail section and if I did I think it would be of no real significance.
If this be so then the cannon fodder analogy is unfounded in the general scheme.
To be manipulated you must be of a certain mindset.
To not allow yourself to be manipulated you must also be of a different mindset.
Either way you still have to take a guess but the outcome will of course depend on what mindset you were in when you placed the trade.

"If this be true then what is more important, your mindset or your guessing"
 
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