Is Trading Just Guessing?

[murray t turtle]

Quote from macattack:

Isn’t the decision to enter a trade nothing more than a guess?

Guess: To predict (a result or an event) without sufficient information.

Some genius from MIT can spend 10 years developing some extremely complex system at a cost of a million dollars, & it would still probably do no better than some guy with a high school diploma who Has 20 years of experience & the ability to make calm, logical “guesses”.

It reminds me of sports betting. Even the sportscasters on tv who should know way more than anyone else can’t even predict half the games right each week. You would think they could, but like the markets, there are so many variables you just don’t know.

It seems like the keys in trading have more to do with experience, risk control, bet size, having a strong mind, etc. As far as entering a trade everyone, from the little guy to the
multi-million dollar corporation, seem to have about the same winning %’s when successful……….because for everybody it’s the same……….it’s just a Guess !

==============
Big Mac A;
You make some real thoughtful trend comments.

Except[a]Its not about prediction, probabilities may help.
Its not betting, nor was the disagreement between Rich Dennis & William E a ''bet''.[Source Futures magazine, past several years]

c-Chicago]MIT & 10 years/multimillion $ystem may be a disadvantage;
a Chicago trader noted ''the smarter you are the longer it takes''

However to use your word ''predict'' This ''prediction may not be infallible, but i ''predict'' if you do not work hard & trade small untill you are profitable in bull & bear trends, you probably will not make it. Zig Ziglar said ''See You at The Top''

 

[bali_survivor]

Quote from macattack:

Isn’t the decision to enter a trade nothing more than a guess?

Guess: To predict (a result or an event) without sufficient information.

There is sufficient information at times which makes it a no-guess.

 

[TraderSystem]

Is this topic similar to those threads discussing on whether Trading is like Poker or Backgammon or even gambling?

 

[aromata]

Quote from TraderSystem:

Is this topic similar to those threads discussing on whether Trading is like Poker or Backgammon or even gambling?

Poker is very much a matter of risk management. In that sense there are similarities.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from TraderSystem:

Is this topic similar to those threads discussing on whether Trading is like... gambling?

===============
Trend trader System;
Well true in that when we gambled a teens in a pool hall;
quarters were used So i see your point.

Gambling is so different in that its illegal in so many areas;
gambling is a word also used a synonymn for excessive risk.

So no, its not really like gambling at all. If you think its the same;
go to LasVegas & count cards, see how they treat /mistreat winners,
compared to how a stock or derivative broker treats winners.

Also another name for the lottery is a stupid tax on people that cannot do math. Hope this helps, it helped me.

 

[oldtime]

lottery ticket? Buy a Big Dream for a Dollar

 

[Cheese]

Is Trading Just Guessing?
No.

Its a question of probabilities. You can construct a methodology giving very high probability signals to trade. But you have to commit yourself to rationality and logic.

You recognise what you are looking at on price charts. Gyrations. And gyrations are the swings of price; upswings followed by downswings (or vice versa) in sequence. This means day trading for the lone trader. You trade sequentially the swings of price.

Choose a liquid and volatile market (eg CL). But log the metrics of the market you are trading. Know the ballpark you are operating in.

So where does the idea of guessing come from? From any combination of all or any one or more of frequently demonstrated human drawbacks such as insufficient market learning, insufficient experience, insufficient application, a weak temperament and poor problem solving capabilities.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Cheese:

You recognise what you are looking at on price charts. Gyrations. And gyrations are the swings of price; upswings followed by downswings (or vice versa) in sequence. This means day trading for the lone trader. You trade sequentially the swings of price.

That's all we do as traders, trade swings of price. The novice will do well to study significant price swings as if s/he is a detective attempting solve a crime. Study the footprints/fingerprints price leaves behind in a selected time frame and solve the mystery of what caused price to suddenly swing from here to there.

Make detailed notes about every possible clue price offered prior to initiating a significant (tradeable) swing. Once you've observed enough "crime scenes" in your selected time frame and made detailed notes, you'll begin to notice patterns that repeat, some far more often than others.

That's the foundation for solving the mystery of price action and developing a strong trading plan.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from NoDoji:

That's all we do as traders, trade swings of price. The novice will do well to study significant price swings as if s/he is a detective attempting solve a crime. Study the footprints/fingerprints price leaves behind in a selected time frame and solve the mystery of what caused price to suddenly swing from here to there.

Make detailed notes about every possible clue price offered prior to initiating a significant (tradeable) swing. Once you've observed enough "crime scenes" in your selected time frame and made detailed notes, you'll begin to notice patterns that repeat, some far more often than others.

That's the foundation for solving the mystery of price action and developing a strong trading plan.

I don't think I'd want to get around many crime scenes, so I hope your trading hasn't been one.

 

[Blotto]

Quote from Cheese:
you have to commit yourself to rationality and logic.

Truly the most empowering choice an individual can make. It is a choice available to everyone, all of the time, if they wish it.

Unfortunately most do not choose rationality, and therefore they choose a life of victimhood, disappointment, and failure. The great self delusion is that the individual is not in control of his life. A comfortable delusion for many as the notion of absolute self responsibility is terrifying to them.

What is beautiful is that the correct attitude and approach to succeed in trading brings success in everything we do. Just learning to ask the right questions and use a rational approach puts the individual ahead of the many who choose not to think.

I am now learning why most are not educable, why most choose to stay where they are comfortable. On ET it seems impossible to help failing traders - they wish to live their trading life like their other life - where things happen to them, where they cannot have everything they want, where inexactitude, failure, and compromise are the familiar landmarks.

So when you tell them that accuracy is possible, it is anathema. They need the disorder, the inexactitude, the chaos, and lets not forget the free reign to indulge their fantasies and delusions whether they have a rational basis or not.

While the mentally strong can through introspection, hard work, and a love of truth come to the appropriate conclusions, it appears that the majority are doomed by social conditioning. It is unfortunate that society is now organised to nurture and perpetuate helpless attitudes, however as in everything survival of the fittest!

As for the rational attitudes - I find these only in others who have marked themselves out for big success, and in children who have a natural curiosity and love of truth.