Is Trading Just Guessing?

wow, that one is cool....

“If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.”
 
Quote from HATEtheRisk:

wow, that one is cool....

“If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.”
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that's why tournement play is interesting and safe, because all 3 of those things are decided for you ahead of time. Many great cash game players are net losers in tournements because the law of "keep doing it and eventually it will work" doesn't work because they simply run out of chips before time can rescue them.
 
But getting back to OPs question, any player who can make it to the final table more than once shows some kind of skill that is so far beyond guessing that it couldn't even be displayed on a chalkboard before the days of computers.

otherwise, of all profesional money managers, only 45% beat the market in a year (according to Morningstar) and only 35% beat it two years in a row, and only 10% beat it three years consecutively.

So that means my 90 year old mother in her S&P index fund outperforms 90% of all money managers over three years and that includes all the guys you hear on CNBC guessing what they think the market is going to do.
 
Quote from oldtime:

that's why tournement play is interesting and safe, because all 3 of those things are decided for you ahead of time. Many great cash game players are net losers in tournements because the law of "keep doing it and eventually it will work" doesn't work because they simply run out of chips before time can rescue them.
More...

Yes, thats why there are different strategies for cash games and for tournaments !!! Also for cash games: heads up or 2-4 players or with more than 4 players.

For every scenario you must play different, to keep the odds on your side !!!

If you make any mistake and miss your chance you will loose.

the easiest game here is cash game with 5 - 8 players, there you always can choose the best cards, without time is killing you !!!
 
Quote from oldtime:

But getting back to OPs question, any player who can make it to the final table more than once shows some kind of skill that is so far beyond guessing that it couldn't even be displayed on a chalkboard before the days of computers.

otherwise, of all profesional money managers, only 45% beat the market in a year (according to Morningstar) and only 35% beat it two years in a row, and only 10% beat it three years consecutively.

So that means my 90 year old mother in her S&P index fund outperforms 90% of all money managers over three years and that includes all the guys you hear on CNBC guessing what they think the market is going to do.
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LOL. :p :p :p
I hope so for your mother. HAHAHAHA
(You must tell this to the next banker who wants to sell you some bullshit...LOL)

So, yes for poker and trading, it is guessing,
BUT,
it is guessing with knowing the odds %.
or, in other words its betting on odds %.

for example:
i guess i will win with this bet/trade with a 80% success probability. Is this ok for me ? Yes i take the bet !!! So, i also guess that the 20% against me, could happen !!!
Maybe more important is, how much are the odds %, that i will not lose any money with this bet ??? The higer the better !!!

In poker you lose all the time, once your money is in the pot, it isnt yours anymore...
Thats the difference in trading.....
In trading you can be wrong with your overall bet, but you can be right with your bet that you didnt lose any money.
Thats cool, then you just can go on to the next bet and try it again. and again, and again.

Thats, why IMO trading is much more easier than poker !!!:confused: :confused: :confused:
 
There is nothing wrong with guessing if you win. If you still need to justify to others that you won completely by analysis or skill, you are not ready to trade...
 
Quote from macattack:

Isn’t the decision to enter a trade nothing more than a guess?

Guess: To predict (a result or an event) without sufficient information.

because for everybody it’s the same……….it’s just a Guess !
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Mac

Trading is not guessing… it is anticipating

In my world those two words are mutually exclusive…

==========================================

Anticipating has and entire belief system, an entire philosophy, and an entire way of doing/ methodology – behind it


Guessing is something I do when playing Pictionary, or similar

Big ass difference

RN
 
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