No paradigm shift.
Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong
- Thread starter cityboy12
- Start date
In the journey to profitability, I many times changed my opinion from I can to I cannot and vice versa. So what Henry Ford said is only true at the moment you are speaking, the next minute, hour, day, ... it can be the opposite. People who invent things are proof of that.
Many oneliners sound good till you start to analyze profoundly what they say. And then you see often the incompleteness, or that the timebound aspect is missing.
people tend to tilt and distort actual observed probabilities to favor desired outcomes - that’s the beginning of belief.
imho, that is a dangerous territory in any endeavor including trading.
i think it’s better to begin on solid ground and build from there as opposed to wallowing in blind belief in trading success.
I think you may be missing the point here. As concerns trading ...if you THINK you will not ever become a successful trader then you probably won’t. However, if you THINK you can, and that you will become a successful trader then you will continue searching, persisting, and trying until you find out what works for you and discard what doesn’t work for you.
The fact that you have become a successful trader (assuming you are) bears witness to the fact that while you may have had some doubts along the way you kept at it until you found a way. So you either believe and thought you would eventually get there or you have simply expended a colosal waste of time, energy, and resources just for the heck of it.
Henry Ford himself had many failures along the way to a viable, workable invention, and profitability.
So you THINK AND BELIEVE that begining on solid ground increases the odds of success? If so, you just proved my point. You actually THOUGHT that. There are many ways..means...to become a successful trader. None matter if you do not think you can.
P.S. will you be changing your handle when summer gets here?
It is not religion.
You missed the point: There is no argument that some traders are very profitable. The discussions are what is the percentage of traders that are profitable. Numerous academic studies indicated the percentage is small, ranged from a few % to 10-15%.
The agreement is it is a small percentage. The argument is it is worth it for us mom and pop traders to even try? Those that are making a nice living say yes, those that are losing money say no.
I think a lot of post here are framing the argument incorrectly. Most people are thinking in binary terms, either you are a janitor or a full time BSD. Instead, for a non-professional it's worth thinking of trading/investing as a hobby (some people climb mountains, some trade stocks). In that case, success is continuous - i.e. you don't have to be a super-star to slightly improve on the buy and hold, for example.
i think aligning your expectations with evidence based picture of reality leads to better outcomes. that’s just my feeling.
as my handle suggests, this is my 80th iteration.
I am ALL for that. There is no question about the validity of measuring reality and adjusting for a better reality. It is just that there has to be a driving force or motivation for all we do. And I believe if I “think” I can then i will find a way to create my reality. That is all.i think aligning your expectations with evidence based picture of reality leads to better outcomes. that’s just my feeling.
as my handle suggests, this is my 80th iteration.