Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong

[cityboy12]

I did have Medallion figures a while back but that was 2 or 3 years ago and HFT has probably been hurting recently. You are of course correct about REIF. But you don't come to Elite Traders for truth. The people here live in a world of fantasy. Hard facts do not count for much in a trading forum. Testosterone and bullshit are the rule in places like Elite Trader. And ignorance and false hope.

Zeno,

This is a useful case study for me (and for the more discerning readers of this thread). I often find that I know I am right when I receive:

1 Ad hominem attacks
2 The responses actually prove my own point
3 The responses do not rely on facts but on mysticism and emotions.

If anything this forum can show you why the vast majority of traders fail. A lack of the scientific method, a fear of evidence/truth and decision-making based on 'feelings and visions'. I would also add a fear of hard-work and intellectual laziness.

 

[cityboy12]

Partially entertainment (as yourself) ...but in the majority as a learning experience of human nature and behavioural finance. I can also use these psychological insights as ammunition during future sales campaigns.

For example.

1 The earth is round and fairies do not exist.
Answer: I hate you you are an idiot. I have no evidence but my emotions tell me you are wrong therefore I hate you and attack you for affecting my feelings negatively.

2 The earth is flat, you are amazing/beautiful. You too can be a millionaire in 10 simple steps (despite not being hard-working competent/gifted or smart). Be positive and believe and you can achieve anything (there is no need to work just meditate/dream a lot).
Answer: I love you. You are my soul-brother and guru. Where do I sign?

My wallet tells me to do 2 and drive a Bentley.My conscience tells me to do 1 and reach an intelligent audience (maybe have 2 Bentleys?).

Also, a tiny fraction of people respond to the truth, and they are the only ones who matter, the rest is noise.

 

[zenostiffler]

Zeno,

This is a useful case study for me (and for the more discerning readers of this thread). I often find that I know I am right when I receive:

1 Ad hominem attacks
2 The responses actually prove my own point
3 The responses do not rely on facts but on mysticism and emotions.

If anything this forum can shows why the vast majority of traders fail. A lack of the scientific method, a fear of evidence/truth and decision-making based on 'feelings and visions'. I would also add a fear of hard-work and intellectual laziness.

Wise words Cityboy12. It is a great deal of pleasure to read what you have to say. I have been in markets for 30 years or more and seen so many "Market Wizards" come and go including Seykota.

I met the old boy for lunch in Cambridge, England over a decade ago. I much enjoyed his company and his research into equites at that time was excellent. But his glory days were when commodities were booming in the 70s and 80s. He had his time in the sun.

Crispin Odey was an exact contemporary at Christ church Oxford. His performance has been shitty but he is a good salesman. A good collector of fees.

My brother in law sold his hedge fund to LGT Bank In Liechtenstein. Its performance collapsed soon afterwards but again the name of the game was asset gathering.

Take Atradis in Singapore - again people I know. Once the biggest fund there. The managers made hundreds of millions in fees and then closed down 60% when their one trick pony ran out of steam.

People have their time in the sun and then they fade.

Most of the people on this forum wont even have their time in the sun.

 

[cityboy12]

On a spiritual note. I think that people do, in fact, get their time in the sun again ..but usually in a different way. It is really a question of letting go of the past and not trying to replicate it. Like a window that has closed There are always booms happening around the world...real estate bubbles, Asia is booming, technology, regulatory booms, AI, military technology ....

The universe is infinitely variable.

I am tempted to take advantage of the gullible but each time I think about it my conscience is preventing me from doing it. You could call it the 'stupidity boom' This boom is one where the intelligent have the trading 'edge' and, based on my research, it doesn't seem too difficult.

 

[zenostiffler]

I am tempted to take advantage of the gullible

Yes it is tempting but these days I could not do it. I was revisiting the highly profitable ground rent game recently. Some 30 years ago I spent time with a delightful Hassidic Jew in North London and had great fun helping him with his business. I happen to love Jewish culture and it was a fascinating experience. I could make good money out of it and with my back ground as a lawyer I have the ideal qualifications. But these days I refuse to prey on the weak and the helpless. And that is what the ground rent gangsters do. I seemed to have developed a dumb ethical self governor. You are right to avoid sleaze.

 

[cityboy12]

Yes it is tempting but these days I could not do it. I was revisiting the highly profitable ground rent game recently. Some 30 years ago I spent time with a delightful Hassidic Jew in North London and had great fun helping him with his business. I happen to love Jewish culture and it was a fascinating experience. I could make good money out of it and with my back ground as a lawyer I have the ideal qualifications. But these days I refuse to prey on the weak and the helpless. And that is what the ground rent gangsters do. I seemed to have developed a dumb ethical self governor. You are right to avoid sleaze.

I agree, and thank you for your input regarding your experiences of hedge funds. It is really my conscience holding me back. Other people, however, do clearly not have such qualms. I still think there are more than enough ethical opportunities to take advantage of, however.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Prove me wrong guys...am I missing something?

 

[El OchoCinco]

Elochocinco,

I am not using emotive words like 'demand' and 'prove.' I am being totally dispassionate and logical.

If I am going to hire an employee then I will ask for references, qualifications and a CV. If a bank manager gives me a loan then they ask for evidence of my creditworthiness.

Why is it so emotionally difficult for you to accept that if someone manages money they should have no issue with 'showing the numbers'? It is called performance measurement.

Attacking the person who asks or proposes this should be the case means that there are emotional reasons why you feel this shouldn't be the case rather than logical. Perhaps you are afraid? Perhaps you want to protect your 'world-view' from evaporating once the truth reveals itself? Nobody should be afraid of the truth. It maybe painful at first but will liberate you.

Why do you think anyone here is going to fall over backwards to try and get you as a client and must show their resume.

Money managers, at least good ones, are not here to whore for anonymous clients, not to mention regulatory restrictions on doing so. This is not a job site.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Elochocinco,

I am not using emotive words like 'demand' and 'prove.' I am being totally dispassionate and logical.

If I am going to hire an employee then I will ask for references, qualifications and a CV. If a bank manager gives me a loan then they ask for evidence of my creditworthiness.

Why is it so emotionally difficult for you to accept that if someone manages money they should have no issue with 'showing the numbers'? It is called performance measurement.

Attacking the person who asks or proposes this should be the case means that there are emotional reasons why you feel this shouldn't be the case rather than logical. Perhaps you are afraid? Perhaps you want to protect your 'world-view' from evaporating once the truth reveals itself? Nobody should be afraid of the truth. It maybe painful at first but will liberate you.

The name of the thread is PROVE ME WRONG.

 

[destriero]

I agree, and thank you for your input regarding your experiences of hedge funds. It is really my conscience holding me back. Other people, however, do clearly not have such qualms. I still think there are more than enough ethical opportunities to take advantage of, however.

Sure, you can market your timing model that went to 90% cash the moment before the SPX rallied 50% in less than three years!