Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong

cityboy12 said:
My money would be on Zenostiffler :) The truth has a funny way of setting you free. Also, it helps you make decisions better.

On another point, I don't expect to make many friends with the truth. But I find that the minority of people who gravitate towards it and who are not afraid of it...are worth knowing.
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My like means that I agree with your statement about the truth be liked by few and in the same time to be only one way, even if funny, to setting you free, but I disagree with your vision of trading.
 
cityboy12 said:
Thanks for the acknowledgement.

I agree about the 'names'.

1. Ed Sekoyta is washed up now, I believe, and teaches to trade
2. Cohen (watch the video above) was never good as a trader in the first place but traded off of insider information. He never went to jail though (but his employees did).

I did some research about the 'names' in the past and found little substance.

I forgot about my research regarding the hedge fund 'churn' and survivorship bias. Most hedge funds fail and get rolled into other funds... The industry as a whole is in structural decline....

Anyway, I am open to any questions.
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I recently had an unpleasant experience with Ed Sekota. When I found his trading tribe website, (thanks to Elite trader) I said, how nice. So many people here in the Bahamas are asking me how to trade. Firstly we thought about a trading school - but have not met partners willing to do it and we have no time to handle it all. Then sent them here on EliteTrader. But the fake sellers are keep getting auditory in the Bahamas, as elsewhere. So I was very enthusiastic to make a filial of his tribe in the Bahamas, all of that for free, no-profit. And as, an answer, after months, I received an awful note of refusal. If he is scared to go against UBS and Credit Suisse he could not be a profitable trader ever.
 
zenostiffler said:
From about 2003 I wasted a great deal of time backtesting trading strategies
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Maybe, just maybe, you did not know what you where doing? Most people who went into systematic trading around that time all have done well for themselves.

As a professional (OPM) trader/PM I certainly feel like it's a stressful albeit a well-paying job. The have no idea how it is to be a retail trader and would imagine it sucks a lot of the time. Though, from my across-the-street perspective there are some advantages vs many other professions including my own.
 
They said:
The facts are there, most people are going to die close to broke ...
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They don't sound broke to me? From your MIT source:

However, the study — one of the first to examine Americans’ end-of-life finances — also reveals a diversity of outcomes among senior citizens. Between 1993 and 2008, it found, unmarried older individuals had median wealth of about $165,000 roughly a year before they died — a figure that includes current and future Social Security income, job-related pension benefits, home equity and financial assets. In the same period, the median wealth for continuously married senior citizens, roughly a year before they died, was more than $600,000.
 
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cityboy12 said:
Elochocinco, believe me I have no sense of entitlement and I forgive you for the expletive.You picked me up wrong.

Rather than being another person on the 'losing side of a trade', I chose simply to work within the industry. I methodically studied the industry from the inside out for a number of years both inside companies (where I obtained employment) and outside them. I studied and researched the business models of countless companies and individuals and conducted countless hours of secondary research in order to find 'an edge' or pfofit.

My preliminary conclusions are what I am sharing based on personal evidence, data gathered and not on smoke and mirrors or hearsay. In fact, I applied a dispassionate mindset to my research, much as a trader is supposed to (I am told). In other words, on a simple level.

1. A dispassionate analysis without any emotional bias
2. An understanding of the relationship between risk and reward
3. 'Choosing your trades'
4. Only committing in full when you have a verifiable 'edge'.

I am open-minded and would love some objective evidence (not hearsay, fake P&Ls or 'I know a guy who.') to complement my analysis. As an example, there are circa 97k members here. Assuming a 1% success rate, that would be some 970 consistently profitable traders. Of these, a fraction would make a reasonable income for the time and risk/reward...say a couple of hundred. This forum is a fantastic opportunity to post audited P&Ls and propose mentoring others.

However, in essence, so far my analysis points to the conclusion that different strategies such as obtaining a good marketable skill (e.g. CPA, doctor..) and saving and compounding has a lower risk to reward ratio. In other words, 'another trade.'
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Again,, why in the world should anyone feel any need to prove anything to you and share audited P&Ls.

You are exactly like all the other lazy traders that come in here and demand we prove you can make money trading.

Let me save you some time and effort, after years of trading and interacting with successful and losing traders your behavior thus far falls right in line with what losing traders do and say. So stop now before losing anymore money and find another hobby.
 
zenostiffler said:
Because I like to take the piss and find it amusing. Schadenfreude is always fun if a little cruel. Also I like being cynical rude and sarcastic.
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You also like selling a book using systems and backtesting even though you said system and backtesting do not work. In other words your mouth and ass are competing for the amount of shit that pours out of it.

You are a salesman now "'A Practical Guide to ETF Trading Systems' is about simple, rule-based trading systems of a trend following nature."
 
cityboy12 said:
Bear with me on this one... Ultimately, as traders we are looking for risk/reward, managing our resources (including finite time) and risk... and making a profit.

I have working both as a stockbroker, portfolio manager, in sales and also within the brokerage industry on behalf of platform on a journey of discovery which took a number of years. I found

1. Fraudulent educators (behaving much like carnival barkers or snake oil salesmen).
2. Arcades/prop shops (those that are still around) essentially pyramiding off of their traders (desk fees, commissions) as their business model.
3. Market makers (ahem..bucket-shops) whose business model is incentivized by you losing money.
4. Transfer of risk onto 'staff' members (self-employment is not employment unless you own equity in the company) and a promise of earnings does not pay the bills and is a risk-less promise to the person making it.
5. Big well-resourced HFT funds with huge advantages- essentially, cartels or monopolies within their spaces.
6. Aggressives sales practices - often defrauding the elderly, naive and weak.
7 Stock price manipulators (pink sheets, AIM anyone?)
8 Gambling addiction - destroying lives, relationships and net worths - some people need help.
9 Structural changes in the industry - including constant regulatory change
10 Automation - roboadvice and AI reducing the need for human trading (it is not 2009 but 2019 , traders are now programmers).
11 Less and less alpha- witness the decline in the HF industry.
12 Psychopathic managers - finance seems to attract them.
13 Indebted students being taken advantage of by employers

I could go on...but the biggest statistic is the very very low chance of success (depending on which study you read, less than a fraction of 1% and, even there, you will probably make less money than a teacher or policeman). Don't forget that ROI means that you invest resources (including the precious commodity of your time) with an anticipation of reward. Investing in trade school certifications will give you a higher ROI over time at lower risk (particularly if you save early and use point 3 below).

I applied analytical tools like the Carver Matrix or Game Theory then I researched/ looked at options like...

1. Own the house - become a market maker or retail broker. But the regulations (such as capital adequacy) have 'gamed out' the new entrants and protected the cartel. Increasing changes away from commission to fee models and transparency.
2. Use other people's money (heads we win, tails you lose). People forget that hedge fund managers don't pay out when performance is negative, they just reap the rewards when/if it is. Regulations also a barrier. However, usually you are undercapitalized and can't compete. A start-up hedge fund managing millions can make you less than a good tradesman. Less and less alpha.
3. Choose another investment game - the power of compounding ? (Remember Buffet's bet anyone?) Wealth management (using low cost ETFs etc)
4. Get a skill and charge a fee- I now have a fee-based business and my income grows steadily. Ultimately, unlimited upside and limited downside.
5. Get evil - create a training school for prospective traders, set up an offshore FX shop, fleece your 'employees',etc
6 etc

I went with 3 & 4 with 2 kicking in in a year or two (specialising in very niche areas of the markets) once I have solid cashflow elsewhere.

I remember the lyrics of a song ...'Suppose they gave a war and no-one came..'.? Isn't trading about analyzing the game itself?

Prove me wrong guys...am I missing something?
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One of the great mysteries in life is what motivates people to post contrarian philosophies on Boards/Sites that are meant to serve those with opposite viewpoints?

You are on a site called "Elite Traders", presenting your opinion that trading is a bad career choice.

The short answer is yes, if you never reach the true level of being an elite trader.

This applies to ALL maverick type of occupations where the top enjoy great monetary rewards while the majority who try never reach any where close. Examples are:

1) Starting your own business
2) Being an actor
3) Being in a music band
4) Being an artist
5) Playing sports
6) Being a news anchor/reporter
7) Being a writer

The odds of achieving great success in any of those fields are very low compared to the much higher risk of failure. So the answer to all those above professions would be classified as a "bad trade" based on risk compared to standard career occupations.

People who take up maverick type of occupations should know going into them that the failure rate is high and have a timeline to either achieve their goals or move on to something else.

There will ALWAYS be the standard 9-5 types of jobs for those who are risk averse and don't wish to enter a field where the failure rate is high, or for those who experimented with the maverick fields and decided it wasn't for them.

Obviously for those who achieve success in maverick fields, it's not a "bad trade" for them.

Lastly, how do you explain the unqualified success of Renaissance Medallion fund, which typically gets double digit returns and hasn't seen a negative return in decades? They sure seem to have little difficulty finding alpha for those who think successful trading is just luck or a temporary edge that can't be maintained.
 
destriero said:
It appears that your book is not a best seller, Stiffler.

https://www.amazon.com/product-revi...w_tkin_p1_i0_see_all?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1

Dude goes to 90% cash in Sep 2015 at SPX 1950:

https://www.investorschronicle.co.u...uto-pilot-3EyihEk7UiBOKwMIVnoXTL/article.html

You're a real dandy. WTF is with Brits and their proclivity for losing money? Sleep in those clothes?

Slow down with the quant, Bro. This material is incredibly complex:

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No it was a complete waste of time. Anyone who bought it deserves a refund. Ha ha ha excellent stuff. Let the insults flow from all you Elite Traders
 
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