Is trading Gambling or not .."What say You" Vote here.
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
aww...its like reading a book...go ahead. it mostly me and many short posts...
Though trading and gambling have things in common, like uncertainty of outcome and risk of loss, they have one important difference.... *probability* of outcome.
In gambling, the odds are against the player and are fixed. There is nothing the player can do to put the odds in his favor (except card counting in black jack... which the house disallows once discovered). So, when one gambles, the best he can hope for is to beat the odds.
In trading, however, the probability of outcome can be slanted in the favor of the trader by his behavior.
In gambling, the odds are against the player and are fixed. There is nothing the player can do to put the odds in his favor (except card counting in black jack... which the house disallows once discovered). So, when one gambles, the best he can hope for is to beat the odds.
In trading, however, the probability of outcome can be slanted in the favor of the trader by his behavior.
simple, trading can be gambling. It has happened to us all at times. We get off on some longer term trendline or average which has very little to do with todays action and we get stupid, hold to long and this is gambling. Plain and simple. But if we keep our heads on straight and keep our plan in front of us all the times, stay disciplined and trade only the plan, this is not gambling. On a long series of trades, my trading has very little in common with gambling. In the short run, it may at times look like what it is not. JMO.
Keith
Keith
what percent of screen based "retail" swing traders or end of day "retail" ( futures / equity ) traders are winners
compared to screen based intraday scalpers / traders ( of futures / equities ) "RETAIL"
I would think floor traders and prop equity / futures traders
who have razor thin commissions have a better winning percentage
than the typical retail daytrader ?
compared to screen based intraday scalpers / traders ( of futures / equities ) "RETAIL"
I would think floor traders and prop equity / futures traders
who have razor thin commissions have a better winning percentage
than the typical retail daytrader ?
I always wondered why there was not a website devoted to gambling, options trading, whoring, drugging and all kinds of other prurient macho interests. Smart assed journalism. A scoreboard, ticker, Belmont feeder, etc. all in one place. Maxim magazine meets Wall St. Journal meets Screw Magazine meets otb feeders. Think of all the pop up ad money and override schemes that could be devised!
it's easy to confuse short term outcomes with longer term ones. even a casino is not sure if the next come out crap-roll is going to net the house a profit or a loss. they don't care. they have a positive mathematical expectancy built into their games.
a person scalping in the pit is not sure if his next buy or sell will be a winner or a loser. all he knows is that he's always offering to buy at the lower bid, sell at the higher offer all day long. there are other aspects to successful scalping, but assuming you can buy the bids, sell the offers and not let your emotions torpedo the technique (such as letting losses run away)--you too would have a positive mathematical expectancy.
as for system traders, they'll never know what their edge is as exactly as a slot machine programmer knows exactly when a payoff will hit and what fraction of the total intake it will be. (always less than the intake of course). but in an inexact way, a programmer can uncover biases he feels are robust and likely to persist into the future. there are prudent testing techniques and foolhardy ones. people at the top of their game--budgeted correctly at the onset, following their signals exactly without giving into to whims, and having tested correctly, are making prudent business decisions. that is not gambling in the strict sense most people use the phrase.
a person scalping in the pit is not sure if his next buy or sell will be a winner or a loser. all he knows is that he's always offering to buy at the lower bid, sell at the higher offer all day long. there are other aspects to successful scalping, but assuming you can buy the bids, sell the offers and not let your emotions torpedo the technique (such as letting losses run away)--you too would have a positive mathematical expectancy.
as for system traders, they'll never know what their edge is as exactly as a slot machine programmer knows exactly when a payoff will hit and what fraction of the total intake it will be. (always less than the intake of course). but in an inexact way, a programmer can uncover biases he feels are robust and likely to persist into the future. there are prudent testing techniques and foolhardy ones. people at the top of their game--budgeted correctly at the onset, following their signals exactly without giving into to whims, and having tested correctly, are making prudent business decisions. that is not gambling in the strict sense most people use the phrase.
Wasn't there a similar thread months ago?
LaBron James makes a bizzillion dollars playing a game. The odds of him getting to the level he is at was less than winning the lottery.
LaBron James makes a bizzillion dollars playing a game. The odds of him getting to the level he is at was less than winning the lottery.