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Is Trading Gambling or not

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I have dialed down the variable trade ticket to take effect after 17:00 or 17:15 est today (according to when Oanda posts the interest to the accounts). The variable trade ticket will be halved (see capsule 4 )

I am looking at adjusting the trade increments now, but have not decided. Pivot Points are currently being used on the previous days bar. There is not a new pivot point drawn if closer than 10 pips. I am considering to change that "10 pip rule" to a "20 pip rule". Any comments? if not this new rule wil be added this afternoon.

With all the help I am receiving I am determined to remove the "gamble" from this. I had a very confusing talk with Sympatico last night in Oanda. He truly is the master of this system, but we are on our own to discover how and when to accelerate increments and to implore multiple pairs without diluting the performance. If any of you plain speakers can help explain...chime in by all means...(Its Funny I really do not understand the multiple pair thing, I know it is to grab volatility when it happens, but the overall possible drawdown can increase unless you understand how the correlation of all those pairs react with your net exposure)

I am trying to achieve less labor and have procrastinated the use of more pairs. I am told that 5k is not enough initial capital to cover the labor costs....We shall see if the trade increments can be modified...Weekly Pivots really space it out, but I think the loss of profit on the wider flow and the cost of carry need to be examined.

Michael B.
 
jmho

One of the reasons for looking at the long timeframes could be to 'discover' optimum resistance and support of a pair.
After one has all the S/R for those '15' pairs then one may work with them like a tandem.
When they go from R to S it is sell time and when they travel from S to R it is buy time.
Surely that they may and will retrace. This is when you accumulate unrealised losses. This could also be the reason why while certain pairs are accumulating unrealised losses they are also accumulating interest(!). Those unrealised losses will be covered once the main trend assumes back control.
From what I see, this needs building up time, probably a year to come to the optimum point where all the ups and downs are 'defined' in your 'grid'.
But why only 15 pairs? Probably the other 'not selected' pairs have too high spread? But it also seems that the 'system' must be active all the time. Either accumulating unrealised losses or taking profits.
The labor part would be intensive. Seems also that it is not 'easily' put into a program since there will be discretionary closing trades that one preceives as not contributing to the pool or one may need more margin.
If this is the way it is supposed to work then technical analysis and pivots are uneccessary unless one wants to 'force' certain occasions to take more profit due to specific behaviour at certain moments in time meaning manual help to enhance the system.
Hummm... not a bad idea. Definitely worth spending some time 'thinking' out a solution.
Since I am a dumb trader this will certainly be the solution for solving all the emotional and analysis handicap.

__________________
I am a dumb trader. Good, you will inherit pips.
 
Cooldude...if you are dumb, then I am an absolute, embecilic idiot-savant. What you are posting here, is absolutly true. You captured the essence of the methodology in a short, concise post.

Michael B.

P.S. For those of you trading this methodology...You are retail Market Makers now...see you in the pits :)!!!!


Quote from cooldude:

jmho

One of the reasons for looking at the long timeframes could be to 'discover' optimum resistance and support of a pair.
After one has all the S/R for those '15' pairs then one may work with them like a tandem.
When they go from R to S it is sell time and when they travel from S to R it is buy time.
Surely that they may and will retrace. This is when you accumulate unrealised losses. This could also be the reason why while certain pairs are accumulating unrealised losses they are also accumulating interest(!). Those unrealised losses will be covered once the main trend assumes back control.
From what I see, this needs building up time, probably a year to come to the optimum point where all the ups and downs are 'defined' in your 'grid'.
But why only 15 pairs? Probably the other 'not selected' pairs have too high spread? But it also seems that the 'system' must be active all the time. Either accumulating unrealised losses or taking profits.
The labor part would be intensive. Seems also that it is not 'easily' put into a program since there will be discretionary closing trades that one preceives as not contributing to the pool or one may need more margin.
If this is the way it is supposed to work then technical analysis and pivots are uneccessary unless one wants to 'force' certain occasions to take more profit due to specific behaviour at certain moments in time meaning manual help to enhance the system.
Hummm... not a bad idea. Definitely worth spending some time 'thinking' out a solution.
Since I am a dumb trader this will certainly be the solution for solving all the emotional and analysis handicap.

__________________
I am a dumb trader. Good, you will inherit pips.
More...
 
Quote from jerry11901:

Trading with out stops is gambling …
More...

We teach our traders to not use actual "hard" stops since they are subjected to being stopped out in "trade through" situations. We encourage the discipline to use "mental stops" on every trade, and to "get out" if you can "get back in" at a better' price.

For example: If you bought xyz at $51.00 and put a 50 cent stop loss in the stock, and the stock had a negotiated trade at $50.00 for 100,000 shares, then you would be stopped out at $50.00, thus losing a whole dollar. Our traders would be taking advantage of trading on the same side as the Specialist who had to be one of the buyes on that $50.00 print, and (all things being equal) the stock reverses back to near it's previous price level.

FWIW.

Don
 
Don

I can agree. There is a reaction to every action. In the sliding scale of price there should be a reason for every decision a trader makes.

Don, excuse me for chiming in. I am not speaking for you. Your experience is far greater than mine, and u da man!

Michael B.


Quote from Don Bright:

We teach our traders to not use actual "hard" stops since they are subjected to being stopped out in "trade through" situations. We encourage the discipline to use "mental stops" on every trade, and to "get out" if you can "get back in" at a better' price.

For example: If you bought xyz at $51.00 and put a 50 cent stop loss in the stock, and the stock had a negotiated trade at $50.00 for 100,000 shares, then you would be stopped out at $50.00, thus losing a whole dollar. Our traders would be taking advantage of trading on the same side as the Specialist who had to be one of the buyes on that $50.00 print, and (all things being equal) the stock reverses back to near it's previous price level.

FWIW.

Don
More...
 
Folks,

There are a lot of cliches' If you post them they sound good.

But I want to say this!

THEY ARE ALL BULLCRAP (said in one of the "Phil Hendrie" voices)
 
Electric

I am really a dumb trader and that's why I need a 'foolproof' system!!!

One fantastic 'side effect' from your system is that you are free from Stop Losses!!!
Look at EURUSD vs USDCHF. If SL hunters 'dip' USDCHF they will also 'raise' your EURUSD and there you are ambushing their mischief for your benefit so your are hedged against their gullible actions if there are any!
Besides that you can set your TP at almost any value between the S/R range depending on your need to have ready cash available.
If your account is 'large', the interest alone can pay most of your bills!
The more I 'think' of it the more I am sure that your system will provide:
1-Emotional free trading,
2-'Guaranteed' profits (on the long term if you are undercapitalized and almost fast return if you have deep pockets).

Let's see if I have 'what it takes' to assemble all that theory into real trading! :D

Must not forget that backtesting is not needed.
The yearly/monthly/daily graphs are 'proof' that this idea works.

There is a holy grail after all. It costs but it is well worth its costs!
But as they say, there is no free lunch and you have to DEDICATE your time and patience to it like it was your beloved mistress or your new shinning Corvette. :)

Electric, I must thank you for putting up this great thread.

May you prosper from such fantastic ideas and to be so generous in sharing them.

__________________
I am a dumb trader. Good, you will inherit pips.
 
See you in the Journal you Dumbshit...lol (please take this the correct way :))

Michael B.

P.S. By the way System #1 is Sympatico's system, I just tweaked it. System #2 was mine before I ever met Sympatico, but I am sure other people have traded the combo I am trading in System #2.

Now, Cooldude, I gotta ask...Is trading gambling or not? Tell me, let me hear it!!!!

Michael B.

P.S. Interestingly, Nitro has disappeared. (has he ever once conceded that a methodology could be valid...just once!)


Quote from cooldude:

Electric

I am really a dumb trader and that's why I need a 'foolproof' system!!!

One fantastic 'side effect' from your system is that you are free from Stop Losses!!!
Look at EURUSD vs USDCHF. If SL hunters 'dip' USDCHF they will also 'raise' your EURUSD and there you are ambushing their mischief for your benefit so your are hedged against their gullible actions if there are any!
Besides that you can set your TP at almost any value between the S/R range depending on your need to have ready cash available.
If your account is 'large', the interest alone can pay most of your bills!
The more I 'think' of it the more I am sure that your system will provide:
1-Emotional free trading,
2-'Guaranteed' profits (on the long term if you are undercapitalized and almost fast return if you have deep pockets).

Let's see if I have 'what it takes' to assemble all that theory into real trading! :D

Must not forget that backtesting is not needed.
The yearly/monthly/daily graphs are 'proof' that this idea works.

There is a holy grail after all. It costs but it is well worth its costs!
But as they say, there is no free lunch and you have to DEDICATE your time and patience to it like it was your beloved mistress or your new shinning Corvette. :)

Electric, I must thank you for putting up this great thread.

May you prosper from such fantastic ideas and to be so generous in sharing them.

__________________
I am a dumb trader. Good, you will inherit pips.
More...
 
If you say it is gambling, sorry, but you belong to the poor dumb stumbling mass of losers who don't make a profit and live on a sh*t diet of hope.

Its a way to make and amass money; its a business for the few winners.
 
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