Is trading Gambling or not .."What say You" Vote here.
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
Good point... I guess one could have an edge, knowing they don't have one!
I have been studying system#1 for several months and started forward testing with real dollars two weeks ago (small stake of 5k)...This cannot be backtested...
The carry trades (system#2) since last July (I was also trading bollinger bands as another system and took a huge hit). I have dropped the BB and continued with the carry trades.
If you look at the spreadsheet I almost got all my money back..its been a long journey
I have big plans for this, I will catch Wifey and her options trading profits soon...I plan on scaling in some more money to increase the cash in the sub account and to system #1 and #2 soon.
Its true when gambling you lose a big chunk and to get it back is usually a long journey. But trading does not need to be this way. TRADING IS NOT GAMBLING.
There are about 300 questions on two other boards by myself and more experienced traders over the past months. This is also called grid trading by another...pool cleaning by another and volatility grabbing by me...
I cannot link you to them here for obvious reasons...
Michael B.
The carry trades (system#2) since last July (I was also trading bollinger bands as another system and took a huge hit). I have dropped the BB and continued with the carry trades.
If you look at the spreadsheet I almost got all my money back..its been a long journey
I have big plans for this, I will catch Wifey and her options trading profits soon...I plan on scaling in some more money to increase the cash in the sub account and to system #1 and #2 soon. Its true when gambling you lose a big chunk and to get it back is usually a long journey. But trading does not need to be this way. TRADING IS NOT GAMBLING.
There are about 300 questions on two other boards by myself and more experienced traders over the past months. This is also called grid trading by another...pool cleaning by another and volatility grabbing by me...
I cannot link you to them here for obvious reasons...
Michael B.
good point.
BUT...
I do not trade ALL of the 5k in these three accounts. Also, I have a policy of removing the original stake. see the spreadsheet for debits and credits...that is why it is there....
ok here comes the gambling cries....
I am telling you, this is not gambling, and the time it takes for the sky to fall, I will be covered...Each day that passes it is less and less... less....and and less and and less...
Also with that 20Y example how can you calculate all the twists in the road? System #1, I think would do rather nicely...
BUT...
I do not trade ALL of the 5k in these three accounts. Also, I have a policy of removing the original stake. see the spreadsheet for debits and credits...that is why it is there....
ok here comes the gambling cries....
I am telling you, this is not gambling, and the time it takes for the sky to fall, I will be covered...Each day that passes it is less and less... less....and and less and and less...
Also with that 20Y example how can you calculate all the twists in the road? System #1, I think would do rather nicely...
ok,
lets examine this.
Lets cut trade size down to 0.30%. The resulting drop or rise is accompanied by retraces....how many?
Now tell me, it depends....
I use 3.30 percent JUST NOW....I have said throughout the thread that retraces and chop exceed the pips count from the 10Y highest high and the 10Y lowest Low...(EUR has not traded for 10Y). But the point is that you must size the trade correctly, and balance the sub account correctly......
When I add 4k to the sub account tell me it depends....(sub account pays 1.9% interest)
What if I add two more pairs that would be the equal reaction to the falling sky?...Falling sky's can be a good thing...
It is impossible to lay all of this out here....
Michael B.
lets examine this.
Lets cut trade size down to 0.30%. The resulting drop or rise is accompanied by retraces....how many?
Now tell me, it depends....
I use 3.30 percent JUST NOW....I have said throughout the thread that retraces and chop exceed the pips count from the 10Y highest high and the 10Y lowest Low...(EUR has not traded for 10Y). But the point is that you must size the trade correctly, and balance the sub account correctly......
When I add 4k to the sub account tell me it depends....(sub account pays 1.9% interest)
What if I add two more pairs that would be the equal reaction to the falling sky?...Falling sky's can be a good thing...
It is impossible to lay all of this out here....
Michael B.
And what do you think would happen to the other two pair...in the JPY collapse...just curious? There is daily balancing available in the rules for system#2
For example I survived the last USD weakening from July...(I was experimenting with other pairs)
Michael B.
For example I survived the last USD weakening from July...(I was experimenting with other pairs)
Michael B.
Not sure. This whole strategy is similar to using margin to buy yield bonds of REITS. It can make money, BUT is can collapse very quickly. High reward means high risk. There is no free lunch. FX market is the most liquid in the world, CTA's would be making a bundle off of these if it were as risk free as you suggest. If your pairs get even 5% out of whack at 50:1 margin thats 250%!!!!. Interest can only make up for so much of a drawdown. Think about the high yield bond, REIT margin example.
There should be a choice in the poll as to whether or not ES needs to see a psychiatrist. That would probably get more people voting!!!