Is trading easy?

[Handle123]

Thanks for the info. I really do appreciate it. Do you wonder how you can increase the win rate? Of course there was a post a few pages back about how this can be troublesome, but do you not think that you are missing something if you get it wrong half the time?

Instead of concentrating on increasing win rate, why not find ways to decrease losing percentages? Study what happened before signal on winning trades, to the left of signal on charts.

Study patterns at extremes then don't trade against them.

My first twenty years were not easy to trade, am a perfectionist, I got into trading as ultimate challenge, my businesses did well enough I retired at 43. All my life been workaholic, having Asperger's helped me see patterns of what's missing or wrong.

Instead of working on high percentage very long term commodity system of selling highs and buying lows, I went to making a horrible low winning percentage system, then learned hedging to make profits when I lost, so I have positive expectancy when trade is placed it will be losing trade on underlying but make overall profits. System seeks percentage nine year extremes, so when high/low entry is found, stays in for 75% of 9 year range and on pullbacks more entries done. Started it in 1991 and improved through the years.

Recently turned off scalping automated systems, all did 5% or less losing %, moved funds to areas that produce larger profits. Have one day trading system automated, runs 24 hours and automating last one, losses 4% and under. Protective stop is $1250, profits less.

Is trading easier after 44 years, absolutely, I understand what happens most of the time. I expect to be profitable everyday, losing days happen cause of averaging down but overall produces more overall.

Most people don't think outside the box, use too many indicators, don't study charting patterns.
One of better patterns is Reverse divergence, Google it.
Wedges with trend, triple bottoms with trend, Head and shoulders with or against trend. Anticipate triangles and get in early, risk less and those do trend line breakout gets your trade to break even stops. Whatever normal signals are, learn to get in early.

Getting older, rather go for larger profit systems, less trades. Scalping/day trading younger person way of life, age catches up.

 

[getthatintoya]

Yes, exactly right. I used to trade the micro futures and have since switched to a leveraged ETF like SQQQ for the NQ proxy. This way, with 25 or 50 shares, I am essentially trading about 1/5 or lower the leverage of the NQ. So a 10 point move, which we know is nothing, would be $20 with MNQ, but now can be less than $5 with the ETF. It also makes scaling a bit easier and holding onto bigger profits because you aren't so quick to exit and lock in the small profit for fear of losing it.

Ok great now second and lastly to improve on that fear is move away from scalping/day trading (for the moment anyway) Look at swing or eod trading because your scalping is only hindering your fear in that you don't take the trade cause another one will be along soon and so on the process repeats.

 

[Jzwu2017]

In principle trading in any time frame is the same due to the fractal nature of the market. Day trading is more challenging technically, however.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

The big difference between D, E, F and K, L, N is not the triple bottoms (they look the same), but the bigger picture. Look to the left of the triple bottoms on the 2 charts. Do you think they are the same pattern?

I guess it takes thousands of screen hours to discern the difference in the big picture. TA by itself is useless if without context or the big picture view.

Yep he missed the full lesson and you just spoonfed it to him and he still didn't get it.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Well, it of course all looks easy in hindsight, but there is nothing wrong with having your setups prepared after all. The thing though is that according to the link, the entry here would be after the break of the range. So if I'm reading it right, it would be at G, once it breaks above the previous highs. The stop would have to be around H, which is where the lows are, and the profit target is therefore at J.

Clearly this trade would work based on these parameters, but its only 1:1 trade really, so you need a very healthy win rate to make this work, and I highly doubt this would be the case more than 70% of the time. And lets also not forget that the up trend is broken if you are to consider that a trend line drawn from the open, which would be very steep, is broken.

View attachment 288732

Something similar happened today. When we get to K, its certainly not a clear up trend anymore, but neither was the above example at D,E,F. Here we have a nice pullback to a prominent swing low at K. Then L is a solid double bottom. At M we even have a higher high, and therefore when it gets to N, it looks like a last chance to enter, your so-called forced to take a trade! (still have no idea what you mean by forced...LOL) But as you can see, this set-up, if we zoom in on it, looks very similar to the others we have been talking about.

View attachment 288734

Clearly this trade didn't work out, and I'm not even suggesting its an ideal setup, but there sure would be many reasons to try a long to be honest.

Its of course only one example and nothing to draw a conclusion on. In one example the trade works, and in another it doesn't. If your reward is 3x or 4x your risk, then you're golden even if your win rate is only 50%. But before I think we can conclude how easy this trading game is, we have to look at a trader's entire list of trades for a week or month. You will easily hit a string of losses that will demoralize you.

Sure, the accomplished trader can probably just keep on trading through this drawdown, and it certainly is the right thing to do with a setup that you know works, but in order to call this game easy and be printing money, you probably need multiple strategies, and strategies for when a trade fails and how this will help set up the next trade for you. A losing trade after all can be an indication that the market is doing something different than you thought, and hence warrant completely switching your bias and techniques.

See even though I gave you something that worked three days in a row you still kept saying stupid things.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Well, it of course all looks easy in hindsight, but there is nothing wrong with having your setups prepared after all. The thing though is that according to the link, the entry here would be after the break of the range. So if I'm reading it right, it would be at G, once it breaks above the previous highs. The stop would have to be around H, which is where the lows are, and the profit target is therefore at J.

Clearly this trade would work based on these parameters, but its only 1:1 trade really, so you need a very healthy win rate to make this work, and I highly doubt this would be the case more than 70% of the time. And lets also not forget that the up trend is broken if you are to consider that a trend line drawn from the open, which would be very steep, is broken.

View attachment 288732

Something similar happened today. When we get to K, its certainly not a clear up trend anymore, but neither was the above example at D,E,F. Here we have a nice pullback to a prominent swing low at K. Then L is a solid double bottom. At M we even have a higher high, and therefore when it gets to N, it looks like a last chance to enter, your so-called forced to take a trade! (still have no idea what you mean by forced...LOL) But as you can see, this set-up, if we zoom in on it, looks very similar to the others we have been talking about.

View attachment 288734

Clearly this trade didn't work out, and I'm not even suggesting its an ideal setup, but there sure would be many reasons to try a long to be honest.

Its of course only one example and nothing to draw a conclusion on. In one example the trade works, and in another it doesn't. If your reward is 3x or 4x your risk, then you're golden even if your win rate is only 50%. But before I think we can conclude how easy this trading game is, we have to look at a trader's entire list of trades for a week or month. You will easily hit a string of losses that will demoralize you.

Sure, the accomplished trader can probably just keep on trading through this drawdown, and it certainly is the right thing to do with a setup that you know works, but in order to call this game easy and be printing money, you probably need multiple strategies, and strategies for when a trade fails and how this will help set up the next trade for you. A losing trade after all can be an indication that the market is doing something different than you thought, and hence warrant completely switching your bias and techniques.

My god Noah, I am literally angry that you spent time writing this bullshit rather than thinking "would noob actually take the most retarded trade I could come up with"

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Here is the psychology of Noah, I can tell you because I can relate. And reading his responses just makes me realize how much stupider than me he really is.

He has had a life full of really hard losses, but he is a smart guy. He thinks he can reason his way into a 100% win rate. He thinks "if I had just known this earlier, I would have done something different". You cannot change the past, but if you let it, it will affect THE REST OF YOUR LIFE YOU CUNT FUCK.

The reason I love the market is because it forces me to acknowledge I am putting faith in a bunch of people to keep doing what I think they are doing. It forces me to acknowledge I am nothing, I am not smart, I am completely at the whim of the universe. I am nothing.

That is powerful.

You will change your life when you learn to let go.

 

[Illini Trader]

Does anyone really believe any of that?

Handel has been around forever. And Yes, you can believe anything he posts.

 

[SunTrader]

Handel has been around forever. And Yes, you can believe anything he posts.

Around forever means what exactly?

Plenty of people are around forever too stretching things. Like trading 150 ES contracts at a time. Reeeealy?

Get risk down to 0%, and 90% winners although said separartely.

 

[SunTrader]

Don't know if this was already mentioned about Thursday's RTH ES open but first few minutes bars broke above the previous day's (Wednesday) high signaling a possible long entry area.

As I said previously I plot all the data including Globex session so I didn't see it live. I have in the past plotted RTH charts, but there is just too much effen stuff to watch.
Maybe I'll rethink that.