Is trading easy?

[nooby_mcnoob]

I'm sure everyone is wondering what it means to be forced to trade.. so I will ask!

I know that every time I take a trade that I feel I was forced to take after watching it go in my direction and sitting in agony, its usually the worst time to enter.

Oh that is very tough to describe.

You're talking about FOMO. I'm talking about something different. No agony, only peace, zen, acceptance.

For example, early on today I knew I wanted to go long 3815. I waited for price to hit, see what it did, boom forced to trade because it was looking good. Easy 20 points.

 

[SunTrader]

I'm sure everyone is wondering what it means to be forced to trade.. so I will ask!

I know that every time I take a trade that I feel I was forced to take after watching it go in my direction and sitting in agony, its usually the worst time to enter.

Except when it continues to move in the anticipated direction. That is what gets you the next time. Confirmation bias.

"I was hesitant the last time but it would have worked, so this time blah blah"

Always have to be cognizant whether logic or emotions are deciding.

 

[NoahA]

Oh that is very tough to describe.

You're talking about FOMO. I'm talking about something different. No agony, only peace, zen, acceptance.

For example, early on today I knew I wanted to go long 3815. I waited for price to hit, see what it did, boom forced to trade because it was looking good. Easy 20 points.

Yes, FOMO, exactly right. But what do you mean by forced?

Also, anytime I wait to see the action at a specific price, it usually means having to enter at higher than your price because you want to see its being bought up. If you wait till it goes up 4 points, a 5 point stop now is rather tight because it doesn't allow for much of a poke.

Your trade in question, long at 3815 is reasonable, especially since the overnight low is at 3808.75. But if you take it right at 3815, your stop has to account for a poke of the overnight low. And even if you got in right at 3815, it still dropped to 3811, so that is already 4 points lower.

Not saying that 4 points against you is somehow detrimental, but I'm not sure if I call its a precise entry, and using a 5 point stop for what might only be a 10 point target is only 1:2. Awesome of course with a 50% win rate or higher, but you're gonna get it wrong half the time! LOL

 

[NoahA]

Except when it continues to move in the anticipated direction. That is what gets you the next time. Confirmation bias.

"I was hesitant the last time but it would have worked, so this time blah blah"

Always have to be cognizant whether logic or emotions are deciding.

Yes, confirmation bias is a bitch, but so is price risk vs. information risk. If you wait to see the trade working before entering, you're now paying a much higher price. The markets love to drop down one more time, flush out the stops below a swing low for example and then continue back up. Its very difficult to use a 3-4 point ES stop but also get in on a trade that shows the market is turning already.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Yes, FOMO, exactly right. But what do you mean by forced?

Also, anytime I wait to see the action at a specific price, it usually means having to enter at higher than your price because you want to see its being bought up. If you wait till it goes up 4 points, a 5 point stop now is rather tight because it doesn't allow for much of a poke.

Your trade in question, long at 3815 is reasonable, especially since the overnight low is at 3808.75. But if you take it right at 3815, your stop has to account for a poke of the overnight low. And even if you got in right at 3815, it still dropped to 3811, so that is already 4 points lower.

Not saying that 4 points against you is somehow detrimental, but I'm not sure if I call its a precise entry, and using a 5 point stop for what might only be a 10 point target is only 1:2. Awesome of course with a 50% win rate or higher, but you're gonna get it wrong half the time! LOL

Today, my stop was at 6 points with a target of 21 points as per my stupid swing range calculations.

ES was around that area for about 25 minutes. More than enough time to get a good entry with a 6 point stop...

 

[SunTrader]

eMini made a double bottom @ 3815 in the 8 o'clock hour EDT

 

[NoahA]

eMini made a double bottom @ 3815 in the 8 o'clock hour EDT

Yes, it did, but the overnight low was lower, and I honestly don't see anything that significant about 3815. The green arrow points to this 8am low. The red arrow shows another low at 3817, and this is also a double bottom, hence why none of these stand out for me other than the actual overnight low at 3809.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Yes, it did, but the overnight low was lower, and I honestly don't see anything that significant about 3815. The green arrow points to this 8am low. The red arrow shows another low at 3817, and this is also a double bottom, hence why none of these stand out for me other than the actual overnight low at 3809.

View attachment 288486

OK this is actually a good example.

Let's say I entered at 3815 and I was wrong, and it went down 6 points to 3809.

I'd have to just wait to see what happens next but I'd probably be looking for another long entry.

 

[NoahA]

I honestly don't see anything that significant about 3815.

If I change my bar chart to candles, I do see that at 3814.75 is a green candle that is bigger than others. Some people might call this a demand zone. Does this stand out as significant to anyone? Shown via the blue arrow.

 

[NoahA]

OK this is actually a good example.

Let's say I entered at 3815 and I was wrong, and it went down 6 points to 3809.

I'd have to just wait to see what happens next but I'd probably be looking for another long entry.

Luckily in this example your trade is safe since it never hit 3809, but you see that a stop right at the overnight low is actually a bad area for a stop? It ideally has to be lower than this. And ideally you would want to see what happens after the break. So often if can poke 2-3 points below a key level and then start getting bought back up after running the stops.

Also, if you know you're gonna try long again, it almost makes sense to not have such a tight stop. (but bigger stops of course get you in trouble as well)