Is trading E-minis a zero sum game or not?

Quote from Chicago_CTA:

Futures trading is *almost* a zero-sum game. Because every participating actor must pay commissions, even if they are a member and pay much lower commissions, it is not a true zero-sum game.

There is an inherent losing expectancy for everyone.

I would make the analogy of a roulette wheel with about 98 black/red slots and two green slots where players always lose.

This is why it's so important to pay a *reasonable* commission.

Also, one must have a distinct edge to be sustainable over time.

PM me if you have any questions.


-Chi
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I have all kinds of questions, but I don't PM. How the hell do you get a "distinct edge" playing roulette?

I think they have been trying to figure that out since long before I was born.

If they let you go to Las Vegas and bet on what people are probably going to do, you could make some consistent money.
 
If money is net flowing into futures markets, it is firmly positive sum.

If money is net flowing out of futures markets, it is firmly negative sum.

If money is net unchanged in futures markets, it is slightly negative sum.
 
Quote from oldtime:

hell no, none of this effects our trading, it's just something to bullshit about while we are waiting for something to happen. And if we are actually talking about trading we are probably lying. You never know when you are are bullshitting with someone when they willl make a mistake and actually give you some information.
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Genius!!!
 
OK, something else got into my mind.

With stocks you usually get dividends. But where the stock dividends disappear with the E-mini futures / S&P 500 stock index?
 
With S&p 500, dividends have no effect. One or two companies with good div., has to deal with the other companies which may have a missed earnings. Equals out.
 
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