Is Trading Dying Out?
- Thread starter MarketOwl
- Start date
Quote from piezoe:
Not only have "trashy", fornicating "Libs" wrecked the economy, started endless wars, created moral decay among our young men and women, but now these gay mafia loving, card carrying, pierced nose, pinko commies are even destroying ET!
Bring back Senator McCarthy!!!!!! LOL
Attached is a chart of a certain type of volatility.
Volatility, in this instance measured by NYSE advances versus declines, is the trader's friend, but it isn't too kind to people with 401-K's. Lots of movement but no NET progress. A lack of price persistency.
This is a chart of the last 40 years and reflects days (which should be rare) when advances were 70% of advances + declines ( or vice versa). Volatility has been far more pronounced n the last half decade. Basically, it appears to be a "new era". Reflects a lot of decisions being made as well as heightened uncertainty.
The blame would probably be directed at internet trading. Nope, web browsers have been widespread since the mid-1990's and institutions account for 70% of typical daily volume. Hedge funds? To a degree, but they've been around since 1949.
About the same time frame as the chart, the NYSE made a transition from spreads in 1/8 points to decimalization courtesy of the SEC. In turn, a faction of hedge funds, known as high frequency traders (HFT's) blossomed. Thousands of transactions EACH day often with a round turn (buy and sell) in less than a SECOND!
HFT's would be my choice for the culprit.
Volatility, in this instance measured by NYSE advances versus declines, is the trader's friend, but it isn't too kind to people with 401-K's. Lots of movement but no NET progress. A lack of price persistency.
This is a chart of the last 40 years and reflects days (which should be rare) when advances were 70% of advances + declines ( or vice versa). Volatility has been far more pronounced n the last half decade. Basically, it appears to be a "new era". Reflects a lot of decisions being made as well as heightened uncertainty.
The blame would probably be directed at internet trading. Nope, web browsers have been widespread since the mid-1990's and institutions account for 70% of typical daily volume. Hedge funds? To a degree, but they've been around since 1949.
About the same time frame as the chart, the NYSE made a transition from spreads in 1/8 points to decimalization courtesy of the SEC. In turn, a faction of hedge funds, known as high frequency traders (HFT's) blossomed. Thousands of transactions EACH day often with a round turn (buy and sell) in less than a SECOND!
HFT's would be my choice for the culprit.
I think it is both. A lot of traders left here because they were made fun, attacked, etc. Many traders will never come back to this site because they weren't treated nicely. That is certainly part of it and only because people were again rude/nasty here.
The other aspect is there aren't many people with the money to trade. There is no career in trading and no career path. While I'm not saying it was ever easy, my futures systems are among the very best of long term tracked systems, and I haven't been able to even attract a gnat's worth of interest. I only have one guy who is even considering to fund me. Remember, a large portion of the economy is out of work which makes it tighter for those working. So, it is also harder to raise the funds to give trading a shot. The few of us who have jobs or money are helping our family out or at least I am which makes for even less money.
I'm honestly thinking of calling it quits. I keep winning but I can't get funding. And, there is no floor to go too. Most of the prop firms out there are not places where anyone would want to work.
I didn't think it would end this way for me. I mean for it to end with me still winning and coming off 7 win streak. But, I can't get the money. Trading on the simulator or under-capitalized is like working 2 jobs around the clock with no reward and no end in sight.
I still have one person evaluating me. It makes me angry too. Not angry at HFT. HFT doesn't impact my trading style too much. But, it hurts my opportunity in terms of what I can do because really the only game in town is to start a hedge fund.
I do believe that discretionary prop/day trading is dead or dying. Firms like FSNY are talking about "hedge fund".
On the positives, there is more software and innovation I've seen this year then in a long time. The software is finally starting to improve and the retailers are starting to get some interesting products. Even so, there is a lot of competition and I wouldn't be surprised to see a major shakeout sometime in the next 6 months. I do think the software that allows one to program strategies especially very active strategies and bringing that to the retail level, i.e packed and supported products not requiring an IT team, is where the winner may be found.
The other thing is that it is still summer. I do not think it is just here though. A lot of the interest at some other sites have died out too.
The other aspect is there aren't many people with the money to trade. There is no career in trading and no career path. While I'm not saying it was ever easy, my futures systems are among the very best of long term tracked systems, and I haven't been able to even attract a gnat's worth of interest. I only have one guy who is even considering to fund me. Remember, a large portion of the economy is out of work which makes it tighter for those working. So, it is also harder to raise the funds to give trading a shot. The few of us who have jobs or money are helping our family out or at least I am which makes for even less money.
I'm honestly thinking of calling it quits. I keep winning but I can't get funding. And, there is no floor to go too. Most of the prop firms out there are not places where anyone would want to work.
I didn't think it would end this way for me. I mean for it to end with me still winning and coming off 7 win streak. But, I can't get the money. Trading on the simulator or under-capitalized is like working 2 jobs around the clock with no reward and no end in sight.
I still have one person evaluating me. It makes me angry too. Not angry at HFT. HFT doesn't impact my trading style too much. But, it hurts my opportunity in terms of what I can do because really the only game in town is to start a hedge fund.
I do believe that discretionary prop/day trading is dead or dying. Firms like FSNY are talking about "hedge fund".
On the positives, there is more software and innovation I've seen this year then in a long time. The software is finally starting to improve and the retailers are starting to get some interesting products. Even so, there is a lot of competition and I wouldn't be surprised to see a major shakeout sometime in the next 6 months. I do think the software that allows one to program strategies especially very active strategies and bringing that to the retail level, i.e packed and supported products not requiring an IT team, is where the winner may be found.
The other thing is that it is still summer. I do not think it is just here though. A lot of the interest at some other sites have died out too.