Is Trading a Perfect or Imperfect Information Game?

[marketsurfer]

Trading is a game of asymmetrical information. Noise traders such as technical analysts vs those with information. Can noise traders on the wrong end of information make money? Sure. However the first step us to see and accept the reality of not having information

The delusion that first attracted you to the market must be crushed prior to progress.

Those who claim otherwise simply do not have your best interest in mind
Or are under the common delusion


See surf report 1 and 2.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Martinghoul:

It depends on whether you believe in the technical analysis & charting mumbo-jumbo.

Exactly.

Information drives price. Perfect market chart artists believe the opposite. Unfortunate.

 

[Pinozi]

So surf and houl - do you believe that one cant make money trading using tech analysis or charting? (Unless your selling the snake oil )

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Pinozi:

So surf and houl - do you believe that one cant make money trading using tech analysis or charting? (Unless your selling the snake oil )

No, charters can and do make money. However it's despite of the chart not because of it.

Charts are not predictive just illustrative-- so for other than describing something visually. I don't get the point.

Ask yourself why do those who claim to have money making chart methods sell the methods? Why do FX dealers who make money when you lose money push TA heavily?

The answer is very clear.

 

[Pinozi]

Interesting belief you have about chartists there surf

I find debates about trading are just like debates on religion. Swap terms like insider, scalper, chartist etc with christian, muslim, jewish etc and it makes for some entertaining reading in some of the threads here

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from taojaxx:

May i reply with a question:
Do you have the same information as Goldman Sachs?
Answering this should answer your question.
GLTA

As a day trader looking to capture profit out of short term price swings, every bit of information I need is contained in the price footprint at any given point in time.

An example from my trading instrument, CL (crude oil):

Friday in pre-market I see that price was well-contained in a consolidation range through the overnight session, following a huge run up off Tuesday night lows. Price had broken through the range support not too long before I awoke, but had made a strong move back up and was not too far from trying to test the top of that range.

In my time frame (5-min bars), the near term trend was up for a test of previous bars' resistance levels @ 104.14 and 104.19, a break of which should take price through the overnight range high and on to new highs.

I took a long entry @ 104.00, price tried for 104.14 and failed quickly @ 104.10. The deep break of the overnight range and the failure to test previous resistance without sellers stepping in, told me price was very likely going back down, at least a little bit.

This was important "inside" information provided in full view to anyone who understands technical price action.

I reversed to a short @ 103.97 for, at minimum, a scalp.

News hit the wire.

Price fell well over a point and showed no sign of stopping.

Obviously Goldman Sachs' energy futures trading desk was among the many Big Boys who have state-of-art news keyword recognition programs and lightning fast trading programs that triggered to sell when that news hit.

But who ended up on the right side of the price movement BEFORE all the big players ran for the exits together and endured god-knows-what kind of slippage on the way down?

I did, because I'm a little 1-lot piker trading in my itty bitty 5-min time frame, playing on the fact that if price finds resistance at lower levels following a previous breakdown of a consolidation range after hitting new highs in a strong uptrend, price will likely try to retest that range break level.

Day traders are NOT at a disadvantage to the likes of GS, JPM and company. Investors are getting screwed, no doubt, but price action day traders have all the inside info they need in price itself.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from Pinozi:
So surf and houl - do you believe that one cant make money trading using tech analysis or charting? (Unless your selling the snake oil )

One can make money trading using voodoo...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Pinozi:

Interesting belief you have about chartists there surf

I find debates about trading are just like debates on religion. Swap terms like insider, scalper, chartist etc with christian, muslim, jewish etc and it makes for some entertaining reading in some of the threads here

Ha, thanks. Many TArs treat their beliefs like a religion also. I have recd threats when I question the TA gurus just like questioning the church in the 5th century.

Truth is I use charts--- but Just to illustrate. Not for real time trading decisions. I'm still waiting for real time trade calls from the TA gurus like I have been demonstrating in the surf report 2.

 

[Pinozi]

Quote from Martinghoul:

One can make money trading using voodoo...

LoL - Reminds me of a client I had who used astrology to trade the SPI. She cleaned up for a while then something went wrong with some moons on venus or jupiter and she gave it all back

I also thought of a good business idea selling the trading concept of "The rare and elusive 6th wave pattern" as a pisstake on elliot waves but I just couldn't handle the thought of being a trading cult leader when n00bs would start believing it

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from NoDoji:

As a day trader looki


Day traders are NOT at a disadvantage to the likes of GS, JPM and company. Investors are getting screwed, no doubt, but price action day traders have all the inside info they need in price itself.

You can't be serious. It's actually the opposite.

Ever hear of HFT? Daytraders are getting ripped to shreds at their own game.