Is tomorrow a black Friday?

Quote from Degenerate:

You are right everything it different from 2000. The world is a riskier place and risk premiums of dwindled to nothing.

The state of the economy?....All I know is that in 1980 it took $1 of debt to create $1 of GDP. That same $1 of expansion comes at a cost of $7 today. You think 3% GDP expansion is sustainable given the cost? I personally do not.

There is a big difference in true economic expansion and one that is debt induced. We are clearly in the latter and one day we will have to pay for it. I could go on in regards to how assets prices are simply a reflection of a liquidity driven bubble but whats the point. You clearly have your opinion and I have mine.

If you are comfortable levering up here on the long side power to you. I think the prudent thing to do is to exercise caution. I am acting accordingly.

Good Luck to you.
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where are you getting these numbers from?

productivity, employment, and energy output efficiency are all at record #s. In 1980, you had a market with PEs seriously contracted since cash and bonds were performing so well, and had intense inflationary pressure (from guess what? commodities) on top of that.

This environment is much more hospitable to economic growth than the previous one.

As far as total government debt, I agree we need to get a handle on that, but as a percentage of GDP its not way out of line. look to Japan for an example that makes us look like fiscal wizards. medicare/social security entitlements as well as annual budgets need to be resolved. thats a timebomb waiting to blow. but its not a near term issue. regardless, it seems dollar policy is to inflate our way out of debt responsibilities. That means equities appreciation, commodity appreciation, and DECREASED BUYING POWER.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/Sur...s_option=specific_periods&periods=Annual+Data

for unemployment rate. notice 1980 is near 8%, double current rates.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=PRS85006092

productivity rates are off the charts in comparison.
 
Quote from Degenerate:

You are right everything it different from 2000. The world is a riskier place and risk premiums of dwindled to nothing.

The state of the economy?....All I know is that in 1980 it took $1 of debt to create $1 of GDP. That same $1 of expansion comes at a cost of $7 today. You think 3% GDP expansion is sustainable given the cost? I personally do not.

There is a big difference in true economic expansion and one that is debt induced. We are clearly in the latter and one day we will have to pay for it. I could go on in regards to how assets prices are simply a reflection of a liquidity driven bubble but whats the point. You clearly have your opinion and I have mine.

If you are comfortable levering up here on the long side power to you. I think the prudent thing to do is to exercise caution. I am acting accordingly.

Good Luck to you.
More...

You had to have made that up. Did you know that 41% of statistics are made up on the spot?
 
BuyLo you made a little comment about watching the yen somewhere in this thread- I've lost it switching back and forth between Safari and my new Motzilla or whatever the hell it's called. That's the KEY point here- I tried to touch on it earlier here the PLUNGE PROTECTION crew have surly figured this out too. Now is a good time to watch the yen closely-- if we can beat it down stks go UP.
 
Quote from pipmaster:

Does that statistic fall within the 41%?
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Ding ding ding...we have a winner. It's a great one to break out with when someone is talking out of their ass. :D
 
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