Is this what trading is like?

[El Trado]

Why retail trade fx is beyond me.

Its like, someone wants to have a fitness hobby, so they take up bank robbery.

Why? The currencies can only go up or down. Just as any other asset class

 

[Nine_Ender]

Ok. Got any specific advice on running it like a business? Any of the previously mentioned strategies for limiting risk would not work for me... At least I don't think so. But I'm willing to change my mind if I'm wrong.

Btw, my account is now up 24% since March 9th. And I closed out the trade leaving about 3% on the table just to lock it in. (Eurusd)

Exchange rates can often be almost random in nature. Medium term you have posted some theories that are wildly in dispute amongst experts. US$ may get weaker again at some point this year because the US govt has been aggressively increasing government debt. Who knows really US$ is hard to forecast at the best of times.

My point would be I wouldn't choose exchange rates as my main trading instrument. I find even commodities prices hard to forecast short term but I trade commodity area related stocks based on their fundamentals and general momentum in underlying commodity prices. I did trade last year on the assumption that Cdn$/US$ at 69-72 cents was likely going up to some unknown area ( either 74-76 area or 78-82 area; the latter occurred ). Once the commodity bull cycle(s) are ending, I taper out of these areas.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Exchange rates can often be almost random in nature. Medium term you have posted some theories that are wildly in dispute amongst experts. US$ may get weaker again at some point this year because the US govt has been aggressively increasing government debt. Who knows really US$ is hard to forecast at the best of times.

My point would be I wouldn't choose exchange rates as my main trading instrument. I find even commodities prices hard to forecast short term but I trade commodity area related stocks based on their fundamentals and general momentum in underlying commodity prices. I did trade last year on the assumption that Cdn$/US$ at 69-72 cents was likely going up to some unknown area ( either 74-76 area or 78-82 area; the latter occurred ). Once the commodity bull cycle(s) are ending, I taper out of these areas.

I need lots of leverage to match what I can make elsewhere. Otherwise there's no point. Individual stocks wouldn't work. Unless you're talking about options on them.

 

[El Trado]

Exchange rates can often be almost random in nature. Medium term you have posted some theories that are wildly in dispute amongst experts.

Hmm. One should believe that this should be traceable?

 

[Nine_Ender]

View attachment 255692
Hmm. One should believe that this should be traceable?

Not every move is random. This is of course a complete repeat of what occurred the last time CDN$/US$ went under 70 cents. That time it rallied to $1.06 before the Bank of Canada took measures to damage the $CDN by design. My guess we'll see 90 cents within 2 years.

 

[themickey]

I need lots of leverage to match what I can make elsewhere. Otherwise there's no point. Individual stocks wouldn't work. Unless you're talking about options on them.

Leverage probably works best on low volatile trending instruments.
Fx has too much chop to qualify imo.

 

[cruisecontrol]

Spot the contradiction:

• farmerjohn1324 thinks FX movements are pretty unpredictable, knows he would be a fool to put much money into something so unpredictable
• farmerjohn1324 trades FX using 50x leverage, says "I need lots of leverage, otherwise there's no point"

hmm... yeah. I'm starting to think this might actually be a sophisticated troll that we all fell for.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Spot the contradiction:

• farmerjohn1324 thinks FX movements are pretty unpredictable, knows he would be a fool to put much money into something so unpredictable
• farmerjohn1324 trades FX using 50x leverage, says "I need lots of leverage, otherwise there's no point"

hmm... yeah. I'm starting to think this might actually be a sophisticated troll that we all fell for.

1. I only put an amount into my account that I could "afford to lose."

2. I require high leverage to match the 100%+ annual ROI I can achieve elsewhere.

You can try to micro-analyze every word I say, but at the end of the day.... Are you actually offering up any useful advice? Do you have any real reason I should be listening to you? I can prove every trade that I make.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Leverage probably works best on low volatile trending instruments.
Fx has too much chop to qualify imo.

I've been taking gains and staying out while expecting a pullback. I sold eurusd at 1.17830... It has since gone back up to 1.17985.

Not saying this is a perfect strategy. In fact, I'm basically guaranteeing that it's NOT a perfect strategy... But it's the best I have right now.

 

[El Trado]

2. I require high leverage to match the 100%+ annual ROI I can achieve elsewhere.

What are your other investment opportunities? Dealing drugs or weapons? 100 % annual ROI?