Is this what market top looks like?

Think about this. Those guessing where the top is will be right only 1 time. How many times will they be wrong? Multiple times. How many ET trolls have been predicting the top now over the last few months? All of them wrong, each and every time. You know fading the ET trolls, you will win out easily. Just exercise proper risk management and do not bet the farm. Like you being the casino and the ET trolls being the legions of gamblers trying to take Las Vegas down. You know how that ends up.
 
If you are investing/trading longer term, you should be looking for tops and bottoms in this market. For shorter term trading, i would agree that it's not a good idea and one should only trade WITH the momentum.

The way i see it, we are close to the top. The last 8th. But i am often wrong and often have to flip, we will see.

What's probably going to happen is market will squeeze up quickly and violently into a climax and then reverse hard.
 
Likely run to 2 - 3 days before the xmas holiday, then hard sell off / profit taking then who knows, to crazy to call.

NQ and ES just about took out previous highs today, NQ sitting right on 2nd Sept high.

BULLISH!!
 
My best guess...

upload_2020-12-3_0-17-56.png
 
The situation seems to be very similar to March right now, but inversed.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/this-is-what-a-market-bottom-looks-like.341912/

View attachment 245099

Comagnum also posted that fear&greed index which tends to represent sentiment quite well
View attachment 245100

We are probably very close to the top. The tops can be tricky though as the market can squeeze up quickly into the climax and only then reverse. It's probably very close, but it will only be obvious after it happens though.

Now seems a good time to unload your positions and wait in cash. Markets don't like uncertainty and we can't know how Trump will act, plus the Corona is starting to surge hard in the US and just by quick glance there are some problems going on in China-major companies defaulting?
I am not a fundamentalist, so this is just bluff...

But charts blowing off+ sentiment blowing off + economy starting to fall apart....

If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck, it is a duck.

yes but if it is obvious markets do not react to it

and right now with carona it is obvious we are in a midst of a huge adjustment in the way things will be done......this will lead to volatility....but not necessarily bearishness.

markets do climb a wall of worry, lose their balance fall and then again start to climb again
 
My best guess...

View attachment 245454

Still think this is in play.

Another year, another march. What's different this time?

IMO 30% correction is very possible in the next 1-2 months.

Market has a good way of convincing you it will go up only, it grinds up slowly, people get confident and then a rug pull happens as market dumps sharp.
Slow grind up, everyone gets in. Sharp dump down, everyone sells. Never changes.

High probability of Nasdaq hitting $8000 and spx $2600.

All of those gains will be erased very quickly.
 
Still think this is in play.

Another year, another march. What's different this time?

IMO 30% correction is very possible in the next 1-2 months.

Market has a good way of convincing you it will go up only, it grinds up slowly, people get confident and then a rug pull happens as market dumps sharp.
Slow grind up, everyone gets in. Sharp dump down, everyone sells. Never changes.

High probability of Nasdaq hitting $8000 and spx $2600.

All of those gains will be erased very quickly.

Let's see how you've done on this thread. Down 7.4% on the SPX in less then three months. I won't bore you with the monster gains I found long commodity stocks during the same time period.
 
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