Is this the reason why so many fail?

[afto]

With all due respect,I believe the main reason that the majority fail is that they think they can predict the future. Well, can you predict what your next thought will be?
Neither can I!
So,with the exception of those that can move or manipulate the market, it's probably smarter to begin from a position of not knowing and,perhaps, not even wanting to know
wherefore goes the market. Everything you see on the chart is history with squiggly lines. Make of it what you want but what I am suggesting is that you can better be in the flow
by seeing what is rather than what was.
My best days have always come as a complete surprise to me,just as my best moments in all other areas of my life sort of snuck up on me outta the blue,tapped me on the shoulder and smiled,"Lets play".
When all is said and done,it's just a game and, to paraphrase Ed Seykota, everyone always gets what they want. In that sense everyone DOES know exactly what they are doing.

Quote from The Expert:

Can't solve the wife bit for you, but maybe a little TIME before the action starts might help

The main reason why so many fail, is, because they do not have a clue about what they are doing:eek:

They think that books, courses and visiting websites will help them make some money, but, they never really stop and ask themselves, "what the FUK am I actually doing"

It helps to know a few KEY things before you trade

TE

 

[TrueProp]

Quote from afto:

80..90..95% failure rate.
The numbers don't make sense if you believe that there are only two results for a trade - win or lose and therefore profit or loss.
A monkey tapping orders from a keyboard should have a better chance of success even accounting for commission and slippage.
My explanation;
The high loss rate is primarily due to poor money management.

Trader A has a relatively high batting average (in terms of win/loss ratio) but hasn't learnt to capitalize on his winners
Trader B has a lower than average batting average and is unfamiliar with the concept of capitalizing on his winners.
Trader C also has a lower than average batting average (perhaps less than 30% W/L ratio) but has learnt to push his winners.

Who wins?
Trader B is soon out of the game. He might return but unless he's modified his behavior then chances are that he suffers the same fate, repeatedly.
Trader A stays in the game and might even make a buck or two but he tends to fight the market and the end result is usually borderline at best.
Trader C is much more likely to be and to stay in the 5% class because he has learnt to do what the majority of traders have most difficulty with.

Conclusion. Its not so much about picking the winners but rather its about riding the winners.
JMO

Riding your winners is definitely important. I believe cutting your losses quickly is even more important. All it takes is a few out of control losers to wipe out all of that profit you earned on "pushing" your winners.

 

[QuikrRetirement]

Quote from afto:

80..90..95% failure rate.
The numbers don't make sense if you believe that there are only two results for a trade - win or lose and therefore profit or loss.
A monkey tapping orders from a keyboard should have a better chance of success even accounting for commission and slippage.
My explanation;
The high loss rate is primarily due to poor money management.

Likely, but I think a chunk of that is also commissions, slippage, frequent trading, dumb errors as well.

I have several times seen calculations that it can take 30-70% annual return just to break even for volume traders.

 

[trendo]

Quote from QuikrRetirement:


I have several times seen calculations that it can take 30-70% annual return just to break even for volume traders.

A 70% return just to break even? I'd be interested in seeing those calculations you mentioned.

 

[hadlee]

let's not discuss faliure, let us discuss why we would succeed .

1) We succeed due to many hours of practice. This skill can be achieved either on simulator or tradng 1 lot real time with real money . Possibly in the process we may even discover a repeatable pattern that occurs approx 80% of the time, for a R/R of 3/1 in a single market .

2) We then slowly become more confident in our system based on the numbers in step 1 above . The system is robust enough to deal with small drawdowns , these are a business expense, let us say, a cost of doing business . This then leads us to our third step to success.

3) Trading large volume . Of course derived from trust and confidence ( W/L ratio + R/R) from step 1 . Only then do we get to see the spoils of thousands of hours of screen time. This i believe is the key to success , being 110% focused on the market.

Most seem to think they can give the market 20% of their time, that trading is easy money . They believe they will succeed sooner or later. This is false thinkng and why i believe most people fail sooner rather than later.

Just my two cents worth, take it as u wish .

 

[henry76]

You've all missed the point , most traders have to lose so that few can win , if the mistakes and problems were solved by the losing traders , it may make them win individually but others nescessarily would lose so the natural balance of most traders losing remained , in short so many fail becuase a few win big , and improving the trading of the losers won't change this , just change who loses , not that most lose, that stays !It's a bit like asking why so many players didn't win the u.s. open , the answer is simple , there can only be one winner , however well or badly they all play , i.e. traders are trading AGAINST each other .

 

[The Expert]

Quote from afto:

With all due respect,I believe the main reason that the majority fail is that they think they can predict the future. Well, can you predict what your next thought will be?
Neither can I!
So,with the exception of those that can move or manipulate the market, it's probably smarter to begin from a position of not knowing and,perhaps, not even wanting to know
wherefore goes the market. Everything you see on the chart is history with squiggly lines. Make of it what you want but what I am suggesting is that you can better be in the flow
by seeing what is rather than what was.
My best days have always come as a complete surprise to me,just as my best moments in all other areas of my life sort of snuck up on me outta the blue,tapped me on the shoulder and smiled,"Lets play".
When all is said and done,it's just a game and, to paraphrase Ed Seykota, everyone always gets what they want. In that sense everyone DOES know exactly what they are doing.

YES, BUT, if you cut a blade of grass you know that 2 more will grow, and, what you should be asking, is, why does 2 more grow, and not just accept the fact:eek:

There is a REASON for everything that happens, and to think differently, well, is to think incorrectly, and, to think incorrectly, well, is just plain and silly, for, that will never do you any good

What will be, will be, but, it will be, for A REASON

TE

 

[zaitoichi]

Limiting losses through risk management is paramount. What do you think ?

 

[good one]

Poor money management can make a system with positive expectation a loser but no money management system can make a system with negative expectation a winner.
The reality is at the sum most simply are not trading a system with positive expectation after transaction costs.

 

[afto]

To think differently is to think differently. Nothing more, nothing less, neither correct nor incorrect.
Do I need to know why new grass will grow in place of old grass?
No.
Do you believe it is worthwhile to understand the reason for everything?
If you do, that is fine and I'm happy to learn from you.
However, without appreciation, all the knowledge in the World is merely a booby prize.
JMO

Quote from The Expert:

YES, BUT, if you cut a blade of grass you know that 2 more will grow, and, what you should be asking, is, why does 2 more grow, and not just accept the fact:eek:

There is a REASON for everything that happens, and to think differently, well, is to think incorrectly, and, to think incorrectly, well, is just plain and silly, for, that will never do you any good

What will be, will be, but, it will be, for A REASON

TE