Is this The Holy Grail of Trading?

Sekiyo said:
The Golden Goose is where no one’s looking at
Which is around the far right of your chart.

Welcome to EliteChartist.com
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THERE;
+ can be anywhere.
Rose Acre Farms sells more than $607,777 worth of chicken eggs, not as much as Cal-Maine, nor as big as a goose egg. Not a stock tip; capital markets illustration.
Some said ''no such thing as a unicorn'' LOL Really?? Thats what silicon valley nicknames a start up company.:D:D
 
Being successful is only the tipping point of the iceberg. A lovely concept from system thinking.

To note: The deeper we dive, the more leverage we have aka. small shift produce big change.

Little slide show

IMG_9408.png


From Mark Douglas (Again…)
The market is an unstructured environment where anything is possible, as compared to a casino.
Traders have to structure their game (Contract theory). They have to decide for themselves the rules (Risk, Payoff, Start, Stop, Add, Remove, …)

The less structure. The less accountable the trader.

What’s interesting is the structures have a deeper impact than the pattern, we’re trying to exploit, on the event (Outcome)

Cheers :D
 
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Sekiyo said:
Keep an open mind.


I don’t see where the dice thing is a problem. Maybe you don’t consider yourself as a degenerate gambler. Because you haven’t figured out yet who you are.
You prefer to lose money the smart way than to make money the dumb way ?
Everyone’s his priorities …
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LOL, same here.
I dont consider throwing dice or trading-investing gambling , not in monopoly anyway:D:D
Dave Ramsey said not everything that happens in Vegas stays in Vegas;
7 or 11 doughnuts went with him:caution::caution:
 
Trading is not about predicting the outcome of a trade.
We're not here to win the trade at whatever price.
It's about capturing a positive expectation.

If we enter at random in an uptrend with a 1 to 1 Reward to Risk
Then we made a nice little bet, whether we win or lose.
Over the long run, we should be making money.

All we can do is ...
1. Define the probabilities better
2. Define the Reward to risk better
3. Define the exposure, bet size, better

Maybe someone can tell the difference between a 60% and a 80% Winrate Setup.
In this case he's defining probabilities better and should bet more on the later.
Because he still has an edge @ 60% with a 1 to 1 Reward to Risk (20%)

Maybe someone can tell the difference between a 1 to 1 and a 3 to 5 Payoff Setup.
In this case he's defining Reward to Risk better and should adjust his exit targets.

Whether we win or lose is outside our control.
The trader has done his job aka. Making a +EV bet.
He planned the trade (Entry, Exits, Size) and traded the plan !
 
Mental models are very important.
You can't win the game if you hold erroneous beliefs about it.
Found some value within Mark Douglas book's Trading in the Zone

How we structure our trade is very important !
We can turn gold into shit by cutting corners, over betting or playing it safe

Patterns are definitely important,
We can't turn shit into gold

Events ?!
They are only meaningful with a large enough sample size !
 
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Sekiyo said:
Trading is not about predicting the outcome of a trade.
We're not here to win the trade at whatever price.
It's about capturing a positive expectation.

If we enter at random in an uptrend with a 1 to 1 Reward to Risk
Then we made a nice little bet, whether we win or lose.
Over the long run, we should be making money.

All we can do is ...
1. Define the probabilities better
2. Define the Reward to risk better
3. Define the exposure, bet size, better

Maybe someone can tell the difference between a 60% and a 80% Winrate Setup.
In this case he's defining probabilities better and should bet more on the later.
Because he still has an edge @ 60% with a 1 to 1 Reward to Risk (20%)

Maybe someone can tell the difference between a 1 to 1 and a 3 to 5 Payoff Setup.
In this case he's defining Reward to Risk better and should adjust his exit targets.

Whether we win or lose is outside our control.
The trader has done his job aka. Making a +EV bet.
He planned the trade (Entry, Exits, Size) and traded the plan !
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Good points;
except i dont think any uptrend is random.
Partial disclosure/ i did read that random walkers WSJ article, not waste my time reading his random walkers book with green cover [BGM,LOL]:D:D
He said since he likes to gamble/ he does single stocks/LOL
I dont consider single stocks a gamble, not for me anyway ;
frankly I made more gambling in pool halls as teen than single stocks in JAN FEB,2023.LOL
But FFTY[IBD related ] has not done as well as the QQQchart trend you posted. So good green QQQ [EV,ai- machine learning trend] .
Of course if any has gotten soem good green thru that ''random walker; LOL ;
please post it. Good point on coco countertrend.......
Dr van Tharp noted the top 2 winners in the 1,000 round shooting match ;
so 1,000 days is much '' better'' than 1.ooo daytrade for me. Hope this helps.
 
Listening to the market …
Even me … I put a trade on and leave the screen.

We’re not listening.
We make up our mind then impose our beliefs.
Like if we knew what was going to happen.
We watch bullshits for hours until the end
But we’re not willing to listen our boss.

Dude … Just Keep Listening.
Don’t be a cocky smart nerdy bitch.

At school I didn’t do the homework,
But I was always listening and it helped me.
When the test came I was able to score above average.

Learn the clues.
The market is showing its hands.
Focus on losing small and tentative bets,
Then let them grow into something meaningful.

NN Taleb’s financial advices
1) Keep a clear mind
2) Figure out asymmetries
3) Never talk to idiots

We don’t need to believe anything …
Bullish … Bearish … Breakout … Mean Reversion
Let the tape leads you where / when it want to go.

You can’t be the leader … Anyway.
The map isn’t the territory. Neither.

Our beliefs are lagging the tape,
As they’re based on past performance.

That’s why most traders fail,
Because they’re trading their beliefs,
Which are based on the past and their ego.

Guess I am following the footsteps of my master @SimpleMeLike

Take your best guess. Gamble. Have fun. :D

Every day is a different story
 
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Sekiyo said:
Listening to the market …
Even me … I put a trade on and leave the screen.

We’re not listening.
We make up our mind then impose our beliefs.
Like if we knew what was going to happen.
We watch bullshits for hours until the end
But we’re not willing to listen our boss.

Dude … Just Keep Listening.
Don’t be a cocky smart nerdy bitch.

At school I didn’t do the homework,
But I was always listening and it helped me.
When the test came I was able to score above average.

Learn the clues.
The market is showing its hands.
Focus on losing small and tentative bets,
Then let them grow into something meaningful.

NN Taleb’s financial advices
1) Keep a clear mind
2) Figure out asymmetries
3) Never talk to idiots

We don’t need to believe anything …
Bullish … Bearish … Breakout … Mean Reversion
Let the tape leads you where / when it want to go.

You can’t be the leader … Anyway.
The map isn’t the territory. Neither.

Our beliefs are lagging the tape,
As they’re based on past performance.

That’s why most traders fail,
Because they’re trading their beliefs,
Which are based on the past and their ego.

Guess I am following the footsteps of my master @SimpleMeLike

Take your best guess. Gamble. Have fun. :D

Every day is a different story
More...
Hello Sekiyo,

Get Paid, that is the only bottom line in trading. My trading results have been marvelous when I start guessing and gambling the ES futures markets. And do what ever I want to do. Trading theories is bullshit.

I am not reading no trading books and damn sure not listening to noone.


 
Sekiyo said:
Listening to the market …
Even me … I put a trade on and leave the screen.

Our beliefs are lagging the tape,
As they’re based on past performance.

That’s why most traders fail,
Because they’re trading their beliefs,
Which are based on the past and their ego.

Guess I am following the footsteps of my master @SimpleMeLike
Take your best guess. Gamble. Have fun. :D

Every day is a different story
More...
%%
Actually i weight a blue[lagging,LOL] 50 day moving average more so than any bid\ask tape.
Its ''better '' than a gamble. Sure/ risk is involved, in anything ..........................
Its a matter of public record; if one got good enough to be a winner -card counter, in Silver State; they may goof up your brakes ,oops on the mountain slide\ride:D:D
I read an article, once, it noted ''there is thin blue line between you + DANGER''
I thought they were talking about a blue 50day moving average line.
Actually it was the Las Vegas Police Dept. Like the cop warned me '' be careful [2023]''
One gamble had a great, fine line , when a lazy street bum asked him for money;
he says'' hey buddy,you work this side of the street + I'll work the other side'':D:D
 
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