Is this TA?

[Eddiemorra]

surf

PS-- be very cautious of the Price Action and TA promoters on this site-

How do you know who to listen too, though?
On trade2win, you know who the good traders are, because they post lots of realtime calls most days, but on elitetrader, the ones who claim to be experts never demonstrate it.

 

[redbox]

A discussion in another thread provoked to me to think about whether all use of charts is TA. Lets take the example attached. The chart shows a H1 candlestick chart of crude oil.

My hypothesis is that price will very likely at some point return to the blue line. The reason for this is not based on a historical pattern or indicators etc. My reasoning is that during the red bar traders large enough to stop and reverse price got short looking for lower prices. As you can see from the price action since the red bar oil initially went lower and then rallied to put those that didn't bank underwater. I believe that the traders who can move price will likely now push the price down to the blue line to allow them to buy and net out the position. In the process they will likely bank some profit from selling higher up.

Is this sort of analysis TA?

View attachment 156913

A discussion in another thread provoked to me to think about whether all use of charts is TA. Lets take the example attached. The chart shows a H1 candlestick chart of crude oil.

My hypothesis is that price will very likely at some point return to the blue line. The reason for this is not based on a historical pattern or indicators etc. My reasoning is that during the red bar traders large enough to stop and reverse price got short looking for lower prices. As you can see from the price action since the red bar oil initially went lower and then rallied to put those that didn't bank underwater. I believe that the traders who can move price will likely now push the price down to the blue line to allow them to buy and net out the position. In the process they will likely bank some profit from selling higher up.

Is this sort of analysis TA?

View attachment 156913

Hi London kid,

So is price going to go back up this time? This is the FTSE 100 H1 this morning

 

[Eddiemorra]

Hi London kid,

So is price going to go back up this time? This is the FTSE 100 H1 this morning

I think that's the concept, yes

 

[londonkid]

Hi London kid,

So is price going to go back up this time? This is the FTSE 100 H1 this morning

Hey redbox. I have absolutely no idea lol. Bear in mind that I provided one live example on crude oil where I was very sure price would likely return for a number of reasons. This does not mean that every time price breaks out of something it will return to where traders went offside. Trading just doesn't work like that. I suspect you are looking for an edge (its a hunch). You might find my post in Eddies thread helpful.

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...ugglers-out-there.285900/page-25#post-4181164

GL

 

[londonkid]

I think that's the concept, yes

in my experience trading very rarely works on the basis of if A then B.

 

[redbox]

Hey redbox. I have absolutely no idea lol. Bear in mind that I provided one live example on crude oil where I was very sure price would likely return for a number of reasons. This does not mean that every time price breaks out of something it will return to where traders went offside. Trading just doesn't work like that. I suspect you are looking for an edge (its a hunch). You might find my post in Eddies thread helpful.

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...ugglers-out-there.285900/page-25#post-4181164

GL

HaHa hey thanks, no not looking for an edge. Just saw this and it reminded me of your post.
It will come back up btw.....at some point.

 

[redbox]

HaHa hey thanks, no not looking for an edge. Just saw this and it reminded me of your post.
It will come back up btw.....at some point.

Boom!

 

[Blueline]

in my experience trading very rarely works on the basis of if A then B.

mmmmm.....this cannot be true!.....let me explain.....
There is nothing in this world that exist "independently" on its own. Everything that exist must "depend" on something else.
If what you are saying is true.....then there can be NO "cause and effect"....."B" cannot happen without "A".....yet....."B" depends on "A".

 

[londonkid]

mmmmm.....this cannot be true!.....let me explain.....
There is nothing in this world that exist "independently" on its own. Everything that exist must "depend" on something else.
If what you are saying is true.....then there can be NO "cause and effect"....."B" cannot happen without "A".....yet....."B" depends on "A".

i don't really want to get into a pissing match about logic as it serves no purpose. All I am interested in is finding edges and executing them consistently for green plus winding Surf up for sport.

If you can make it work for you and be in the winning minority then respect and kudos to you.

GL.

 

[Q3D]

mmmmm.....this cannot be true!.....let me explain.....
There is nothing in this world that exist "independently" on its own. Everything that exist must "depend" on something else.
If what you are saying is true.....then there can be NO "cause and effect"....."B" cannot happen without "A".....yet....."B" depends on "A".

In trading, it is not as simple as if A then B, for B depends on A and many other variables, which day traders cannot factor. For example, a trending daily breakout in Crude Oil futures appears to be a simple variable (A) leading to a high probability of follow-through the next day (B). The retail day trader is unaware that A(the daily breakout) is codependent upon other variables: A.A, A.B, A.C, A.D, A.E,...etc, (inventories, macroeconomics, reports, short covering) for that follow-through buying to occur. Day traders often assume when they see "A"(daily breakout) that institutions will be looking at similar data and making a decision to continue buying (B) based on that, which is not true.