Is this seriously what trend traders do?

[bone]

There is a master trend, which comes from long term time frame studies, and then there are secondary and tertiary trends which define market corrections and retracements.

The common element is the requirement to use always start out using the longer time frames for modeling first, and then shorter duration time frames. This is why I mentioned Drummond Geometry and Market Profile in an earlier thread.

You HAVE to use the longer timeframes first in order to identify the true master trend in a market. This was drilled into my head by Pete Franz - Kellogg grad and monster bond trader for Lehman Brothers in the 80's and early 90's.

 

[Grantx]

There is a master trend, which comes from long term time frame studies, and then there are secondary and tertiary trends which define market corrections and retracements.

Except when there isn't.
Try figuring out this turd burgler.

 

[bone]

Except when there isn't.
Try figuring out this turd burgler.

That's right. The master uptrend started in 2008 gets taken out in 2013; the master downtrend started in 2013 gets taken out in June of 2016 - and you are now in a consolidation period. As Steidelmeyer would put it: you are in a well defined control area.

IMHO, this makes swing trading off of DAILY time frames much less risky than doing so under a defined master trend condition (which Gold is not at present - it's in a consolidation state).

I think it's an opportunity quite frankly:

 

[Traderjohnsblog]

Sorry to jump in here. Cant help it. I need more context but what you have is a large price correction to a probable resumption of an up trend. Notice to the right side of the chart price has made a higher swing low. This is indicative of the begining of an up trend. Its not tradable yet because it needs conformation.

The overall trend is confusing only because of the correction in price/trend possibly rolling over. What does this chart look look like now?

 

[bone]

GrantX, why not consider risking 1,320 here for a target of 1,225 ? It's kind of a classic set-up...

 

[Traderjohnsblog]

With regard to multi time frame trend analysis this may help.
Here

 

[bone]

The overall trend is confusing only because of the correction in price/trend possibly rolling over.

As I stated the confusion you see is what a market in a consolidation phase looks like. For more granularity look at the Daily chart I posted above. Also, consider Steidelmeyer's Market Profile - it's really a cracking way to look at market behavior.

 

[bone]

With regard to multi time frame trend analysis this may help.

Yes, this is why I have cited Drummond Geometry repeatedly in this thread. It's more sorted out and systematic than your article. The foundation of Drummond is multiple time frames.

 

[Grantx]

Steidelmeyer's Market Profile

Never heard of that but Im going to look into it. Ive been relying on my own bastardised version of Wyckoff accumulation/distribution patterns. I like your simple approach - if I had the balls to swing trade I would.

 

[bone]

- if I had the balls to swing trade I would.

I'm afraid that swing trading might be the last bastion of human traders; at the very least, it might keep us relevant versus the high speed bots. I think that's where the paradigm has been shifting to for the past couple decades.