Is this rally the real deal & start of a new uptrend?
- Thread starter DisciplinedHedg
- Start date
The perma bulls are far worse. They ignore the worst fundamentals in decades. And have no explanation of what will drive the economy in its next expansion. Sure as hell isn't going to be the consumer at record debt to income ratios, and no refis to help with that situation. Exports? Way to small as a % of the econ. I just don't see anything out there.
But back to the thread. This bottom may have legs. The previous 400 pt rally was pathetic, this one was pretty good with volume, etc. I think we may go and test the upper range again (1400 SP). Overall, I think we will set at least one lower low, and will have some capitulation which we haven't had yet. Although the FED is fighting like crazy to help the banks, many of them are walking dead, with negative balance sheets if they priced in their bad loans. Just today, RGE monitor (Roubani's Econ Company) disclosed that the top 5 investment banks have bad loans ranging from a value equal to .7 - 2.5 times their assets. This is a nightmare that still needs to be worked through.
I would have liked to have voted: Too soon to tell.
Looking at ES, yesterday's volume (if my data is correct) was not terribly bullish but the price action overnight and so far today is. As long as we're above 1325ish and don't significantly take out last nights low
the daily might be turning. IMO it's way too soon to say on the weekly but it certainly MIGHT be a DB.
Looking at ES, yesterday's volume (if my data is correct) was not terribly bullish but the price action overnight and so far today is. As long as we're above 1325ish and don't significantly take out last nights low
the daily might be turning. IMO it's way too soon to say on the weekly but it certainly MIGHT be a DB.
What scares me the most is how "mispriced" this market can be up until the very last moment of truth.
BSC went from $60 to $5 in 3 days. It took Enron at least 7 months to do that.
So when people say all the negative is priced into the market. That is proof positive that it is impossible to tell.
So to me, that Black Swan day is alot closer and alot more real than most people may think.
BSC went from $60 to $5 in 3 days. It took Enron at least 7 months to do that.
So when people say all the negative is priced into the market. That is proof positive that it is impossible to tell.
So to me, that Black Swan day is alot closer and alot more real than most people may think.