Is this like 2003 when bulls went mad?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
here is a simple study looking at the top 0.5% SPY monthly moves since 08-1994. the current move actually has 3 occurrences in the list, signifying its excessiveness. if you look at how most of these historical moves developed, you will see that typically they include a correction of several %. the current move HAS NOT HAD such a correction.
i think those lucky bastards who have spare cash right now can make a quick killing by selling slightly ITM Aug calls. please let me know if i am too biased and short-sighted in my analysis.
i think those lucky bastards who have spare cash right now can make a quick killing by selling slightly ITM Aug calls. please let me know if i am too biased and short-sighted in my analysis.
Worst case you're assigned, and end up short some SPY. I mean the bulls have to stop to replenish their party supplies at some point, don't they?
On the subject of bulls, if you really want to make a killing place a buy stop order on GMCR just above 72.00. Their short interest is off the charts and one look at the chart shows you in graphic detail what caffeine can do to people.
Wow!
38% of the FLOAT is short.
Should get an accurate short-interest number out this next week.
That's amazing.
:eek:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stoc...t-Coffee-GMCR-DDRX0806.aspx?partner=YahooSA
Keurig Single Cup coffee maker:
http://www.keurig.com/company.asp?mscsid=FAH19SU64X248KMJCJ19P23S3B8E97K6
1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?
Bullish 55.62% 761 votes
Bearish 29.02% 397 votes
Neutral 15.35% 210 votes
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10568499/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html
4th week in a row shows strong bullish sentiment in this poll. VIX also has been dropping. this is a strange rally, no wall of worry at all.
Bullish 55.62% 761 votes
Bearish 29.02% 397 votes
Neutral 15.35% 210 votes
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10568499/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html
4th week in a row shows strong bullish sentiment in this poll. VIX also has been dropping. this is a strange rally, no wall of worry at all.
another sentiment measure shows extreme bullishness:
50% of retail investors are now bullish on stocks, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors' survey. This is the first time the 50% level has been breached since May 2008, just ahead of a sharp decline.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=94510
50% of retail investors are now bullish on stocks, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors' survey. This is the first time the 50% level has been breached since May 2008, just ahead of a sharp decline.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=94510
thsi is a perpetual bull market. The huge funds that move the market see steady 4-8% YOY GDP growth with high unemployment and rapid technological expansion.
interest rates are STILL at zero even though the SPX is up 52% and climbing.
By the time the rate cycle completes the DJIA may be at 18000 and SPX 2000 or so with PE ratios around 25. These are conservative figures.
interest rates are STILL at zero even though the SPX is up 52% and climbing.
By the time the rate cycle completes the DJIA may be at 18000 and SPX 2000 or so with PE ratios around 25. These are conservative figures.
Quote from shortie:
here is a simple study looking at the top 0.5% SPY monthly moves since 08-1994. the current move actually has 3 occurrences in the list, signifying its excessiveness. if you look at how most of these historical moves developed, you will see that typically they include a correction of several %. the current move HAS NOT HAD such a correction.
i think those lucky bastards who have spare cash right now can make a quick killing by selling slightly ITM Aug calls. please let me know if i am too biased and short-sighted in my analysis.
I am short otm calls and am thinking of covering! This is a very strong market, goes up on bad news eg retail sales today. The inverted head and shoulders pattern on the es hourly projects to 1046.
acepowerdrive
Guest
same stimulus in 2002 interest rates was 1% and easy credit..
it's just now it's .25% but without the easy credit but unemployment is still high and inflation is high. banks won't lend to people with no income ,no job fewer people are is qaulified to borrow money
banks aren't going to make the same mistake in lending to risky individuals or busineesss
interest rates are cheap and low but credit is reduced or no credit for bad borrowers. same policy as post recession japan in the 90's
investment banks and banks will be cutting back on lending to hedge funds and risky bonds
stagflation is what you get in the long run if the fundamentals aren't improving.
or just stagnant economy with no inflation just low interest rates to keep dead zombie banks from going bankrupt from all the bad assets. no growth in stock. even this forum is a graveyard.
it's just now it's .25% but without the easy credit but unemployment is still high and inflation is high. banks won't lend to people with no income ,no job fewer people are is qaulified to borrow money
banks aren't going to make the same mistake in lending to risky individuals or busineesss
interest rates are cheap and low but credit is reduced or no credit for bad borrowers. same policy as post recession japan in the 90's
investment banks and banks will be cutting back on lending to hedge funds and risky bonds
stagflation is what you get in the long run if the fundamentals aren't improving.
or just stagnant economy with no inflation just low interest rates to keep dead zombie banks from going bankrupt from all the bad assets. no growth in stock. even this forum is a graveyard.
Quote from shortie:
can this really be the new multi-year bull market?
there are some similarities to 2003 when SPY kept getting more and more overbought but kept getting higher and higher. notice that based on the overbought levels we may be somewhere in June 2003 (attaching the charts in the next post). 2003 run-up was accompanied by a major VIX collapse just like now.
2003:
NOW:
