Hey Rufus..
I'm not sure if I understand what you were trying to say in this statement. Are you saying you would turn around and sell them immediately? Then what happens when they want to buy their gas 10 yrs later if the going price is 3X? Do you know the cost to hedge til an unknown time? And were you hoping to be able to cover that with membership fees? Or were you thinking of making the membership fee based on volatility, interest rates, costs of storage and delivery? The dangling unknown time factor is what isn't settling right for me.
I hope all this didn't sound overly-critical. I know texting can come across in a different way. I'm simply thinking this thing thru.
THIS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS,,,, to clarify that statement what i meant is in his example where he said 10 million gallons sold at price 2 and assumes it goes to 1 dollar a agallon,,, i was referring to static example cuz in the real world the scenario wouldnt be clear cut like that,,, when prices drop demand for gasoline from everywhere and from us increases which means more consumers purchases and more member ship fees and more gasoline spread,,,, what iam saying is where the money is made from is not only from member ship fees but also from spread on gas we sell to the consumer it self,,, not every consumer will buy gas at lets say 1.4 when its 1.2 at the pump,,, but for some it will be worth it since WE fix that price for them for as long as they keep their member ship,,, longer duration means longer member ships to be collected from those who dont redeem right away and use cash instead or buy even more from us,,, longer duration means money sits longer with the corporation allowing it to generate even more and earn more both on interest and time decay of options that we would be deployed for gasoline we intend to purchase any ways on behalf of consumers,,, so for the example above 10 million sold at 2 dollars a gallon, thats static,,, whats dynamic is that we know if we sold 10 million at 2 then at 1 dollar we sell lets say 20 million gallons and based upon that puts would be shorted, if they expire in the money were gonna buy any ways if they dont then thats extra profit added,,,,,,, also dont forget,, consumer pays full price, we pay only margin req on futures,,, thus the extra money can be deployed on strategies within the company such as the puts selling or hedging thats above and beyond the basic hedge of just buying a CONTRACT...
now u bring up an important thing which is do i know the cost to hedge to an unknown time,, i dont expect to know precisely the exact number because the unknown variable here is when will the customer redeem??? since they have no expiration thats constantly changing but inflows and outflows can offset that where it builds a matrix,,, we might lose on one customer here and lose on another there,,,,,
at its most basic form, we can increase prices premium we charge for any new customers that want to purchase,,, of course this will make some NEW CUSTOMER shy away or existing ones from not buying more,,, but the lower the price the less sensitive the customer is about it since he is mostly concerned about his expectation of future prices and uses us to lock in his price