Is this (COVID) research being disingenuous or am I stupid

[nooby_mcnoob]

https://rocs.hu-berlin.de/news/role_of_vaccinated/

I couldn't make it past the highlighted section which basically says that old people who were fully vaccinated were still the majority of breakthrough symptomatic cases. In this case, 85% of people in the 60+ age group are vaccinated, yet 61% of the breakthrough cases in this age group are vaccinated. They then use these statistics to conclude via fancy matrix algebra that unvaccinated are causing covid infections. Some layman's math says that for the vaccines to be completely ineffective, you'd expect 85% of symptomatic infections to be from vaccinated people. The fact that you see 61% means they are almost ineffective to me.

Anyone want to read the rest of it and tell me why I'm wrong?

 

[gwb-trading]

https://rocs.hu-berlin.de/news/role_of_vaccinated/

I couldn't make it past the highlighted section which basically says that old people who were fully vaccinated were still the majority of breakthrough symptomatic cases. In this case, 85% of people in the 60+ age group are vaccinated, yet 61% of the breakthrough cases in this age group are vaccinated. They then use these statistics to conclude via fancy matrix algebra that unvaccinated are causing covid infections. Some layman's math says that for the vaccines to be completely ineffective, you'd expect 85% of symptomatic infections to be from vaccinated people. The fact that you see 61% means they are almost ineffective to me.

Anyone want to read the rest of it and tell me why I'm wrong?

View attachment 271934

This article explains how the Covid statistics and information works. It also outlines that you need to be taking a look at the percentage of unvaccinated deaths and hospitalizations -- not just the raw numbers.

Currently the vaccinated breakthrough rate is below 0.5% world-wide -- which is very low for a vaccine in an environment where a disease has high prevalence. Similarly over 90% of hospitalizations and deaths in western countries are unvaccinated.

The vaccinated deaths and hospitalizations tend to be much older than unvaccinated hospitalizations and deaths. Many of the vaccinated elderly also have other medical conditions which compromise their immune systems and make them vulnerable despite being vaccinated.

COVID death data can be shared to make it look like vaccines don't work, or worse – but that's not the whole picture
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-11-covid-death-vaccines-dont-worse.html

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

This article explains how the Covid statistics and information works. It also outlines that you need to be taking a look at the percentage of unvaccinated deaths and hospitalizations -- not just the raw numbers.

Currently the vaccinated breakthrough rate is below 0.5% world-wide -- which is very low for a vaccine in an environment where a disease has high prevalence. Similarly over 90% of hospitalizations and deaths in western countries are unvaccinated.

The vaccinated deaths and hospitalizations tend to be much older than unvaccinated hospitalizations and deaths. Many of the vaccinated elderly also have other medical conditions which compromise their immune systems and make them vulnerable despite being vaccinated.

COVID death data can be shared to make it look like vaccines don't work, or worse – but that's not the whole picture
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-11-covid-death-vaccines-dont-worse.html

Correct, the vaccinated elderly who have the most negative outcomes are the ones least helped (proportionally) to the % of vaccinated. 61% of total admissions from a population of 85% of vaccinated should be much lower if they were effective.

My point is that I think the data are starting to show the vaccines don't seem to help the very people who are most at risk.

 

[easymon1]

This article explains how the Covid statistics and information works. It also outlines that you need to be taking a look at the percentage of unvaccinated deaths and hospitalizations -- not just the raw numbers.

Currently the vaccinated breakthrough rate is below 0.5% world-wide -- which is very low for a vaccine in an environment where a disease has high prevalence. Similarly over 90% of hospitalizations and deaths in western countries are unvaccinated.

The vaccinated deaths and hospitalizations tend to be much older than unvaccinated hospitalizations and deaths. Many of the vaccinated elderly also have other medical conditions which compromise their immune systems and make them vulnerable despite being vaccinated.

COVID death data can be shared to make it look like vaccines don't work, or worse – but that's not the whole picture
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-11-covid-death-vaccines-dont-worse.html

The bigger the print the truer it is.

 

[UsualName]

Correct, the vaccinated elderly who have the most negative outcomes are the ones least helped (proportionally) to the % of vaccinated. 61% of total admissions from a population of 85% of vaccinated should be much lower if they were effective.

My point is that I think the data are starting to show the vaccines don't seem to help the very people who are most at risk.

I think the “most negative” outcome would be death. The paper cites the majority of symptomatic breakthrough cases were among the 60+ cohort. I am not sure where you got 61% total admissions.

What I will say is the paper seems to be trying to flush out the effectiveness non pharmaceutical interventions (ie lockdowns) targeted toward the unvaccinated. The author poses NPIs may not be “legitimate” for vaccinated people. I presume this is because vaccinated people have lower rates of transmission.

Do you have the link for the whole paper?

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I think the “most negative” outcome would be death. The paper cites the majority of symptomatic breakthrough cases were among the 60+ cohort. I am not sure where you got 61% total admissions.

What I will say is the paper seems to be trying to flush out the effectiveness non pharmaceutical interventions (ie lockdowns) targeted toward the unvaccinated. The author poses NPIs may not be “legitimate” for vaccinated people. I presume this is because vaccinated people have lower rates of transmission.

Do you have the link for the whole paper?

85% of 60+ cohort are vaccinated, 61% of total admissions of 60+ are vaccinated. That's where the numbers come from.

The link is the first URL in the original post.

Your summary reads quite scary to me. Even though vaccinated are not actually protected, they are trying to make a case to lock down unvaccinated.

Who didn't see that coming?

 

[UsualName]

85% of 60+ cohort are vaccinated, 61% of total admissions of 60+ are vaccinated. That's where the numbers come from.

The link is the first URL in the original post.

Your summary reads quite scary to me. Even though vaccinated are not actually protected, they are trying to make a case to lock down unvaccinated.

Who didn't see that coming?

Your top line is wrong. 61% is for symptomatic infections, not (hospital) admissions. Go reread.

It’s an interesting study though. It is attempting to put a number on the percentage of unvaccinated transmissions, and is arguing the unvaccinated are responsible for the vast amount of transmission despite being the minority. This is in contrast to your hypothesis of vaccine ineffectiveness on the older.

Classic bang for your buck. If Germany wants to lower transmissions then this paper argues the best way is not to lock down the country but to just lock down the unvaccinated.

Is it a scary proposition, I guess it depends on what your interests are. If you’re a healthcare work or elderly, or immune compromised then it doesn’t seem so scary. If you’re unvaccinated then probably a little scary.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Your top line is wrong. 61% is for symptomatic infections, not (hospital) admissions. Go reread.

It’s an interesting study though. It is attempting to put a number on the percentage of unvaccinated transmissions, and is arguing the unvaccinated are responsible for the vast amount of transmission despite being the minority. This is in contrast to your hypothesis of vaccine ineffectiveness on the older.

Classic bang for your buck. If Germany wants to lower transmissions then this paper argues the best way is not to lock down the country but to just lock down the unvaccinated.

Is it a scary proposition, I guess it depends on what your interests are. If you’re a healthcare work or elderly, or immune compromised then it doesn’t seem so scary. If you’re unvaccinated then probably a little scary.

You are correct, it's even less intensive than hospital admissions or death. Basically the data admits the vaccines don't work. But most importantly, what are the deaths in the vaccinated? If there are very few deaths, then... does it really matter?

You of course know that many unvaccinated lie on the "classically liberal" side of the spectrum who would not be coerced into vaccination. So whether you may agree or not, this is a political segregation which was more or less exactly what everyone said would happen.

Can't know who is really your ally until they snitch on their blood family.

 

[UsualName]

You are correct, it's even less intensive than hospital admissions or death. Basically the data admits the vaccines don't work. But most importantly, what are the deaths in the vaccinated? If there are very few deaths, then... does it really matter?

You of course know that many unvaccinated lie on the "classically liberal" side of the spectrum who would not be coerced into vaccination. So whether you may agree or not, this is a political segregation which was more or less exactly what everyone said would happen.

Can't know who is really your ally until they snitch on their blood family.

Well no, the paper poses vaccines are highly effective. In fact it concludes the vaccinated make up extremely low amounts of transmission.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Well no, the paper poses vaccines are highly effective. In fact it concludes the vaccinated make up extremely low amounts of transmission.

Right, that is their conclusion but the data don't match. 61% of infections in the elderly are breakthrough even though 85% of them are vaccinated. They are saying that vaccinated don't transmit, but they are using models and assumptions to do that.

As far as I could tell, there was no controlled experiment to figure this out.

The only hard facts in that paper I could see is that the vaccines are a minor help for the elderly.