Is this auto trading system good enough for sale?

[logic_man]

Quote from nonlinear5:

Yes, everything else being equal, the system with 1000 trades will have the PI about 3 times higher than the system with 100 trades: sqrt(1000) / sqrt(100) ~ 3

That's built in the PI to reflect that higher number of trades gives higher statistical significance to the system performance. I am not a statistician, so I can't say if that sqrt(trades) term is too dominant. It seems to replicate the "standard error", which is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_error_(statistics)

The PI formula closely resembles Van Tharp's System Quality Number (SQN): http://www.ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=4320

I did see a reference somewhere about Van Tharp's recommendation to cap the sqrt(trades) term when the number of trades is too large.

I see your point about statistical significance and the number of trades, but I do think that Van Tharp's idea of cutting it off at some point makes sense. I personally do track this metric for my own trading, but just multiply ratio of average to std dev by 10 to get a number. As long as it's over 1.65, I'm relatively satisfied my results aren't due to chance.

I had a big go-around with some people here a few weeks ago on this metric after I suggested someone calculate it for their method to test statistical significance. Was even accused of being Van Tharp. I don't know that I'd go so far as to say it's better than any other metric, as I like profit factor and Kelly (in either the discrete or continuous formulations), although those don't do a good job of capturing the number of opportunities to trade, just how well each trade performs. Obviously, there is no perfect metric.

 

[rolextrader]

Quote from KingSalmon:

Collective 2 gives away your system to Collective 2 owners and site runners.

That is why that site was created in the first place, to find the big fish

True, the owners can use the system for free. If the OP's system is good enough for the owners to use it, then he should have many paid subscribers, too. There is no free lunch and the OP has few other options.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from rolextrader:

I suggest you offer it on Collective2. If you post three consecutive profitable months with similar stats, you'll get subscribers provided you don't charge more than 10% of the gross monthly profit. And you don't have to risk your capital to do it.

If the system blows up or fails to perform, you'll only be $78 out of pocket.

I didn't know about this service until now. I think I can live with the terms.

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from nonlinear5:

No, it's not the inverse of the SNR. The ratio of the mean to standard deviation is in both SNR and PI.

Read carefully what I wrote. PI is the inverse of the coefficient of variation. Obviously, you did not recognize these words and you thought I wrote it is the inverse of SNR.

Reading should preceed typing, don't you think?

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from rolextrader:

I suggest you offer it on Collective2. If you post three consecutive profitable months with similar stats, you'll get subscribers provided you don't charge more than 10% of the gross monthly profit. And you don't have to risk your capital to do it.

If the system blows up or fails to perform, you'll only be $78 out of pocket.

Not according to the terms and conditions I just read. If the system blows up, the customers of that service can request rebates for the fees paid and those are deducted from your cc. So you may end up paying a lot of money.

http://www.collective2.com/static/info/termsofservice.htm

"If the amount of refunds that we pay out on your behalf exceeds the fees that we collect on your behalf, we may at our discretion bill your credit card for the amount we are unable to debit from your Collective2 account in order to cover the cost of any refunds we have paid to your customers."

 

[nonlinear5]

Quote from intradaybill:

Read carefully what I wrote. PI is the inverse of the coefficient of variation. Obviously, you did not recognize these words and you thought I writo it is the inverse of SNR.

Reading should preceed typing, don't you think?

Read carefully what you wrote: "the well-known coefficient of variation in Statistics, which is also called the Signal to Noise Ratio".

The coefficient of variation is not called the Signal to Noise Ratio. In fact, coefficient of variation is the inverse of the SNR.

 

[Now is Now]

Quote from intradaybill:

Not according to the terms and conditions I just read. If the system blows up, the customers of that service can request rebates for the fees paid and those are deducted from your cc. So you may end up paying a lot of money.

http://www.collective2.com/static/info/termsofservice.htm

"If the amount of refunds that we pay out on your behalf exceeds the fees that we collect on your behalf, we may at our discretion bill your credit card for the amount we are unable to debit from your Collective2 account in order to cover the cost of any refunds we have paid to your customers."

And that is AFTER they have taken their 30% fee from the monthly lease fee....C2 is strictly for the benefit of C2.


Regardless how successful the system may be in the first month users can benefit by it and still demand a refund....and they get refunded no questions asked.

The net payout is after 60 days....there is no reason to use C2 other than for your own gratification of running a sim system.

No reason for the OP not to spend the 80 bucks ,but don't torment yourself dealing with C2 to lease your system....if the results are good...set up an account at Striker and you will get noticed.

NiN

 

[rolextrader]

Quote from intradaybill:

Not according to the terms and conditions I just read. If the system blows up, the customers of that service can request rebates for the fees paid and those are deducted from your cc. So you may end up paying a lot of money.

http://www.collective2.com/static/info/termsofservice.htm

"If the amount of refunds that we pay out on your behalf exceeds the fees that we collect on your behalf, we may at our discretion bill your credit card for the amount we are unable to debit from your Collective2 account in order to cover the cost of any refunds we have paid to your customers."

In that case, I would cancel the CC and let C2 swing in the wind.

 

[rolextrader]

Quote from Now is Now:

Regardless how successful the system may be in the first month users can benefit by it and still demand a refund....and they get refunded no questions asked.

That's ludicrous. You mean a subscriber can actually make money in a trading account and then ask C2 for a refund of the fee and get it with no questions asked?

That's like going to Bloomindales, buying a bedroom set, happily sleeping on it with no intent on returning it and then asking the issuing CC bank for a refund and getting it!

That redifines stealing.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Quote from rolextrader:

That's ludicrous. You mean a subscriber can actually make money in a trading account and then ask C2 for a refund of the fee and get it with no questions asked?

Perhaps that's why many subscriptions come with 30 days free trial.