Is this a selling gift S&P?

Quote from Cutten:

... The correct approach is "put on a position when there is a positive expectation and acceptable risk/reward. At all other times, have no position"

Most new traders dont get this idea: Every trade should have a management plan, an entry price threshold and an exit price threshhold. The management plan can change if market conditions change but there should be a maximum risk/reward ratio that at some point requires that you take a profit or a loss.
 
Quote from Virtuoso:

The enormous difference is in the "approach" and begins before the trade has even begun.

As an example we can take the recent action in the S&P.

Suppose you were flat during the entire slide from 1155 to 1120, but thought that there was a good chance that this move may prove to be the start of a meaningful change in trend and could possibly perpetuate much more selling in the weeks to come. Obviously you missed the most opportune time to initiate a short position, which would have been up at the highs, but this dosent mean that you have to sit on the sidelines for the whole move and play passive observer. So you now have a "bearish-stance" on the markets, but need a good spot to enter into a short position. You know that selling into weakness, especialy when the prevailing trend is up, would not be the best way to initiate the position, so you decide to wait for a retracement of the initial swing and enter against strength in the hopes that the selling will re-assert itself in the near future. But now you have another dilema -- you don't want to shoot your load to quickly and have to endure too much heat if there is a deeper retracement than you had assumed when you put out your position. So you decide that the best way to compensate for this possibility would be to break the position you want into 3-4 "lots". Fib ratios can work extremely well for this, you can simply set-up a grid off the 1155-1120 swing and plan to enter at the 38.2, 50 and 61.8 levels. If you are a shrewd trader you will have a "puke-spot" already in place and know exactly what your absolute risk is before you invest even 1$ in your "idea". So you plan to enter at each of the 38.2, 50 and 61.8 levels and puke all three should the market rise above the 78.6 level.

This is scaling into a position and like I said in my initial post there is an enormous difference between doing this and say putting out a short at the 38.2 and then adding additional risk on a whim in an attempt to lower your cost-basis. The difference is simply in the approach.

With all that said -- I also don't think there is anything wrong with a disciplined trader "adding to a loser" provided he knows his absolute risk and has a definate puke spot that he will adhere to no matter what.

Over the years I have found that with the exception of a few maxims most in the trading game are for the most part hollow.

Virtuoso

"Matters of great concern should be handled lightly...
Matters of small concern should be handled greatly..."
~Hagakure~


Thanks for taking the time to reply...

The key word in your reply is "whim". But had you said what you now said... I might not have debated it as much.

But what we WERE debating (socratically I might add) was why add to a position that is losing.... rather than adding on to a winner. And b.t.w. not every winner should be added on to either. In order to be in sync why would one want to add to a losing position unless as part of the plan they entered less than a full allotment in said initial position; AND thus it was part of the PLAN to add on if it immediately went against them.

But as I asked before... why??? Wherein has the risk reward become more fvorable by adding to a loser?! IMHO most add to loser to avoid a loss.

Of course like I said, time frame is a factor in these decisions.

ICe
:cool:
 
I think it is OK to add to a loser in some circumstances. Say you trade X amount of shares or lots, enter the market too early in hindsight because you are afraid of missing the move. Ex. 38% retracement . Then I would say it's OK to add the same amount at the 50% retracement if you have conviction in the trade. In my experience it's better to scale out of the second lot as soon as it is in the black and of course exit everything if it keeps moving adversely. Helps offset the loss on the first.
 
Quote from Kicking:

Helps offset the loss on the first.


:eek:
:eek:
:eek:
:eek:


I rest my "case" !!

why not just buy/sell another position(s) in a different equity or option, or another futures position in a different month for example to "help offset losses........"?

Huh?

Regards,


ICe
 
Quote from iceman1:

:eek:
:eek:
:eek:
:eek:


I rest my "case" !!

why not just buy/sell another position(s) in a different equity or option, or another futures position in a different month for example to "help offset losses........"?

Huh?

Regards,


ICe

You don't seem to have a "case". What you do seem to hold is the illusion of some existential truth that has more than likely come from your own sour experiences adding to losers. Couple that with your own susceptibility to regard the "wisdom" you read in trading books as absolute and you have a babbling moron who has had deluded himself into believing he knows something.

What you failed to realize was that a perpetual loser has no more business adding to a losing position than he did putting it on in the first place; for no matter what a losing trader does it will come out sour, because it is their job to lose. Period.

Congrats on becoming the very first ET member to reach the honorary Virtuoso ignore list -- you have surely earned your spot, not only for your non-sensical idiotic postings, but also for the extremely arrogant and borderline appalling manner in which you spout it.
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

I liquidated the additional positions that I added today for around a 6 point average loss. Still holding some position and will liquidate some more on Monday if we don't see more negative price action. Probably liquidate more on Tues. if same. Might consider getting bullish if the week turns out favorable next week. Let's see.

trade-ya1,

are you still short?

just curious...
 
Quote from Virtuoso:

The enormous difference is in the "approach" and begins before the trade has even begun.

As an example we can take the recent action in the S&P.

Suppose you were flat during the entire slide from 1155 to 1120, but thought that there was a good chance that this move may prove to be the start of a meaningful change in trend and could possibly perpetuate much more selling in the weeks to come.

Then why load up short on a hunch, regardless of approach? Trend changes evidence themselves in price action well after your example. You can eliminate a great deal of risk - while foregoing greater potential profit as well - by waiting for the new trend to emerge on the charts.

Intermediate trend changes are often presaged by weakening internals, weakening AD line, lower NH/NL ratios, well before price action. The internals did not weaken in the recent retracement.
 
Quote from slammajamma:

Then why load up short on a hunch, regardless of approach? Trend changes evidence themselves in price action well after your example. You can eliminate a great deal of risk - while foregoing greater potential profit as well - by waiting for the new trend to emerge on the charts.

Intermediate trend changes are often presaged by weakening internals, weakening AD line, lower NH/NL ratios, well before price action. The internals did not weaken in the recent retracement.

Slamma,

I simply took that time period as a quick example of how/why one might scale into a position vs. enter all at once.
 
Quote from waggie945:

AMG Data reports that another $3.76 billion dollars flowed into equity mutual funds the week ending Wednesday, Feb. 4th.

That's a tough act to FADE and so is this market, especially since the SMH has been selling off for 13 days straight until today.

Good Luck.
waggie,

Do you use this service? How do you like it? Are there other similar services, perhaps more complete (Hedge Fund inflows as well.)

nitro
 
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