Is This 2000 Redux? (In Miniature)

[Landis82]

Quote from polpolik:

Watching Kudlow, I'm getting a flashback of CNBC during the 1st quarter of year 2000...

He is a non-factor.

Has he ever been even slightly BEARISH for a day in his entire life?
I think not.

 

[Hydroblunt]

Quote from seasonedpro:

IMO with the prices of commodities (oil in particular) going through the roof, how can anyone possibly explain why inflation isn't taking off as well.

Cause you need to read the many many footnotes and amendments in CPI & PPI calculations.

As a contrast, you can also start keeping a tab on prices in ur local deli. If you happen to like Ben & Jerry's, you'll notice that the pint has went up in price right along with milk & sugar futures.

 

[xtrhvydty]

Yes, a 2 year view of the SPX shows elongated bottoms in APR, OCT 2005 whereas the recent JUN, JUL V-bottoms along with sharp rallies have a bearish footprint.

My only concern is how to play this 'transitionary' environment.

I was crunching out a variety of double diags, calendar, and B-fly spreads which are range plays but I just had a bad feeling about the speed of this week's rally, coupled with the potential for a sudden slide.

I kept my backmonth VIX options (Sept, Nov, Feb) as I suspect the fall will come quick and with little notice. I'm planning to go long ES if there is a consolidation/pullback and any resumption towards the long direction. This will place me in an ES/VIX hedge.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick run-up to 1320-1330 and a major spill on a negative catalyst.

I'm not trying to be the great predictor, just heeding the flashing lights.

Your thoughts?