Is there anything to stop a capitulation Tuesday?

womblevader · Jul 15, 2008

Looks pretty bad

1. Future are down across the board
DOW below 11,000
S&P has dipped below 1220

2. USD has dropped steadily since Monday market close.

3. There are supposedly a lot of stops to be triggered just below these levels.

On the positive side
1. It looks too easy
2. There will be a "lot" of short positions already.
3. No really bad news expected today [so far].
4. Markets don't always do what they are supposed to.
5. Gold is stable.

Does anyone know of anything that will prevent a meltdown tonight [besides PPT]?

Thanks in advance.

luckylee · Jul 15, 2008

Quote from womblevader:

Does anyone know of anything that will prevent a meltdown tonight [besides PPT]?

How about Paulson giving a speech saying "we believe in strong dollar?" again for the umpteenth time

atticus · Jul 15, 2008

When did futures trade under 1220.00?

jgold310 · Jul 15, 2008

I never saw the futures trading under 1220. The lowest I saw was about 1221

womblevader · Jul 15, 2008

My provider shows it under at 3:53GMT or 10:53EDT.

Globex has the SPu8 at 1220 exactly at the same time.

Cheers

rcj · Jul 15, 2008

20.25 = low, so far. at 21 right now.

womblevader · Jul 15, 2008

And again at 1:18....

ByLoSellHi · Jul 15, 2008

We need to move down to 9,625 on the Dow, 1985 on the Nasdaq and 1075 on the S&P to have a clean base.

Hopefully, by that time, all the weak financial actors will have been taken out, interest rate policy will be supportive of price stability and a strong USD, wage increases will at least match inflation, and much of the fear and panic that exists now about retirement savings, the stability of banks, clear governmental policies by whatever party and candidates will have been voted into office will emerge, the trend in employment will be up, and a bottom in housing values will be in.

makloda · Jul 15, 2008

Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Hopefully, by that time, [...] the trend in employment will be up, and a bottom in housing values will be in.

I agree many of those factors would help, but it would be the first time in history for the market to wait for unemployment and home prices to turn positive before finding a bottom.

ByLoSellHi · Jul 15, 2008

Quote from makloda:

I agree many of those factors would help, but it would be the first time in history for the market to wait for unemployment and home prices to turn positive before finding a bottom.

True. 'Equity markets are forward discounting mechanisms.'

Cliche, but true.