There are many many ways I would trade this PA. Here are a few. Many others but chart is getting marked up too much.
A few general ideas:
1)A range can be called a range once sideways motion for 15 to 20 bars.
2)When PA is in a range divide the range into 1/3’s.
3) if a broad range such as this one then I look to go long and short. Start going long in bottom 1/3 and adding as it continues down in an attempt to BO south of the range. Odds are 80% the BO will fail (good odds!). So as I am averaging down I am simply betting the BO south will fail and I will be loaded up for a 50% retracement or even a move to top of the range (ways to distinguish which is likely). I reverse the concepts for everything for shorting at top.
4) 50% retracement (not a fib and thats not a fib lol) is important gauge. For covering shorts as price pulls back..exiting..longs as price retraces...and for initiating new entries counter to the retracements. Remember this in ranges and channels. Especially channels. You get the idea. Channel is nothing but a range tilted with skewed pressures. Ranges bull and bear pressures about equal. If bear channel watch for 50% retracements to short. If bull channel 50% to go long. I like to divide the channel into into 1/3’s. in bear channels I like shorting when price retraces into middle to top 1/3. Start shorting at 50% retracement (price in at least middle 1/3) and add as it continues up into top third betting any BO of top will fail within 5 bars. In bear channels 75% chance it will fail and price goes back into channel. But bear channels are also bull flags on larger TF and odds favor that when a BO does occur it will be north....so heads up. In bull chances 75% Bo out of bottom fails. But bull channels are also bear flags in larger TF and odds eventually favor a BO south.
5) if a retraces after leg 1 is made and the retracement is less than 50% I look for another (second leg) in the original direction and view the retracement as a pb flag (only in broad ranges). Tight ranges too small for multiple legs.
Note: last trades ...far right of chart ..averaging down and loaded for ride up to middle of range 50% to exit or scale out some and leave rest if price continues to top of range. I do not know what happended after far right of chart but suspect we got at least a 50% retracement to exit longs or part and possibly holdthe rest for second leg up. But if price doesn’t make it to 50% retracement i exit long on any profit because tight bear channel (within the range) to the immediate left inthe chart.
6) sooner or later a BO north or south will succeed. If I am caught on wrong side of the market when that hapoens and I am loaded up from averaging down then when that happens the best thing to do is exit then I double up position size in the BO direction. Travels 1/2 distance and I am out at BE or hold for more.
7) i can load up shorting on top side too when prive in top 1/3 and poking out of top of range. I would be just betting with 80% chance (high odds) any BO out of top of range will fail within 5 bars.
Many more ways to trade this but these are a few. Good luck. Think about the concepts. Hindsight... i know ...but they can be tested forward. If you don’t like the ideas ignore them.
Finally, trading is about putting probabilities in my favor. Here are the probabilities in ranges. I can exploit them. Of course, this is a large broad range with 120 min but the concepts hold true in any TF chart.
Disclaimer: Not trading advice. Only for educational purposes and sharing of some ideas. Just something to get the noodle to working as you pass the day.
