Is thee in deep depression?
- Thread starter NoMoreOptions
- Start date
You don't know who is thee here, do you? If so, got hell out of here it is an economic forum not a stupid trading gamblers house.
well, in light of this...should this thread be moved to the psychology forum?
Michael B.
Michael B.
LOL ER! This had me in stitches man!
OK, for starters, I think the Chicago boys you were talking to must have either:
1) Had no bloody idea
2) Been bitten by the DAX
3) Been just plain lying
Not only that, but I happen to've heard about a lot of Chicago boys doing multiple M$ a year(!) scalping the DAX, from a few sources. AFAIK this doesn't happen much anymore on other indices, I haven't heard about any decent ES scalpers for a while. I think an example here on DAX would be velocity_trader, who averages, what? E4 per contract and does 20,000 contracts/month? And even he says "he knows traders who make a lot more than him".
I don't trade as much as him or any of them, I don't scalp as short-term targets as them, and I don't make as much money as any of them. But I do realize that on an index with the volatility of DAX, it is very doable.
To be quite honest, I think when it comes to trading opportunity, whether it's short-term, or nice trends, DAX quite simply $hits over any other futures index out there nowadays (other than maybe HSI in Hong Kong if you're willing to trade it).
DAX has a huge intraday range, decent liquidity, awesome volatility, beautifully large moves and nicely sustained trends. ES, NQ etc has none of this. Trading DAX is almost like trading ES was 2 years ago.
FYI, the "opportunity" of profit capturing in day trading is measured in daily range. The larger the daily range, the larger the chunk you can realistically expect to capture. You obviously can't squeeze blood out of a stone. Now, you currently have a D ATR (daily range) on ES of a whopping 11pts. On DAX, you have 54pts. You have 108T versus 44T, and 108 X E 12.5 = E 1,350 ~ US$ 1,650 daily range on DAX versus 44 X $12.5 = US$ 550 on ES. So, the raw intraday dollar volatility of DAX over ES is ~3:1.
Which one would you, as a competent trader, rather trade? I have no further questions.
As for BUND, BOBL etc - Well, I don't really like these, too slow, but, they're actually not much different from ES or NQ these days, and they're very liquid. However, if you want to do decent size (100 cars+) then I think ES, NQ, BUND, BOBL are just fine (only choice) indices to trade. Though I think a difference is that BUND / BOBL have much nicer and more sustained trends in comparison to the choppy ES & NQ, similarly to DAX. All that said, the fact alone that your Michigan Ave boys compared DAX to BUND or BOBL, actually witnesses their ignorance / incompetence. They are neither related nor in any way similar in liquidity, volatility or behaviour.
I suggest best is to subscribe to DAX feed and just try it yourself. Don't take my word for it...
Hey, just recently checked on Soniquarium.com, love the new look & feel, hell graphics! You gotta get the site going though man! You're into Indie? I picked up this triple-album by a Canadian indie band called "The Magnetic Fields". Quite hilarious, ever heard of them?
Have a nice one bro,
Scientist
Scientist , Hang tough I feel your anguish I had a lousy day on Friday as well (Worst in months too).
This forum is all about support, so just ignore the fools on here that don't understand this.
I commend you for your courage in exposing your failure to the room. It takes a big man to admit he is imperfect and I think that it is important that we all admit our short comings in here for 2 reasons.
1. So others can learn that they are not alone and how TOUGH this business really is
and
2. So that we can get feedback from the more experienced traders than us (even though we sometimes think we know it all there is always someone better).
Share and grow....
This forum is all about support, so just ignore the fools on here that don't understand this.
I commend you for your courage in exposing your failure to the room. It takes a big man to admit he is imperfect and I think that it is important that we all admit our short comings in here for 2 reasons.
1. So others can learn that they are not alone and how TOUGH this business really is
and
2. So that we can get feedback from the more experienced traders than us (even though we sometimes think we know it all there is always someone better).
Share and grow....
Thanks a lot, Samson!*
One of the smartest things I've read in a while! How very true, being honest with others (and even more so with yourself) is the most important thing of all. If you fail to do so / cheat, the markets (or your brokerage statements for that matter) are a great place to find out exactly why this so important.
1. The chatroom experience was and is great, it has almost replaced ET for me (that's why I wasn't here for weeks). However, I think now it was a good thing that I had such a losing day, because it gave people in my room a bit of a long-overdue rattle, with everybody in the room constantly saying "Scientist, I rarely ever see you lose", "you have like a 90% hit rate", "you make over 20pts every day", "you always make 10pts and only ever lose 2" and all that stuff (all rather inaccurate glorifications btw!).
It was about time for a bit of a reality check. The markets just don't think that way. I have now done years of homework, I still work 3-5h a day outside market hours just to do analysis, refine approaches and do statistical analyses of almost any occurance or pattern in the market. I know hundreds of probabilities in different timeframes inside out. Yes, I have a high hit rate, however, despite contrary impression, I never have any idea where the market will go, and if I do, I usually end up losing. My hit rate is good, my stops are small, my targets large, that's all that counts.
However, I believe if I put the work in, I can outperform others, consistently. The more work you do, the better you'll be. There's no doubt about this, and no luck, it's like playing pro Poker or even Baccarat. You look like a genius, but it's really just hard work. People always forget the work, and glorify the gains.
2. Feedback: Precisely! And what an important point, of course there is always someone better! I believe that in trading, you'll always take the money off those not as good as you, and have your money taken by those better than you. The higher you climb, the more you'll take. IMO it's those days that don't go that well that you can really learn why. You study who were the people (approaches) that took the money off you, and have an immense learning opportunity to add armor, weapons, strategies and tactics to your arsenal.
That said, the day after my large losing day, Friday, I talked to my best trading friend in the room (who wasn't present the day before) and told me he lost boat-loads that day, too, despite trading completely different to my style. It's amazing how we're all connected through our reactions to the unexpected.
Unlike me, he wasn't even shaken (DAX scalper for 3+ years), and the next day, while I was still hesitant and out of the zone, he made a total killing, posted live in the room. This, to me, is the true power of spirit. It's not the market. It's 99% between your ears. Well, may you have a great week to come!
Best Regards,
Scientist
*Notice how the only people on this thread, or the whole of ET for that matter, who manage to type up something intelligent and enabling are those who've been in this business for a couple of decades (ex. on this thread; saxon, Samson77), while the others can only bring up negativity? I find it extremely enabling, because it's such a clear proof that there is no substitute for positive attitude, experience and perseverance...
Quote from Scientist:
NoMoreOptions, how are you going these days?
As to your question - Is thee? That's a very well-timed question indeed. Well I sure am, or was at least till yesterday...
Yesterday, DAX, had my first notable losing day in 3 months, and largest losing day in my career EVER! No matter how many trades taken (sitting persistently through the drawdown, expecting a soon coming recovery and end of bad streak), it just didn't work out.
I had a hit rate of just below 30% (usually over 70-80%), and pulled the "emergency brake" daily game over limit at EUR -3,500. I'd never imagined I'd even get that far. Mind you, about 1/3 through, I took off 1/2 size, then 1/2 again, then down to 1 contract, still lost. Otherwise, would've been down over 6K.
This was witnessed by people in our chat room who witnessed me do 15-40pts per day on DAX for the past 3 weeks (ever since we opened the room), calling all trades live at or way before the fact, and with large targets (not tick scalping). None could quite believe it. Since the room was small yesterday, I hope (am pretty sure) nobody followed my calls, or whoever did would have received an a$$-whoopin' at least as bad as mine.
The best irony is still to come: This morning, I backtested my approach (yesterday's calls) and realized if I had done the EXACT OPPOSITE of what I did yesterday and what I usually do, and with the SAME large targets (5pts+), I would have ended the day over 5K+ (I won't be specific). Now... Whoopee! It was a breakout day eating through volume all day, zipping up & down, and fades just didn't work.
Yet, there was an invaluably great lesson learnt from this: Sometimes, doing the exact opposite of what you usually do is the right thing to do. The whole art is in knowing exactly when this is the case, having enough flexibility not to be bent out of shape.
Well, am I depressed? Hmm. Well, I sure as hell was yesterday! Imagine to think all your approaches have failed and the market changed by 180 degrees! But No, today's a new day, and I'm starting this day positive, with careful size, getting back into the groove with confidence.
Learn the lessons, but don't let them break you. Your confidence and faith in your abilities is all you have as a trader.
Now, is the economy depressed? Don't know. It's all a matter of perspective, isn't it? Surely not for the wealthy people.
Sincerely,
A Rarely Humbled Scientist.
What you are refering to is the Costanza method, named appropriately after the very funny Seinfeld episode in which George had incredible success doing the exact opposite of what he thought was right. Many try few ever come close to mastering.
My apology if I sounded rude. But I still think this is not about one's trading or attitude (especially not mine). My intention to start this topic is all about the macro environment of this very special time that we are through. I am through. Are you?