Is the US really a time bomb waiting to happen?

LS1Z28 said:
The U.S. has never gone longer than 10 years between recessions, and the last recession ended in June of 2009. If Trump makes it to the end of his first term without a recession, it will be a significant accomplishment. If he makes it to the end of his second term, it will be an incredible accomplishment.

Good luck with your trade. I hope it turns around for you. :thumbsup:
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this type of argument can sound rather convincing, but is actually a statistical fallacy.. economic conditions have changed so much... technological advancement also..
Nine_Ender said:
Trump has a history of having short term business "successes" involving a lot of new debt that in more cases then is healthy go belly up. He then wipes his hands from the project, using his lawyers if needed, assuming no moral or ethical responsibility for what he's done. Americans risk a similar result with how their country is being run.
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short term? guy succeeded in biz, entertainment and politics... a rare genius.

'belly up' and 'wipe hands' is just his political enemies and the fake news putting a spin on the situations. - this is the nature of the real estate business... you have hundreds of properties in the entire portfolio, each of them is a separate entity to isolate financial/legal liabilities.... so how many 'bankruptcies'... 4? 5? out of hundreds is actually very good considering the size of the portfolio. Many of these properties were bot in distress so of course some wouldn't work out... just a numbers game... and 'wipe hands' clean is exactly what the bankruptcy law is all about, a legal entity can get debt relief... it's just biz savvy to play the game by the rules... every contractor, entering a real estate contract, knows the risk that the counter party may not be able to pay at the end, it's just the nature of the business. I own a consulting biz and it's the same, there is always the counter party risk, so you just have to factor this into your pricing...so please don't take the moral high ground (which is really all the dems have left at this point as they have no fresh ideas). business is business... just so happens that the real estate business is unique in that the owner likely has hundreds of separate businesses and Trump just happens to be the biggest landlord in America. Other billionaires do not have this 'feature' lol... in any other biz line the billionaire owner is likely to have only a handful of separate entities. I may even let you take the moral high ground by asking this question - are you saying Trump is biz savvy and immoral? I'd rather have a biz savvy as my president to navigate the world economical/political jungle, than a community organizer..

why are we all here trading? every dollar you win, is a dollar someone loses... someone who now may not be able to put food on the table for his children... are we all immoral here? biz is biz, no need for crocodile tears lol.
 
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dozu888 said:
no need to prove it.. if you look at my post history you'd know I have been all in since years ago, plus I have a cash rich biz from which I throw all the proceeds into QQQ, for years.. the math is easy.
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might I ask the nature of your business?
 
Overnight said:
Can you explain why that is, and why we cannot go more than 10 years between recessions?

Because it sure as hell seems you are implying, like many others, that we must now have a recession. I want to know why it must be that way.
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I can't really explain why we've never gone more than a decade between recessions. My best guess is that it's natural economic ebb & flow combined with circumstance.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." I've always liked this quote from Mark Twain. I've always believed you should be slow to believe someone when they say "This time it's different." It's definitely possible to go longer than a decade between recessions, but history would teach us that it isn't probably.

The next few years should be really interesting. Europe has been showing signs of an economic slowdown. There are reports that Germany may go into a recession before the end of the year. China's GDP last year was the lowest they've had in 28 years. The warning signs are there. I'm just glad that our economy is still relatively strong.

I'm definitely not an economist, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
 
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