Is the trend really your friend?

Quote from Remiraz:

yeah the indexes have been stuck since the dot com bubble.
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stuck???

I don't know what charts you are looking at

practically all the indexes have been in a major uptrend since beginning of 2004. Before that they were in a major downtrend.

just pull up any weekly chart, doesn't get much clearer than that
 
Quote from Remiraz:

The be all end all thread on whether the Trend is friend or foe.

It has become a sort of often spoken "fact" that "The Trend Is Your Friend". I wonder, does this belief have any prove behind it?

"Trade with the trend" or "The trend is your friend". These statements imply:

1) Entering short term trades in the direction of the longer term trend has positive expectancy.

2) Enter trades in the current direction of the trend on the same timeframe has positive expectancy.

Is this all there is to discretionary trading? Sit on our asses all day long and wait for a trend then try to enter in that direction? Or check the "long term trend" and enter all trades in their drection?

Sound to easy to be true. Anyone? :D
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Legend says that if you catch a leprecaun, he must give you his treasure. Common sense says that if you catch a trend, you'll make money. But you can't even get people here to agree on what a trend is, much less how to go about catching one. Long-term trends, however you chose define them, are becoming as rare as leprecauns. So it may be a moot question as to exactly how you define a trend and subsequently catch one.

These trend threads are starting to look like arguments over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. :p
 
Quote from Remiraz:

lol all the responses here makes me wonder if our current trading "truths" were typed out by monkeys. :D
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and how is your trading going?
 
There are 3 types of trends; up, down, and lateral. Decipher which one the market is in and trade accordingly.

Buy on dips in up trends, short on rallys in downtrends and sit out at first during lateral. Most traders lose their shorts during lateral trends. My level of trading is only in one direction during lateral trends. Otherss, are able to trade both directions during lateral trends and really clean up.

The Daily INDU has been in an up trend/lateral leg since 7-8. 8-5 marks a change in trend for me. These longer trends then ripple on through the faster timeframe trends.

This will probably not help anyone since you guys are talking about angels, leprauchauns, pins, and ivyleaguers and all the other nonpertinent stuff to trading and its corresponding trends.
 
Quote from mogul:

stuck???

I don't know what charts you are looking at

practically all the indexes have been in a major uptrend since beginning of 2004. Before that they were in a major downtrend.

just pull up any weekly chart, doesn't get much clearer than that
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Here is the SP500 since Jan 2004, looks sideways to me
 

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Quote from Dantheman:

remiraz, when you state that you essentially don't think trend following is worth it...or that it's 'that' good

do you realize you STOP your own thought process?

instead of saying, 'this is bunk, it doesn't work'

you might do better to say, 'i don't understand it, but it might work...now how can *I* make it work'.

since YOU have stopped the discovery thought process in your own mind by having the belief that 'it doesn't work', you are simply posting here to bolster your own internal belief that you are quite unsure of.

if you had exhausted all possibilities of trying to 'find out how to make it work'....and STILL couldn't....you would more peacefully be able to put the issue to rest in your own mind and have no need for a thread such as this.

...of course trend following works, as does virtually every other form of trading given the proper RvR, trade manegment, money management etc. Now, if you held THIS belief that I just stated....that would lead you to a path of discovery and abundance, rather than to a deserted plain of aimless wandering.

in short, change the thoughts that change the attitude that change the action that lead to discovery.
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agreed.

Sherlock

:cool:
 
Quote from Rickshaw Man:



For the past 9 years the Dow has been moving sideways in a 52% range
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Guy,

When something is constantly making new highs, as your chart shows before 2001, it can hardly be said to be trading in a range.

5yr
 
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