Is the rally for REAL this time, or do we retest/break the lows?

[MKTrader]

Well, no, not really. The data shows otherwise (see previous post with link). Redemptions have been huge, so the panicky 401K type investors and casual retail traders are already gone. And for the record, there's only one permabull on this thread, and no one is taking him seriously. You need to ignore the permabears, too--especially those that can't distinguish between economic and stock market performance.

Quote from hottpotat0:

ahhhhh grasshopper you have good view of reality and mkt psycology-you make sense-perma bulls will not like your sense to them it is non-sence...but for some it is real cents has value of gold

 

[NeoRio1]

There might be a weekly swing down but you won't see anything go as low as it did.

 

[stock_trad3r]

The huge 10% rally on Tuesday held all its gains and then the market added another 300 points.
Funds are coming to the realization that maybe things aren't so bad and there are no more shoes to drop.

 

[Bear Plunger]

Quote from MKTrader:

Well, no, not really. The data shows otherwise (see previous post with link). Redemptions have been huge, so the panicky 401K type investors and casual retail traders are already gone. And for the record, there's only one permabull on this thread, and no one is taking him seriously. You need to ignore the permabears, too--especially those that can't distinguish between economic and stock market performance.

Are you sure it was the 401K type people? I thought the redemptions were from Hedge Funds...of who were overly-long the commodities for the past few years.

Think about it - regular baby boomer soon to be pensioner types haven't received their OCT statements yet. Weren't they still holding on in SEPT?

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from Bear Plunger:


Think about it - regular baby boomer soon to be pensioner types haven't received their OCT statements yet. Weren't they still holding on in SEPT?

They still follow the market. If they sold on fear they would have done so already.

 

[tdatspectral]

First off, I'm a newbie but I prefer to be called a "bewbie".

The last few days caught me off guard and I've not had as good a week as I could have, getting out WAY too early. Thu and Fri smelled of retail action IMO. We know funds were selling as late as Wed/Thu. Are they really jumping in soooo fast? I think not.

 

[MKTrader]

See here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ami_XEftEtKw&refer=home

The article and stats are all about stock mutual funds--Legg Mason and Fidelity were both mentioned. Hedge fund redemptions are up, too, which makes the "mass redemptions = bottom is here or near" argument even stronger.

Quote from Bear Plunger:

Are you sure it was the 401K type people? I thought the redemptions were from Hedge Funds...of who were overly-long the commodities for the past few years.

Think about it - regular baby boomer soon to be pensioner types haven't received their OCT statements yet. Weren't they still holding on in SEPT?

 

[MKTrader]

A newbie who can "smell" the difference between retail traders vs. smart money? Must be a gift!

See above post for actual data on retail traders.

Quote from tdatspectral:

First off, I'm a newbie but I prefer to be called a "bewbie".

The last few days caught me off guard and I've not had as good a week as I could have, getting out WAY too early. Thu and Fri smelled of retail action IMO. We know funds were selling as late as Wed/Thu. Are they really jumping in soooo fast? I think not.

 

[Mav88]

"They still follow the market. If they sold on fear they would have done so already."

October was sort of fast for these people, now that they have time to refelect upon their situation I believe that if we start to slip again, the rest will have have made up their minds to sell this time.