Is the rally for REAL this time, or do we retest/break the lows?

[shortie]

Quote from MKTrader:

Forget "fade the rally" or "fade the dip," just fade the poll!

The second and third responses aren't materially different, BTW.

i agree, the poll is terribly designed.

we are going up for 1-2 months before a re-test IMHO.

 

[intradaybill]

Before this market makes new lows it will provide a strong but of course false sense to the general public that the bear market is over. This will create more upward momentum and a good opportunity for many funds that lost money to recover some $$$$$ at the expense of the uninformed investor. Then magically the bad news will hit the market again and the new lows will come at the expense of the individual investor this time around rather than the funds. This will be repeated a couple more times until the big funds have recovered a good fraction of their losses.

Then, when individual investors give up, close their accounts and convince themselves to never again deal with the market, prices will go on a slow, yet steady upward trend towards new all time highs.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

new bull market. I need not repeat why.

==================
Well Warren Buffet is bullish [on some stocks];
actually i like doing business with Wells Fargo Bank,
not that they substitute for a good local bank.

As far as probabilities go, I like a good bull market in agriculture;
even though looks like some -strong ones like IBD's favorites MOS,POT are still in bear markets. Even Gov Sara Palin sued the feds over interfering with Polar Bears.......

As far as SPY,QQQQ, well true, the rally lasted longer than other bear rallys this month, nor is is the first time we saw some stocks bullish end of month.[Partial disclosure, i like wild caught Alaskan salmon, bought , Alaskan wild caught salmon]

But even if the very, very low probability of a bear market ending this month[and probably the Bear is still a trend friend];
the market still could do the higher probability & take out the lows several times,maybe finish next year [2009]up. Not a prediction.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Boo hoo hoo stocks up again? This mental recesison is so painful. make it stop. The upside is almost unlimited at this point.

It will continue that way for the next 15 months. Dow 14,000 soon. Buy goog aapl ma bidu v pot mos ewz isrg

 

[MKTrader]

I doubt anyone keeps track of these polls, but my guess is that ET is just as much a "dumb money" sentiment indicator as newsletter writers, AAII or the general public. There's definitely a lot of herding and groupthink here.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from MKTrader:

I doubt anyone keeps track of these polls, but my guess is that ET is just as much a "dumb money" sentiment indicator as newsletter writers, AAII or the general public. There's definitely a lot of herding and groupthink here.

They will all lose

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from shortie:

i agree, the poll is .......

we are going up for 1-2 months before a re-test IMHO.

================
Certainly could go up for 1 month;
bear markets/bear rallys have done that many times.

Could just as easily go up 1-2 days;
& then make yearly lows, lower lows, lower highs, lower closes.

Didn't vote in that poll because words are much more precise than polls or market supoport/resistance;
good question, original poster.

 

[lpchad]

Quote from intradaybill:

Before this market makes new lows it will provide a strong but of course false sense to the general public that the bear market is over. This will create more upward momentum and a good opportunity for many funds that lost money to recover some $$$$$ at the expense of the uninformed investor. Then magically the bad news will hit the market again and the new lows will come at the expense of the individual investor this time around rather than the funds. This will be repeated a couple more times until the big funds have recovered a good fraction of their losses.

Then, when individual investors give up, close their accounts and convince themselves to never again deal with the market, prices will go on a slow, yet steady upward trend towards new all time highs.

Spot on, couldn't have said it better myself

 

[stock_trad3r]

The major indexes must obey the symetrical selling law if volume remains nearly constant

 

[Bear Plunger]

Quote from intradaybill:

Before this market makes new lows it will provide a strong but of course false sense to the general public that the bear market is over. This will create more upward momentum and a good opportunity for many funds that lost money to recover some $$$$$ at the expense of the uninformed investor. Then magically the bad news will hit the market again and the new lows will come at the expense of the individual investor this time around rather than the funds. This will be repeated a couple more times until the big funds have recovered a good fraction of their losses.

Then, when individual investors give up, close their accounts and convince themselves to never again deal with the market, prices will go on a slow, yet steady upward trend towards new all time highs.

Interesting analysis. This sign of main streeting getting out hasn't really happened yet, I agree with you. I think until, we need to see signs of that at least. It's not likely the public is going to get off that easy.

So far Hedge Funds first....the Mutual Funds...although alot of mutual funds may not sell completely out - can someone explain how the mutual funds are run? Aren't they more of a buy & hold strategy - being fully invested at all times...is the Mutual Fund manager allowed to speculate (trade)?