Is the rally for REAL this time, or do we retest/break the lows?

Place your vote and give your reason(s).

  • For real - new Bull Market

    Votes: 22 15.2%

  • Fade the rally - we are going lower

    Votes: 54 37.2%

  • We haven't seen this Bear Market lows

    Votes: 49 33.8%

  • I don't care - I'm a day-trader.

    Votes: 20 13.8%
  • Total voters
    145
  • Poll closed .
IMO, we have only seen the initial fear selloff. The poor economics of the next 2 years will hit companies fundamentals', causing a much larger selloff based on revised valuations.

I just hope we maintain this volatility. It's fantastic for day trading!
 
Quote from mister_doodi:

It's a sucker rally, people are so eager to get into this market and not miss the bottom that any small good news pushes the market up and ignoring any bad news.
More...

Perhaps, but at a certain point, this becomes a self-fufilling prophecy.
 
We are not going to see dow 14,000 in 15 month just as we did not see dow beating or closing near its previous high within months of its 1999 peak(I think DOW peaked in 99 and Nasdaq in 2000).

There are many reasons we won't see dow 14,000 for years. Not the last of which momentum is not going to be there. Many hedge funds got wiped out and liquidity got taken out. You can't fake excitement it needs to build gradually. Economically speaking there is nothing to be excited about right now. Yes oil is down to saner levels from its highs but is by no means dirt cheap.

Dow had no business setting any records. In fact, I believe as long as "W" is president dow has no right to be above 10,000.
 
My system says stay short, lower to go. Beside that, the damage that's been done is going to take years to repair.
 
One telling sign is for emerging leaders to break out of sound bases. Who or what will be our new leading stocks is not now clear, as many have yet to form a base from their corrections.

Much technical disarray is rampant among stocks.

:)
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Dow 14,000 within 15 months
More...

Will you really go away and stick to World of Warcraft if you're wrong this time?

(Unlike your last broken promise)
 
I'm not expecting a textbook V-shaped recovery and certainly not Dow 14K in 15 months (that would be an unprecedented move for the Dow, BTW).

On the other hand, too many people are expecting lower lows and a retest that exceeds or comes very close to the 2002 lows. The more I hear this, the more I think it won't happen. Plus, the time/price symmetry stuff on Oct 9-10 is interesting:

Oct 10, 2002: 5-year low that's now an 11-year bottom

Oct. 9, 2007: all-time high

Oct, 10, 2008: 5-year low. Still holding as the low for Dow and S&P cash markets, despite incredible volatility for the last 3 weeks.

I'm not going to fall on my sword over any of this, but I don't mind being a contrarian. Plus, the best bet is to fade the masses/polls here at ET most of the time. :p
 
suckers rally-too many people still want to make $$$$$$ not enough fear yet-its bruised and bloodied knees-missing teeth-concussion-but not in ICU yet-if this is the bottom then-wow the fed and govt are really powerful and have done their job-too bad cause stocks are stll expensive-should be in the single digits as far as P.E.'s go
 
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