Is the Rally almost over??

Quote from garbo:

This is what has been driving this rally all along: Traders getting short in anticipation of the plunge (à la 2002).

Then some buying interest comes in, and every short gets stopped out.
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I disagree.. this rally has more to it than short covering... thats what people think but it really has more to do with ending the war.. and hopefully the economy rebounding...

Shorts covering does not cause stocks to rally for multi months.... short covering is those huge pops you see on a chart.. not nice sustained uptrends.. such as Ebay...
 
In the past 4 days ES has made 4 slightly higher highs, reversing hard each time. Yet the buyers keep coming back...
 
Mike,

Yeah I agree completely. Listen, we were there on that EBAY thread, and I posted when it was basing in a tight range. I was alarmed by the number of top pickers on the thread and simply said listen, wait for the market to tip its hand. It blasted through resistance shortly after to close around 93 0r 94. Today it's at 99 and moving on to 100.

One can't predict. Only react and hope that your odds are correct.

Mav.
 
Quote from dotslashfuture:

sit on your hands, you are just getting trigger happy and paying too much attention to the news. There is absolutely no sell signal yet.
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I dont really follow news ever.. just look at the charts...

Take a look at S, KSS, GNTX, GM, EXPD, WSM, SUP
 
Another.. great tool I use to gauge market strength is to look at what the market leaders are doing... I run a scan and look for all the stocks that made the greatest moves since the beginning of the rally... If there trendlines start to break espececially on high volume.. then I know the market is ready to turn.. this works better than any indicator...

For now... look at EBAY, HITK, COH, YHOO, AMZN, GRMN, MVL, SOHU, ASKJ.. there are many others...
 
just wait for a trendline break...
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There has been a trendline break. It's my signal to get short.

I never said that I'll be short for the next few weeks, it's just a short term scalp, but it could turn into a multi-day move. I can't tell yet. I do know that there are opportunities to make money by getting short, even in a market that is in an uptrend. :cool:
 
I am primarily a swing trader.. so my comments are in the context of days to weeks...

Look at my chart of the nasdaq on the first post.. I dont see a trendline break yet??
 
The trendline that I'm talking about is on an intraday chart. The ES broke the trendline at 944, where I got short. I've covered that short already at 941 and 942.

Seen on the 2 min charts. Trendline started yesterday afternoon and extends into this morning's opening range. The ES market took out yesterday' high within the first fifteen minutes, at that point I drew my trendline. It was subsequently broken soon after.
 
If you have been profiting from shorts for the past two years, I submit that you might want to start reconsidering your short strategies. IMHO, there is a lot of new found support out there for any sign of weakness, and pullbacks are short lived. The key sign of a new bull market.

Just my two cents.
 
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