Is the July rally getting exhausted or consolidating for the next run up?

Is the July rally getting exhausted or consolidating for the next run up?

  • We're Topping. 1240 SPX is the Max before a quick, hard flush

    Votes: 13 32.5%

  • I don't see a meanigfull concession yet: We could see 1260 by next week

    Votes: 27 67.5%
  • Total voters
    40
  • Poll closed .
Quote from protrader-2K5:

I think this hard rally has been considerably magnified by the london bombings.

I really think we would have made one faint hearted run at 1225 and then turned down after earnings.

However what has happened is pretty unique. Immediatly following the bombings we saw a huge influx of overseas capital.

Meaning the US stock market was the 'flight to quality' alternative to most other markets.

If you needed better returns than bonds... the US markets were/are the best place to park it.

Now fast forward 3 to 6 weeks and we could very well see a outflow of that money... coupled with higher energy prices and continual lay offs in the US could lead to a substantial drop off from these levels.

The lay offs in the US market is the 'silent killer' in my humble opinon. One of these days the markets's gonna wake up and realize that a shrinking workforce is bad news for a BOOMING housing market especially those who have gone out and borrowed against their infalated home prices... suddenly they are out of a job... the borrown more... but still no job... oh man

this is my take, God know if or when it play out this way!
More...


Equities in Europe have been stronger than the U.S. on this run up.
 
In another posting at 3:17 today, I mentioned that I feel market has got exhausted and it is a good time to short that some people disagreed or asked the reasons. I gave out a list of the reasons but my main reason is my experience. I know that many of you guys have more experience than I do or are more successful than me but I also have seen some bloody situations in the market that 20% drop in a stock price is too normal to me. I have seen Bre-X Mineral and have been hurt by it. My money was evaporated in 24 hours. From $18 per share to 5 cents. It was halted more than 48 hours. This story goes back to around 1998 I think. That experience along with some others have given me vision and made me a successful trader thereafter. Now based on that background:
I see blood in TXN report that everyone is cheering and its price surged today to 32.40. Read their result carefully, Their revenue is down and they came with better than expected result by cutting their costs. You can not cut the cost for ever. It will hit your growth. They compare their current Q's OK performance to their last year's miserable performance. They compare gray to black and you see gray is shining. Many companies are like TXN.
High oil price is kicking in. job cuts, .....Terrorist attacks are doing reverse effect to the market. Investors are buying stocks to get that quick profit and ignoring those attacks damages.
 
It's a bull market guys!

Which i could find back my predictions from last december. Still hold, we'll hit all-time high for the DOW and S&P.

People are finally upgrading their old Celeron 300A computers :) The computer market is starting a new trend that was long overdue.

Going all-in!

Besides the economy is strong. Don't be impressed by the job losses you hear about on tv, it's the new created jobs numbers that nobody talks about that are interesting.
 
Funny.

What does usualy happen when a bull market kicks off? It's the institutional money that massivly buys right? They buy from somebody, so it's the small traders, the crowd, that sells right? If the crowd chose to sell, that's because they are bearish right?

Well everybody on this tread is bearish! You got your answer there: bull market!
 
yea... lose 80,000 jobs with an avg pay of $20 an hour...

replace it with 120,000 new job with an avg pay of $12 hr... no benefits

it is intresting...
 
To Maxprofit?
Why you say that institutional are buying? Lets just assume that they do. Why do you think that they are the wisdom of the market and regular investors are dumb ass? 85% of the mutual funds underperforming the index.
 
I agree with protrader 2005 about the job market starting to loose steam and the danger that situation represents for the near future but bulls have been much more cautious than bears over the past few months so I think the trend is still up for now.

I can't recommend any position for stocks but I'm waiting for the moment to get long on treasuries when the market consensus on the economy shifts from having enough growth to concern the Fed to not enough growth.
 
I always assumed it was earnings and interest rates that drive a market upwards or downwards and without looking at statistics of earnings that have been already reported and going by just the bits and pieces I read about each day, it seems to me earnings are coming in good for many companies....and interest rates are still in a good area IMO...

As for stocks, I bought Calls on MOT approx 10 days ago due to I noticed a lot of call and stock Vol...(and not due to what I heard that Cramer was bullish on it)...Even today the vol and calls were yet again very heavy...

I also like 7-Eleven (SE) but I don't know why there are no options on it.

If I had to say higher or lower, I am putting my money on higher as of now.
 
Quote from hajimow:

In another posting at 3:17 today, I mentioned that I feel market has got exhausted and it is a good time to short that some people disagreed or asked the reasons. I gave out a list of the reasons but my main reason is my experience. I know that many of you guys have more experience than I do or are more successful than me but I also have seen some bloody situations in the market that 20% drop in a stock price is too normal to me. I have seen Bre-X Mineral and have been hurt by it. My money was evaporated in 24 hours. From $18 per share to 5 cents. It was halted more than 48 hours. This story goes back to around 1998 I think. That experience along with some others have given me vision and made me a successful trader thereafter. Now based on that background:
I see blood in TXN report that everyone is cheering and its price surged today to 32.40. Read their result carefully, Their revenue is down and they came with better than expected result by cutting their costs. You can not cut the cost for ever. It will hit your growth. They compare their current Q's OK performance to their last year's miserable performance. They compare gray to black and you see gray is shining. Many companies are like TXN.
High oil price is kicking in. job cuts, .....Terrorist attacks are doing reverse effect to the market. Investors are buying stocks to get that quick profit and ignoring those attacks damages.
More...

So, if a stock rises on perceived bad news, what does that tell us?
 
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