Is the Jobs forecast 50K or 70K?
- Thread starter rc5781
- Start date
CNBC is just like a company that lowballs the earnings expectations so there can be an upside suprise.
I'd use the dartboard method before their #.
I see the 75K on MSN
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/calendar/econ/current.asp
I'd use the dartboard method before their #.
I see the 75K on MSN
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/calendar/econ/current.asp
The number isn't ever a real # anyway, it is subject to the birth/death adjustment. The fed can make the number look like whatever they want it to.
A few months ago, they were expecting like +100K and had a minus 4K if i remember right. That allowed the 50 bp cut as everyone cried recession. Low and behold it was adjusted up to +90K or someting the next month. What a bunch of horse-shit!
Reading the fed mins yesterday, they see the need for more substantial cuts but how do they justify that with inflation running rampant?? They fuck with the report again tomorrow.
So my conspiracy theory of the day is that tomorrow will have a negative jobs #, thus creating the ability for either an emergency cut, or a guaranteed cut at the next meeting of 50 bp. (not that rate cuts will help this particular animal anyway)
A few months ago, they were expecting like +100K and had a minus 4K if i remember right. That allowed the 50 bp cut as everyone cried recession. Low and behold it was adjusted up to +90K or someting the next month. What a bunch of horse-shit!
Reading the fed mins yesterday, they see the need for more substantial cuts but how do they justify that with inflation running rampant?? They fuck with the report again tomorrow.
So my conspiracy theory of the day is that tomorrow will have a negative jobs #, thus creating the ability for either an emergency cut, or a guaranteed cut at the next meeting of 50 bp. (not that rate cuts will help this particular animal anyway)
Good luck all.Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
Consensus 70,000
Consensus Range 50,000 to 94,000
Unemployment Rate - Level
Consensus 4.8%
Consensus Range 4.7% to 4.8%
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change
Consensus 0.3%
Consensus Range 0.2% to 0.5%
Average Workweek - Level
Consensus 33.8hrs
Consensus Range 33.8hrs to 33.8hrs
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/repo...ment_situation/year/2008/yearly/01/index.html
the NFP has a double whammy, besides the accuracy or not of the 'consensus', because
of 'revisions', you now not only have to watch for the initial report but wait to learn if they've
revised the previous report and by how much since that too will affect prices
Consensus 70,000
Consensus Range 50,000 to 94,000
Unemployment Rate - Level
Consensus 4.8%
Consensus Range 4.7% to 4.8%
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change
Consensus 0.3%
Consensus Range 0.2% to 0.5%
Average Workweek - Level
Consensus 33.8hrs
Consensus Range 33.8hrs to 33.8hrs
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/repo...ment_situation/year/2008/yearly/01/index.html
the NFP has a double whammy, besides the accuracy or not of the 'consensus', because
of 'revisions', you now not only have to watch for the initial report but wait to learn if they've
revised the previous report and by how much since that too will affect prices
A recent Dow Jones survey placed the expectation at 50K
Briefing.com expects 75k
Briefing.com expects 75k
