Is the Fed's Cred Shot?

riskarb, from 9:30am thru this moment in time (11:25am) we've had buy signals only in the ES and ER. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess... hopefully -20pts lower and all of us are along for the short-side ride.

Until that happens, we cannot assume the Fed has no cred with the market. Is that not the theme of this specific thread?
 
Quote from austinp:

riskarb, from 9:30am thru this moment in time (11:25am) we've had buy signals only in the ES and ER. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess... hopefully -20pts lower and all of us are along for the short-side ride.

Until that happens, we cannot assume the Fed has no cred with the market. Is that not the theme of this specific thread?
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I think Bernanke was justified. I was positioned as such. Your post has nothing to do with the topic at hand. Will Bernanke's cred go to sh*t if we reverse at 1pm? Your myopic view is hilarious.

BTW, the ES[outright] and ER2[on beta] are underperforming. SOX +2.8%, Nas100 +1.9%.
 
Wow dude. Thats harsh. Ive read your journal pretty interesting stuff. You are right. None of us have your math backround. However, I noticed in your journal that you still lose money just like everyone else.
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

Wow dude. Thats harsh. Ive read your journal pretty interesting stuff. You are right. None of us have your math backround. However, I noticed in your journal that you still lose money just like everyone else.
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Yeah, okay... I am up $7mm ytd, but who cares about performance. My latest journal shows me within 100basis of flat%. The prior journal was better than 100% on 7-figs. I'll admit it's OPM. My earlier comments make no assertions to Austin's performance. He doesn't make public calls, he sells sh*t.
 
I'm purely an intraday trader at this time. The only thing that matters to me is one signal, execute that and move onto the next.

The only reason I posted anything to begin with was pointing out how most traders (myself included) tend to draw logical conclusions as fact based squarely upon things that MAY happen before they <i>ever</i> happen. Capiche`? That was my only point to share.

The Fed's cred is dead, it's a total disconnect IF and ONLY IF the markets tank as projected. I hope they do... I'd love to see any type of directional move intraday.

As for a myopic view... I'm an intraday trader using 3min and/or 233 tick charts. What other view is there for a trader like me to have?

Longer term, my guess is the market goes tank city before a rally. More than a few times in years past, I would think the same thing and be 100% wrong. Had I waited for confirmation in the charts, it would have been a lot more fruitful.

That's all I had to share: let price action play out before passing judgement. Ass u me ptions in trading are usually one big wedge that split traders from their hard-earned money. :>)
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

Ok. Then could you please offer some more advice. Im sure all us would appreciate it.
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Buy NDX digital calls struck at 1530 expiring in 7 days. The inflation figs are all-consuming. There is no other data.
 
riskarb, I'm not here to sell anyone anything. A quick check of my profile shows links to nowhere. I am here to fill some time while trades are working and/or waiting for trade signals... staring at the charts between activity is hard for me.

As for giving advice? The best advice I can possibly give to anyone is based upon what hasn't work for me and what has worked for me via mental - emotional standpoint. It is my presumtion that a topic thread in here is meant to explore the topic... is that correct? The topic of this thread is plain: is the Fed's cred dead or not. Maybe, but before passing judgement we need to see validation.
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

I think there is a complete disconnect between the markets and the fed. If the market tanks today I think the FOMC cred takes a big hit.
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ben and company have more information and insight into our economy then you or i ever will - their actions reflect such.

the fomc was correct to pause and give current policy time to take effect. people need to stop worring about why the fed is doing what they're doing and realize the fed is always right.
 
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