Is the crypto winter over?

[NoahA]

I'm not trying to dash your optimism. As previously stated, I too believe BTC will eventually get up to 100K. But it won't go straight up in one shot, which everyone seems to think or want to believe. There will be corrections along the way.

BTW I've been trading for over 30 years and you know how many times I've heard the exact same sentiment that you've expressed above? Too many to count.

I 100% agree with you and respect your experience, but dare I say, this time could be different. Bitcoin is different. This isn't pets.com during 2000. Bitcoin is likely to upend the entire financial system. Samson Mow has mission to onboard nation states, but of course has to keep quiet with the particulars. But when he said it's going to $1m, and soon, I wonder if he knows something we don't.

Price of course is the final say, but if everyone thinks a close below 69k is bad, all it will do is shake out the weak hands. A low of 60k would be awesome and a gift. Shame I didn't sell my ETH when I was almost at BE cause I would have more to scale in with.

 

[schizo]

I 100% agree with you and respect your experience, but dare I say, this time could be different. Bitcoin is different. This isn't pets.com during 2000. Bitcoin is likely to upend the entire financial system. Samson Mow has mission to onboard nation states, but of course has to keep quiet with the particulars. But when he said it's going to $1m, and soon, I wonder if he knows something we don't.

Price of course is the final say, but if everyone thinks a close below 69k is bad, all it will do is shake out the weak hands. A low of 60k would be awesome and a gift. Shame I didn't sell my ETH when I was almost at BE cause I would have more to scale in with.

As a starter, allow me to say that I too totally understand your perspective. I would love to see BTC shoot for the moon without any interuption. But as I laid out a few days ago, I believe we've went up too fast too soon. And we're taking a breather at the moment. Now, if this was any normal pullback, then I wouldn't be on edge like I am at the moment. But look at what happened since we crossed above 69K. The next day, it dropped and bounced off of 69K. Then it dropped again and retested 69K on the third day. That already tells me this breakout is weak at best. Sure enough, on the 4th day (today), it crossed well below 69k and looks like it will close below it.

I don't know who this Samson Mow dude is, but you could be right in the end. Bitcoin could be a force to reckon with that can possibly upend the entire financial system. But regardless, the market operates on the same principle as it has always done time immemorial, namely, the market is purely driven by greed and fear. Greed drives up the price while fear takes it down. Greed and fear are two core elements of our personality. And if there's one thing I've learned in all my years as a trader is that HUMAN PERSONALITY DON'T CHANGE, EVER. That is why a boom cycle is followed by a bust, and vice versa, time and time again.

Hey, I hope you don't take offense at what I've said thus far. Even though we might have our differences, I do enjoy hearing different perspectives so I encourage you to keep sharing your views. (You too John)

 

[The_Krakenite]

I did some thinking today...

Assuming the AI bubble isn't going to be a repeat of Pot-Stocks and Beanies, then it will really be used to design superiorly improved assets. So, our blue-chip cryptos like BTC/ETH will be replaced by something even better than a human can reproduce.

So knowing this in advance... be careful putting too many eggs in one basket (for the investors out there)...

I'm going to be more skeptical than optimist here... All I've seen so far is woke-garbage in --> woke-garbage out. It can't even think for itself, nor come up with any real solutions. But imagine... if it really could try to work on cures for cancer, etc.

What we've seen so far is orders of magnitude trailing that.

 

[schizo]

I did some thinking today...

Assuming the AI bubble isn't going to be a repeat of Pot-Stocks and Beanies, then it will really be used to design superiorly improved assets. So, our blue-chip cryptos like BTC/ETH will be replaced by something even better than a human can reproduce.

So knowing this in advance... be careful putting too many eggs in one basket (for the investors out there)...

I'm going to be more skeptical than optimist here... All I've seen so far is woke-garbage in --> woke-garbage out. It can't even think for itself, nor come up with any real solutions. But imagine... if it really could try to work on cures for cancer, etc.

What we've seen so far is orders of magnitude trailing that.

But it's the TECHNOLOGY that changed, not human behavior. That will never change. We're too much of idiots for that to happen. When the market goes up, we become the most greedy fu*kers, and when the market tanks we become crybabies fearing there would be no tomorrow unless Uncle Sam bails us out.

 

[NoahA]

Hey, I hope you don't take offense at what I've said thus far. Even though we might have our differences, I do enjoy hearing different perspectives so I encourage you to keep sharing your views. (You too John)

Not in the slightest. I worry I'm too bullish, so want to hear all perspectives.

Just watched this video about where the market is technically.

But I also have watched a few videos in the past few days of people sharing exit strategies and some suggesting that this rally will only go on for 6 months. I can't help but think that we are only getting started given that many coins haven't even breached there all time highs yet, but here are these guys already worried about the top.

I understand how crypto works in cycles and also the aspect of fear and greed. But what I don't understand is the type of macro background that will lead to this crash. Will the US government all of a sudden stop borrowing? If the economy turns into a depression then I can certainly understand why crypto will crash. But if the government keeps spending, that is fuel. If the government drops interest rates, that is even more fuel. And if the government raises interest rates, even they can't afford the payments.

So I just don't understand how Bitcoin could drop so severely given the background of a failing currency. The dollar would have to massively appreciate and kill the economy in order for Bitcoin to drop so heavily. There would have to be a major bout of deflation.

Nobody cared when crypto crashed in 2018 because it wasn't so systemic and part of the economy. When it crashed in 2021, that was just a lot of traders losing their stimulus checks. But if everybody runs for the exits in 2024, what are they running into? A money printer that is stuck on high???

I think the most pain for this cycle would be everyone expecting a massive crash, so they sell, but what instead happens is that Bitcoin takes over as the reserve asset much faster than anyone thought possible. I realize it's a small chance, but if Bitcoin really is the solution, I don't know how it can go through another cycle. The current monetary system with 2 trillion dollar deficits and interest expense being the largest part of government spending cannot last another cycle. I'm not even sure if the US can hold it together after the November elections because no matter the outcome, the other side is going to cause civil war.

My outrageous prediction is that people will realize you can't trust anything in this world except for a Bitcoin transaction. The need to be able to trust the money will be at the forefront of setting up a whole new system going forward and the election fiasco might even teach everyone to forego fighting over blue or red but just focus on getting the money right.

 

[johnarb]

Back in 2021 when the market was trading at the ATH, would you have listened to me if I had suggested you scale back or get out altogether? Probably not.

Wish y'all the best going forward

I was heavily invested into bitcoins and crypto assets at the top in 2021 just as I was at the start of the bull market in 2020

You're comparing us now to the end of the previous bull market cycle based on a little pullback because your chart is "scary",

as someone who has been in Bitcoin for a long time, I am very confident that you will be proven wrong and this is not the end of this bull market cycle

In 2021, there were no $1.5 Billion of new money buying every week and they are not bag holders, they are pent up demand for 10 years waiting to buy, and there's many many more of that money that will keep coming in for years

In 2021, not only was there new money but the scammers were blowing up and getting liquidated on the bitcoins and cryptos causing massive selling. Su Zhu and partners ,literally ghosted everyone

It was surreal. Massive positions and no communications. ZERO comms. As defi and cefi liquidation prices were getting hit, took down everyone, BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager and unbeknownst to us, even Genesis the biggest in TradFi

There were no bailouts. I heard Goldman Sachs (invested in Circle, Poloniex and other crypto firms) and others were approached, but none interested

The biggest money in TradFi wanted cryptos to burn and die

But here we are now. We got none of that shit anymore, except for the traders who are over-leveraged for short term getting liquidated

What we have are NEW MONEY by the billions of $ every week going into the Bitcoin spot etf's

And you wanna put fud that this is the top as it was in 2021

Thank you for the well wish. Good luck to you as you keep shorting but I think you will reconsider soon when Bitcoin breaks ath high again

 

[johnarb]

You did influence me a little, but mostly because of what you said about fear

That is exactly what I was seeing in the Convo. FEAR is being put out there that this is the top of the bull market cycle

I wasn't chiming in on trading setups and what not, but a little pull back and saying it's the end of the bull market, come on now

Fear-mongering is an enemy and I'm here to at least support the bull case

You, jbusse and others and I were together in the bear market , let us also be together in the bull market

I do not believe this is the end of this bull market and I've got million$ on the line and not bailing out

Mstr was down big at the open and could have continued to crash, as the US equities market was also down, I could have sold in a panic... but instead, I went to sleep

Fuck it, this is a bull market, you know!

 

[The_Krakenite]

If you want to know where BTC funds are going... look at what happened to GLD since its inception...

 

[long]

.

So it sounds like you've been through this before to know that what comes after these crazy parabolic moves are scary corrections

I’ve never been through anything like this. Coffee is the closest on the long side and CL is the closest on the short side. Bitcoin is a wild and scary BTC(H).

 

[jbusse]

That is exactly what I was seeing in the Convo. FEAR is being put out there that this is the top of the bull market cycle

I wasn't chiming in on trading setups and what not, but a little pull back and saying it's the end of the bull market, come on now

Fear-mongering is an enemy and I'm here to at least support the bull case

You, jbusse and others and I were together in the bear market , let us also be together in the bull market

I do not believe this is the end of this bull market and I've got million$ on the line and not bailing out

Mstr was down big at the open and could have continued to crash, as the US equities market was also down, I could have sold in a panic... but instead, I went to sleep

Fuck it, this is a bull market, you know!



View attachment 336198

I hope you picked a country with a low capital gains tax rate. Bitcoin you can hold forever; this one is getting close to your $1M exit.