You do have a point. The rally yesterday was incredible, and we are nowhere close to ATH, and the bull market is just getting started. Plus, its holding up incredibly well right now given the BTC drop. Thinking about cancelling some of those sell orders that are lower down.
Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Ok... all sell orders in SOL have been cancelled. The market is just too strong. Sure, it can hit the high of $186 and bounce off, but the fact that it already retraced almost the entire drop is incredible.
When looking at BTC, if this rally continues today, it will be a slightly smaller drop from March 5, which was 14%, and lasting barely more than a day. The only significant drop is on Jan 11 of 20% which lasted 11 days, and that was before anyone had any idea about what effect the ETFs would have. Ever since then, the drops are tiny in comparison to historical standards. So either you think the market is saving the dump for later, or the market is just too strong and no dump can happen because there is too much demand. If any orchestrated dump can't last for more than a day, the rally on this cycle might very well be one for the books. I've seen the recent episodes where Samson Mow talks about a $1m bitcoin soon, and it seems too outrageous to believe, but proof of that might be shown right below if we consider that the drawdowns just can't be made to happen.
![BTCUSD-BITFINEX[M] 240 Min #25 2024-03-15 06_57_10.046.png](https://test.elitetrader.com/et/attachments/btcusd-bitfinex-m-240-min-25-2024-03-15-06_57_10-046-png.336145/ "BTCUSD-BITFINEX[M] 240 Min #25 2024-03-15 06_57_10.046.png")
When looking at BTC, if this rally continues today, it will be a slightly smaller drop from March 5, which was 14%, and lasting barely more than a day. The only significant drop is on Jan 11 of 20% which lasted 11 days, and that was before anyone had any idea about what effect the ETFs would have. Ever since then, the drops are tiny in comparison to historical standards. So either you think the market is saving the dump for later, or the market is just too strong and no dump can happen because there is too much demand. If any orchestrated dump can't last for more than a day, the rally on this cycle might very well be one for the books. I've seen the recent episodes where Samson Mow talks about a $1m bitcoin soon, and it seems too outrageous to believe, but proof of that might be shown right below if we consider that the drawdowns just can't be made to happen.
.
Anyway, as far as hedging is concerned, you could certainly diversify with another less volatile one, although they would both likely suffer when the market tanks. So, if it were me, I'd look to short the one with similar vol as BTC/USD.
Good luck.
So it sounds like you've been through this before to know that what comes after these crazy parabolic moves are scary corrections.
Anyway, as far as hedging is concerned, you could certainly diversify with another less volatile one, although they would both likely suffer when the market tanks. So, if it were me, I'd look to short the one with similar vol as BTC/USD.
Good luck.
But that's exactly my point, I don't want to influence you into not selling Sol as you had planned
But when I see someone influencing others into thinking the pullback is very scary price action and the inflows are dumb money about to become bag holders, wait a minute, hold on, yo, this is a bull market
I remember making a promise not to talk about $100k, $200k, $1M until we break $70k, so now that we've broken $70k...
When Bitcoin hits $100k, remember the pullbacks were opportunities, just like the other pullbacks in the 20k, 30k 40k, 50k and now 70k levels
Back in 2021 when the market was trading at the ATH, would you have listened to me if I had suggested you scale back or get out altogether? Probably not. 
I'm of the opinion that markets move in cycles, long term or short term and you need to exercise more restraint when the market gets far too ahead of itself.
Alright, enough said on this topic. Let us go our merry ways, whatever that may be. Wish y'all the best going forward
I'm of the opinion that markets move in cycles, long term or short term and you need to exercise more restraint when the market gets far too ahead of itself.
Alright, enough said on this topic. Let us go our merry ways, whatever that may be. Wish y'all the best going forward
You did influence me a little, but mostly because of what you said about fear. It is true that the decision to get out was only based on where I got in, which is usually a stupid reason. The fact of the matter is that the chart looks really good, and SOL as you say has come a long way. Plus, because of this massive rally, its not one of those coins that aren't coming back. If stuff from last cycle isn't pumping now, I would guess it isn't going to anymore. I have small positions in the other coins that are still 70-80% off their highs. So those would be good candidates for selling close to entry price, if they ever get there, which I don't think they will, and hence I will sell those at a loss for tax purposes as this will be the first year I've ever had profits!
I have also watched recent videos about people talking about their exit strategy, and that I do think is important. I think ultimately, I will start scaling out above $200, and all the way to the ATH, and then leave maybe 25% or so to ride it high, with a strict stop so it doesn't go below the entry price.
I think for me, I know so much more about the cycles, and you're right, there is a time to get out. I know last year when I was getting in, fall of 2021, we were just break the previous high an everyone was calling for 100k, so I was trying to be patient, and of course, once you're down, you don't want to take the loss.Back in 2021 when the market was trading at the ATH, would you have listened to me if I had suggested you scale back or get out altogether? Probably not.
I'm of the opinion that markets move in cycles, long term or short term and you need to exercise more restraint when the market gets far too ahead of itself.
Alright, enough said on this topic. Let us go our merry ways, whatever that may be. Wish y'all the best going forward
But now after learning for the past 2 years, there are actually very good indicators that can help in timing the exit. I didn't know about these back then, and maybe they won't work as well for the next cycle top, but I will at least be basing my decision more so on objective reasons.
But your last point about the market getting too far ahead of itself we have to be careful about. Bitcoin can have one of those God candles for many different reasons, and it won't care about cycles or indicators or market sentiment. All that has to happen is one major piece of news comes out and the game completely changes. Consider this an event like coming off the gold standard.
I truly believe that bitcoin is fundamentally under priced because it will be the only thing that provides truth in the crazy world. Even something foundational like real estate will not be able to compete because RE can drop for so many reasons, and lets face it, the US is actively trying to turn the country to shit. I just watched a show about dams and how many in the US are at risk of major problems. One minute you have lake front property, next minute you're either washed away if you're down stream, or the water disappears so you have "mud front" property vs. "lake front".
When corporations and nation states get into bitcoin, none of these cycles will matter.
I'm not trying to dash your optimism. As previously stated, I too believe BTC will eventually get up to 100K. But it won't go straight up in one shot, which everyone seems to think or want to believe. There will be corrections along the way.
BTW I've been trading for over 30 years and you know how many times I've heard the exact same sentiment that you've expressed above? Too many to count.
The reason why I'm so antsy is because we've crossed back below 69K. In ordinary trading parlance, this is usually called a TRAP, which is frankly the worst thing a trader can face. Thank god, it's now back above 69K.
But if we close below 69K, we could see more selloffs in the coming days, possibly going all the way down to 60K (see the trendline below).
But if we close below 69K, we could see more selloffs in the coming days, possibly going all the way down to 60K (see the trendline below).