Yeah, but the March 5th drop came just when we were coming up against the 2021 ATH. This time, we're crossing back down. That has a different narrative altogether.
Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
You should short or add to the short if you think that strongly about it
That's fair, and we do have to give your view a bit of thought. But what I keep seeing is that the flows are not slowing down, and they are much bigger than anyone expected. I am also learning that many advisors are taking their time with jumping in, so its not like we are running out of interest after the first 2 months.
I do also think that some nation state is going to be announced eventually, and there are random wallets that I've seen posted which are accumulating quickly. So with bitcoin, its kind of like a stock on earnings day, but we don't know what day that is gonna be. All of a sudden, there is a sudden huge spike and if you're not in, you've missed a massive move. I mean imagine what will happen is Apple says they are converting some cash to bitcoin? Or what if Dubai or UAE makes a major announcement? I honestly worry about having cash in my account that isn't in bitcoin. Of course with a leveraged play, waiting is costing money, but I just don't see a move down that far. Once profit taking is done, and once leveraged longs are taken out, there is nothing on the horizon that could be bearish.
Maybe tomorrow
. I first wanna see how it reacts during the US market hours. Listen, I ain't trying to piss any of you off with my doomsday scenario but this does look worrisome. Just play it safe.
Still trails a little across time because it charges approximately 1% per year expense ratio. Yes, based on futures, but since it rolls over periodically it just takes some out each month and pays dividends.
Agree.
'They' need to shake people out though.There will be jolts no matter what the fundamentals and technicals look like.
Never been an easy ride and I dont foresee that changing.
Interestingly,the small retail that intended to hodl forever with a 'what I can afford to lose' holding,will be tested as those amounts become something significant.Pay off the car,buy a house,pay off the house,marry your girl etc etc.
Conviction will be tested at each and every price point and,of course,everybody has a number.
For me, not overleveraging is good advice. Tends to cloud my thinking. I couldn't fathom being short. But schizo has incredible discipline and seems to be vigilante watching the chart.
Maybe tomorrow
Listen, I ain't trying to piss any of you off with my doomsday scenario but this does look worrisome. Just play it safe.
I would not say pissed, more irritated than anything, no worries, I'll get over it
I stay away from trading and giving advice on trading, but I agreed with NoahA on buying the dip
2022 was the bear market, short all rallies
2024 is a bull market, and we btfd!
Everyone is traumatized by the bear market, and literally riches are being made right now and it's only getting started!
My position on Pepe last year is worth about ~500k, my last Wif I was trading a few months ago is worth over 300k both I sold for much less because of bear market traumas
Literally pain is preventing us from profiting, which is why people are selling at 70k for a little profit after waiting over 2 years
NoahA is about to sell his Sol, I do not tell him not to, even though Sol hitting $200 now is much much different than the Sol at $250 2 years ago
Sol is much much stronger adoption and ecosystem now, and is a viable threat to Eth now than 2 years ago (but don't wanna piss off lots of Eth supporters, I only have a small position on Sol part of a yield farm)
anyway, btfd, but of course nfa
I would not say pissed, more irritated than anything, no worries, I'll get over it
I stay away from trading and giving advice on trading, but I agreed with NoahA on buying the dip
2022 was the bear market, short all rallies
2024 is a bull market, and we btfd!
Everyone is traumatized by the bear market, and literally riches are being made right now and it's only getting started!
My position on Pepe last year is worth about ~500k, my last Wif I was trading a few months ago is worth over 300k both I sold for much less because of bear market traumas
Literally pain is preventing us from profiting, which is why people are selling at 70k for a little profit after waiting over 2 years
NoahA is about to sell his Sol, I do not tell him not to, even though Sol hitting $200 now is much much different than the Sol at $250 2 years ago
Sol is much much stronger adoption and ecosystem now, and is a viable threat to Eth now than 2 years ago (but don't wanna piss off lots of Eth supporters, I only have a small position on Sol part of a yield farm)
anyway, btfd, but of course nfa
Spot on.
Greed and fear as usual.
The run up trend has been steep and in my experience steep trend lines are usually tested pretty hard. Ever since Qatar was suggested here as the possible nation state that has been buying I’ve been thinking about the ATH being relative to the currency you are trying to accumulate, whether it be dollars, riyals, yen, etc. The larger up moves we’ve had that happened in the wee hours of the morning a few weeks ago lined up really well with the start of business hours in Qatar.
Your ATH line got me thinking about other currencies. Which BTC exchange rates have held the 2021 high without breaking it? (this pull-back) Maybe those currencies have the most influence on BTC movement at the moment. QAR has held the 2021 high today while the dollar has broke sharply. I’m thinking that if I can track different currencies vs BTC that I could hedge somehow against the dollar. That is if there’s one particular currency that seems to be less volatile/more steady vs BTC. If it switches to a different currency every week it’ll prove more difficult to develop a strategy. I’ll definitely be digging into this but it’ll be several days before I have the time to sit down to gather the data and analyze it. I hope some others here think it’s worth looking into.